99 hand at level 1

[schwza]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t785)
UTG (t765)
UTG+1 (t1005)
MP1 (t740)
MP2 (t565)
MP3 (t770)
CO (t805)
Button (t1750)
SB (t815)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls t15, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t100</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls t85, UTG folds.

Flop: (t225) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets t175</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t685 (All-In)</font>

[Shilly]

This is pretty read-dependent, and I'm guessing you don't have any reads because it's level 1. His larger flop bet looks more like a continuation bet than a value bet, so I think the push looks good. Plus, you've got the chance to lucksack him with your running draws.

[pearljam]

why not just fold pre-flop? I think this is a mistake, especially with an UTG limper.

[gumpzilla]

Not as wild about this one. I probably fold to the preflop bet, unless I have some reason to think that the raiser is a big donkey. Barring some kind of read, that big raise is probably TT-QQ, AQ-AJ (I think AA-KK, AK he'd play in a slightly gentler manner; maybe 77-88 are in there as well.) He won't fold the overpairs in this situation, because he won't give you credit for a 5 or 77, really, and unless he's pretty good he's not going to be cowed at the prospect of a better overpair. So say he folds ~60% of the time (AQ-AJ). In that case, this seems like the flop play is likely to be marginally profitable. However, calling preflop with this plan in mind doesn't seem super productive because you can't be too happy in any situation where your 99 isn't an overpair.

[OrcaDK]

Fold preflop, push flop.

[45suited]

I would have folded pre-flop, but that being said, I like your flop push.

[Shilly]

Oh, and I fold preflop too.

[MastiffPaul]

I'm hesitant to make this move so early in the tournament. He could just as easily have an overpair as overcards; you lose this hand as often as you win it, I think. I don't think it's necessary to move now. Wait for a better opportunity later in the tournament.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and I fold preflop too.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, looks pretty consistent: fold pre-flop. i'm surprised everyone agrees so much - that seems pretty tight to me. what do you do with TT? nobody folds JJ i hope, right? even folding TT seems pretty ridiculous, but i'm open to discussion.

btw, he had KK.

[gumpzilla]

Well, you're putting in 1/8 of your stack preflop in level 1. That's an awful lot to put in for a hand like 99. Maybe at Party it's different, but a 7 BB raise is going to be a biggish hand almost 100% of the time, in my experience. The best holdings (for you) that you could be facing realistically are AK, AQ, AJ, and maybe KQ. So I'm pretty upset if any broadway come - maybe I fire out if an A comes on the hope that he's TT-KK - and likely have to checkfold there. On a board with 99 as an overpair, I think your c/r line is marginally profitable, as I mentioned before, but this is going to be less than 50% of flops, I'm pretty sure, and the marginal profitability isn't going to be made up in the other 50% of flops where you frequently end up check/folding. With stacks of that size you barely, if at all, have the implied odds for your set, and you're probably behind. Calling if he'd raised to 60 is a lot more understandable, but with the raise of that size I'm folding 99% of the time.

[Bigwig]

I'm folding preflop. 99 is a dog to the range you're facing here, you're out of position, and you don't have the stack to call for set value. It's not tight. It's an aggressive play designed to preserve chips for later situations.

I would likely fold TT, too. JJ is about 50/50 between calling and folding. I simply don't want to reraise here and get in a race on level 1 with hooks. QQ I'm going broke.

[Unarmed]

Fold preflop.
Fold flop.

What about his flop bet looks weak to you?
If he's c-betting AK it'll be more like 125.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's c-betting AK it'll be more like 125.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this is fairly ridiculous. you don't know this guy. this kind of analysis is about as reliable as reading entrails. not saying the advice is wrong, but i think the reasoning is bad.

[Unarmed]

Let me rephrase.
I have no idea what Villain has.
I'm check/folding this by default.
If I sense weakness I'll come over the top.
He bet 175 into a 225 pot.
What about that seems weak to you?

