I own a pattern mapper [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

SmileyEH

06-13-2005, 04:13 PM

The raisers were passive if I recall. I was 90% sure the 3bet meant aces or kings. The blinds were terrible and loose. I figured this was standard, as I'm most likely getting a little better than 4-1 or better, and need to make back about 10-12small bets postflop if I hit. Kosher?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 3-bets, Hero calls

-SmileyEH

JimGil

06-13-2005, 04:16 PM

I would have folded without hesitation.

Entity

06-13-2005, 04:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Kosher?

[/ QUOTE ]

As kosher as a pulled pork sandwich, mi amigo.

jba

06-13-2005, 04:23 PM

I would definitely fold this. I think sometimes you can cover the odds but I'm not sure you can count on it enough for this to be EV+ in the long run. I would be more inclined to try this with aggressive post flop players

TheDelChop

06-13-2005, 04:46 PM

Yeah this is really pushing it. If the 3-bet doesn't represent Aces or Kings your not likely to get as much action as you would need, or you may run into a better set.

2 bets go ahead and call but 3 bets is really to much.

SmileyEH

06-13-2005, 04:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah this is really pushing it. If the 3-bet doesn't represent Aces or Kings your not likely to get as much action as you would need, or you may run into a better set.

2 bets go ahead and call but 3 bets is really to much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess the whole point of this is that I called where I normally wouldn't. I think 90% of the time we are going to the flop 5 way for 3 bets each, and the preflop 3bettor has aces or kings. Under these circumstances I figured at the time it was profitable - at any rate its closer than an auto fold.

-SmileyEH

A_C_Slater

06-13-2005, 04:53 PM

So if the flop comes A /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif you will fold since you are 90% sure the AA or KK is out there?

BigEndian

06-13-2005, 04:54 PM

You need to get your money in these situations on average - not have an outside shot at getting your set money back. Calling 3 bets cold against passive players without having 6 or more to the flop is not a great prospect at all.

- Jim

brettbrettr

06-13-2005, 04:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So if the flop comes A /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif you will fold since you are 90% sure the AA or KK is out there?

[/ QUOTE ]

nh.

jskills

06-13-2005, 04:57 PM

You love your position here, but calling two cold? No way.

3 opponents in a (once) raised pot, I probably would (and then curse when I miss), but I couldn't for two bets. I don't think it's the right price to pay to see the flop in hopes of hitting one of your two cards.

belloc

06-13-2005, 05:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You love your position here, but calling two cold? No way.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's calling three cold here. A fortiori.

jskills

06-13-2005, 05:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You love your position here, but calling two cold? No way.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's calling three cold here. A fortiori.

[/ QUOTE ]

I stand corrected. I meant calling two raises. But that is THREE cold. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

SeaEagle

06-13-2005, 05:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm most likely getting a little better than 4-1 or better, and need to make back about 10-12small bets postflop if I hit

[/ QUOTE ]
Let's say you'll win this hand 1 in 10 times - you're 8.5/1 to flop a set and won't win all the time when you do and will virtually always fold the flop UI. You need to collect 27sb/13.5bb when you hit the flop to make this a +EV play. You'll have about 5bb in PF, so you need to make 8.5bb post flop. That's a heckuva lot of bets just to break even.

BTW, if you're 90% sure that you're up against at least one big PP, then you're going to run into set over set more than 10% of the time you make a set. Sounds painful to me.

jason_t

06-13-2005, 05:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The raisers were passive if I recall. I was 90% sure the 3bet meant aces or kings. The blinds were terrible and loose. I figured this was standard, as I'm most likely getting a little better than 4-1 or better, and need to make back about 10-12small bets postflop if I hit. Kosher?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 3-bets, Hero calls

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no way that calling here is profitable. You're likely getting 7:3 or 9:4 depending on whether or not either of the blinds come along (unlikely) and if UTG caps. For each bet you put in preflop, you have to make up ~10 SB since you're 7.5:1 to flop a set, but flopping a set doesn't guarantee a win and can be expensive the times you're not good. So each time you win this hand you need to net ~30--40 SB. That's insane.

