Casino MTT 100+15 hand

[utmt40]

1st hand of the tourney. Blinds 25/50

Hero is Button with 4000.
Villan is MP2 with 4000.

Hero looks down at K /images/graemlins/spade.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif

a few folds Villan calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB completes and BB checks.


FLOP: Pot is (t250)

K /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

SB checks, BB checks, Villan checks, CO checks, Hero bets t200, SB folds, BB folds, Villan calls, CO calls.

TURN: J /images/graemlins/heart.gif Pot is (t850)

Villan checks, CO checks, Hero bets t400, Villan raises t800 total. CO folds, Hero calls.
Now before the river card comes out Villan pushes all-in for t2950.

RIVER: 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif Pot is now because of his all in move (t5400)
If you are Hero what do you do here?

Will post results later.

[utmt40]

Anyone?

[utmt40]

Bump

[Lloyd]

Think about what hands he could have the way he played the hand. The possibilities include AA, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ, AT, KQ, T9. Some of these are more likely the others. I think QQ and JJ are less likely since most people wouldn't limp with these hands first to enter the pot, AA maybe, but QQ/JJ not as likely. AK is certainly possible although that means he's got the last K and he limped with AK, something else most people don't. AQ is possible although one of the Qs is out and again, most people don't limp first to enter with AQ. He'd limp with AT but you do have a T. KQ means he's got the last K and one of the remaining Qs. T9 is a real possibility.

So I think his most likely holdings are either AA or T9 and with the paired board and how strongly you both have played the hand, I'd say T9 could be THE most likely. The reality is that there are few hands you're ahead of - AA and AQ. You're behind all the other possibilities.

I'd lay it down.

[utmt40]

Very good reply.

[locutus2002]

Hero calls.

I think villain made hero for a K (not to hard).
Any player would have raised with AK preflop so both players can rule AK out of the other hand.

The fact that villain doesn't care if a K, Q, or J comes on the river tells me that he has the K too and it will be a split pot.

[locutus2002]

If he had T9 he wouldn't stack off before the river, as full houses are very possible and obvious if a k,q, j .

[utmt40]

Anyone else care to comment. Bump for morning crowd.

[utmt40]

Hero thinks for a minute and folds showing his King face up. Perp then shows KQ and Hero feels damn good about his fold.

[locutus2002]

Bad bet for villain.

[Percula]

There are only three hands I can put him on, KQ, KJ or AT... if he is not bluffing.

But that AI in the dark smells, no reaks of Kx (not Q or J) and is trying to push you off the pot. If he has KQ or KJ so be it, call and either double up/split or go home.