Also, I don't have to know the guy.
Harrington says continuation bets are 1/2 pot and the typical c-better follows this "rule" to the T. The only way I'm pushing this is if I get *some* indication that he might be on overs. A weak bet, while not absolute proof, gives me some indication he might be.

[Moonsugar]

I like a PF call from the button here, not from the BB.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me rephrase.
I have no idea what Villain has.
I'm check/folding this by default.
If I sense weakness I'll come over the top.
He bet 175 into a 225 pot.
What about that seems weak to you?

Also, I don't have to know the guy.
Harrington says continuation bets are 1/2 pot and the typical c-better follows this "rule" to the T. The only way I'm pushing this is if I get *some* indication that he might be on overs. A weak bet, while not absolute proof, gives me some indication he might be.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't really like playing guessing games about "does weak mean strong or does weak mean weak?"

my thinking was "i'm going to the felt with this hand, might as well extract some chips from AK/AQ." in retrospect, i don't think that was a very good plan, but that's what it was.

[Unarmed]

Here's the way I look at it:

Say Villain bets one of two amounts, 175 or 125, and he has either AA or AKo. He'll bet either amount with AA, but I'm thinking he'll bet 175 more than 50% of the time due to the draw. (this makes no sense given the action and the fact its HU but then again, most players don't make sense)

If he has AK, he'll bet 175 or 125. I'm thinking he'll bet 125 a greater % of the time because he's bluffing and doesn't want to spew chips.

Therefore, I am more likely to C/R a 125 bet than a 175 bet. Is there anything wrong with that logic? I realize many top players ignore bet size altogether but I've had great success attacking weak bets at the $22s through $55s.

YMMV.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there anything wrong with that logic?

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't know. maybe not. i think any compelling argument you could make would have to be experience-based rather than logic-based though. i think you could make an equally convincing argument (on paper at least) of the opposite of what you said:

he'll know that i'm thinking

[everything you said].

therefore, i should interpret the bets the opposite way.

now, i believe it is true from experience that a minimum 3bet pre-flop is precisely AA a fairly high percentage of the time. if your experience has taught you that what you said in your post is true, then that's a valuable tip and i'll keep my eye out for it. it would be frickin' awesome to have some idea of a pfr's holding based on the size on their flop bet.

[mosdef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is there anything wrong with that logic?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you could make an equally convincing argument (on paper at least) of the opposite of what you said:

he'll know that i'm thinking

[everything you said].



[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think so. you're giving credit to your opponent for one more level of thinking than he is likely to have, in my opinion.

[CarlSpackler]

This is a lower stakes sng, right (33 or lower)? In this situation, if you think you have a significant edge over your competition at the table, I think this is an easy fold preflop. Why put in 10.6% of your stack, out of position, against an opponent who you have no reads on, with a hand that at best is probably a coin flip?

Once you make this call, however, you got about as good of flop as you could hope for. I don't like the cr here, because if the villain bets, you have no idea where you're at. I think you should bet out 125-140 here on the flop, and plan on pushing the turn if he calls. If the villain reraises you allin after your flop bet, you can still get away from the hand, as you're almost definitely behind.

[schwza]

yeah, it's a 33.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should bet out 125-140 here on the flop, and plan on pushing the turn if he calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

i really don't like that line. i think betting and giving up if you get called/raised is viable, but there's no reason to continue once the flop is called.

[CarlSpackler]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah, it's a 33.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should bet out 125-140 here on the flop, and plan on pushing the turn if he calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

i really don't like that line. i think betting and giving up if you get called/raised is viable, but there's no reason to continue once the flop is called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Frankly, I'm not crazy about pushing the turn either, after reanalyzing what I just said. I was just thinking how I would play an overpair on that draw heavy flop if I was the villain, and I definitely wouldn't just call your flop bet. The more I think about it, pushing the turn is pretty bad, because you're only going to get called when you're beat, unless an Ace comes down and your opponent is able to lay down his hand. If the villain calls your flop bet with a big ace here, he'll probably just check it down anyway.