SmileyEH

06-13-2005, 05:45 PM

I'm getting at least 10.5 to 3, and as I said both the blinds were very loose. A lot of the time it will be 13 to 3 or 12.5 to 3.

In this situation its not an automatic fold.

-SmileyEH

27offsooot

06-13-2005, 05:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The raisers were passive if I recall.

[/ QUOTE ]

This call sucks for the PF odds and the post-flop expectation.

jason_t

06-13-2005, 06:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm getting at least 10.5 to 3, and as I said both the blinds were very loose. A lot of the time it will be 13 to 3 or 12.5 to 3.

In this situation its not an automatic fold.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

There are still too many bets to make up postflop. If everyone comes along for 3 bets you're getting 12:3 and need to make up ~18 SB postflop. If everyone comes along for 4 bets you're getting 16:4 and need to make up ~24 SB postflop. This will be difficult especially since you said they are passive and terrible.

bobbyi

06-13-2005, 06:13 PM

Since the first raise came from UTG, he is often going to cap it. Even if the blinds are loose, you can't count on them coming along here. You don't want to play this hand for four bets in a four-handed pot.

bakku

06-13-2005, 06:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm getting at least 10.5 to 3, and as I said both the blinds were very loose. A lot of the time it will be 13 to 3 or 12.5 to 3.

In this situation its not an automatic fold.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

There are still too many bets to make up postflop. If everyone comes along for 3 bets you're getting 12:3 and need to make up ~18 SB postflop. If everyone comes along for 4 bets you're getting 16:4 and need to make up ~24 SB postflop. This will be difficult especially since you said they are passive and terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of us has bad math cuz I'm getting 10.5SB postflop for 12:3 and 14SB postflop for 16:4.

SmileyEH

06-13-2005, 06:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm getting at least 10.5 to 3, and as I said both the blinds were very loose. A lot of the time it will be 13 to 3 or 12.5 to 3.

In this situation its not an automatic fold.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

There are still too many bets to make up postflop. If everyone comes along for 3 bets you're getting 12:3 and need to make up ~18 SB postflop. If everyone comes along for 4 bets you're getting 16:4 and need to make up ~24 SB postflop. This will be difficult especially since you said they are passive and terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I've thought a lot about what is a reasonable number of bets to make up. I think its closer than what people are making it out to be, but in the end its probably just a +++variance move.

-SmileyEH

jason_t

06-13-2005, 06:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm getting at least 10.5 to 3, and as I said both the blinds were very loose. A lot of the time it will be 13 to 3 or 12.5 to 3.

In this situation its not an automatic fold.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

There are still too many bets to make up postflop. If everyone comes along for 3 bets you're getting 12:3 and need to make up ~18 SB postflop. If everyone comes along for 4 bets you're getting 16:4 and need to make up ~24 SB postflop. This will be difficult especially since you said they are passive and terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of us has bad math cuz I'm getting 10.5SB postflop for 12:3 and 14SB postflop for 16:4.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're using 7.5:1. I'm using 10:1 as explained in my first post in this thread.

jason_t

06-13-2005, 06:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm getting at least 10.5 to 3, and as I said both the blinds were very loose. A lot of the time it will be 13 to 3 or 12.5 to 3.

In this situation its not an automatic fold.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

There are still too many bets to make up postflop. If everyone comes along for 3 bets you're getting 12:3 and need to make up ~18 SB postflop. If everyone comes along for 4 bets you're getting 16:4 and need to make up ~24 SB postflop. This will be difficult especially since you said they are passive and terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I've thought a lot about what is a reasonable number of bets to make up. I think its closer than what people are making it out to be, but in the end its probably just a +++variance move.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

Who cares about variance? Either a play is +EV or -EV. I think this is one is -EV.

Edit: And it's not close.

nolanfan34

06-13-2005, 06:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm getting at least 10.5 to 3, and as I said both the blinds were very loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even loose blinds will fold once in a while when it's 3-bet to them. I think you're counting on this being a slightly +EV play, ONLY if they both call. If they both fold and it's capped with 3 players to the flop, no way this is +EV.

This would be a very easy fold for me. You can do all the hypothetical math you want, but there's no way you're going to make up enough bets EVERY time you flop a set.

BigEndian

06-13-2005, 06:29 PM

I disagree. I think it's a clear -EV play. There have been quite a few posts like this on this board, you can dig into the Search function and the archives for more analysis.

Also something worth keeping in mind, one of the marks of a good poker player is the willingness to self-analyze and not letting ego get in the way. I think you're holding on to this one a little too tightly.

- Jim

bakku

06-13-2005, 06:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm getting at least 10.5 to 3, and as I said both the blinds were very loose. A lot of the time it will be 13 to 3 or 12.5 to 3.

In this situation its not an automatic fold.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

There are still too many bets to make up postflop. If everyone comes along for 3 bets you're getting 12:3 and need to make up ~18 SB postflop. If everyone comes along for 4 bets you're getting 16:4 and need to make up ~24 SB postflop. This will be difficult especially since you said they are passive and terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of us has bad math cuz I'm getting 10.5SB postflop for 12:3 and 14SB postflop for 16:4.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're using 7.5:1. I'm using 10:1 as explained in my first post in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're forgetting to factor in the times you win unimproved. FWIW, I think PF is pretty close here but I'd fold too.

Argus

06-13-2005, 06:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Who cares about variance? Either a play is +EV or -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
Lots of people care about variance. Let's say we flip a coin. If it's heads you pay me $10000, and if it's tails I pay you $10001. That is definitely +EV for you, but it's also high variance and many people wouldn't take it on. This particular situation aside, some people aren't willing to make decisions that are marginally +EV when they involve high variance. And that does not make them unsuccessful gamblers.

jason_t

06-13-2005, 06:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Who cares about variance? Either a play is +EV or -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
Lots of people care about variance. Let's say we flip a coin. If it's heads you pay me $10000, and if it's tails I pay you $10001. That is definitely +EV for you, but it's also high variance and many people wouldn't take it on. This particular situation aside, some people aren't willing to make decisions that are marginally +EV when they involve high variance. And that does not make them unsuccessful gamblers.

[/ QUOTE ]

With a large enough bankroll, in the long run this variance is irrelevant.

Argus

06-13-2005, 06:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Who cares about variance? Either a play is +EV or -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
Lots of people care about variance. Let's say we flip a coin. If it's heads you pay me $10000, and if it's tails I pay you $10001. That is definitely +EV for you, but it's also high variance and many people wouldn't take it on. This particular situation aside, some people aren't willing to make decisions that are marginally +EV when they involve high variance. And that does not make them unsuccessful gamblers.

[/ QUOTE ]

With a large enough bankroll, in the long run this variance is irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]
With a large enough bankroll -EV is irrelevant.

SmileyEH

06-13-2005, 06:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With a large enough bankroll -EV is irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

This I like.

-SmileyEH

jason_t

06-13-2005, 06:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Who cares about variance? Either a play is +EV or -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
Lots of people care about variance. Let's say we flip a coin. If it's heads you pay me $10000, and if it's tails I pay you $10001. That is definitely +EV for you, but it's also high variance and many people wouldn't take it on. This particular situation aside, some people aren't willing to make decisions that are marginally +EV when they involve high variance. And that does not make them unsuccessful gamblers.

[/ QUOTE ]

With a large enough bankroll, in the long run this variance is irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]
With a large enough bankroll -EV is irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not in the long run.

brettbrettr

06-13-2005, 06:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Lots of people care about variance. Let's say we flip a coin. If it's heads you pay me $10000, and if it's tails I pay you $0001.

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming hero is adequately rolled this is not a fair analogy.

carpe_chipem

06-13-2005, 07:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The raisers were passive if I recall.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is a recall anything like a reraise? If it is, damn, I'm gonna have to try that sometime. If I can make raisers passive just by recalling I could rule post-flop.

jason_t

06-13-2005, 07:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The raisers were passive if I recall.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is a recall anything like a reraise? If it is, damn, I'm gonna have to try that sometime. If I can make raisers passive just by recalling I could rule post-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep lurking.

Argus

06-13-2005, 07:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With a large enough bankroll, in the long run this variance is irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]
With a large enough bankroll -EV is irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]
Let's say we can flip coins at the rate of 20 a minute. With the rest of our lives to play, we'll probably get pretty good at it. I have a large bankroll though, so I'm only willing to flip coins for 6 hours a day, 300 days a year. I have my finances to manage, super models to bang, and yachts to sail. A bankroll as small as 13 billion would probably suffice to keep me playing for as long a run as I live.

Argus

06-13-2005, 07:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lots of people care about variance. Let's say we flip a coin. If it's heads you pay me $10000, and if it's tails I pay you $0001.

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming hero is adequately rolled this is not a fair analogy.

[/ QUOTE ]
The amount of variance you accept affects what "adequately rolled" means, so some players may be wiser to pass on very slim +EV situations where to cost to play is high. Yes I know that in the long run you will make less doing this, but that does not make it incorrect strategy.

SmileyEH

06-13-2005, 07:08 PM

like 30 posts and still no smileyGEY. What gives homey?

-SmileyEH

thirddan

06-13-2005, 07:08 PM

im in the this is an pretty easy fold group...

also keep in mind that you have to add a few extra bets to the pot each time you flop a set and do win to make up for the numerous bets you will lose when you flop a set and still get beat...

brettbrettr

06-13-2005, 07:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
but that does not make it incorrect strategy.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, of course not. I'm distinguishing "EV" from "correct strategy" so that EV is simply the math behind a given bet and has no relation to a person's strategy/goals/what have you. So while it might be "correct" for a person to pass up an +EV proposition, it is -EV to do so. This make any sense?

Piiop

06-13-2005, 07:17 PM

Yes, like jason_t already said, variance is not the issue here. The issue is whether this play is +EV or -EV. The answer is -.

Klepton

06-13-2005, 08:41 PM

wow

jason_t

06-13-2005, 09:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm getting at least 10.5 to 3, and as I said both the blinds were very loose. A lot of the time it will be 13 to 3 or 12.5 to 3.

In this situation its not an automatic fold.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

There are still too many bets to make up postflop. If everyone comes along for 3 bets you're getting 12:3 and need to make up ~18 SB postflop. If everyone comes along for 4 bets you're getting 16:4 and need to make up ~24 SB postflop. This will be difficult especially since you said they are passive and terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of us has bad math cuz I'm getting 10.5SB postflop for 12:3 and 14SB postflop for 16:4.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're using 7.5:1. I'm using 10:1 as explained in my first post in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're forgetting to factor in the times you win unimproved. FWIW, I think PF is pretty close here but I'd fold too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hard to win UI in what Smiley says is likely to be a four-way pot.

jason_t

06-13-2005, 09:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With a large enough bankroll, in the long run this variance is irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]
With a large enough bankroll -EV is irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]
Let's say we can flip coins at the rate of 20 a minute. With the rest of our lives to play, we'll probably get pretty good at it. I have a large bankroll though, so I'm only willing to flip coins for 6 hours a day, 300 days a year. I have my finances to manage, super models to bang, and yachts to sail. A bankroll as small as 13 billion would probably suffice to keep me playing for as long a run as I live.

[/ QUOTE ]

Long run is longer than that.