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View Full Version : Question on a casino-style gimmick bet


skeeter33
06-13-2005, 03:35 PM
At hold 'em game I play at, they just started offerering a side bet, a little like you see in a Caribbean Stud game.

Before the hand is dealt you put up your bet. You get paid 2-1 on any two suited cards, and 10-1 on a pocket pair. What is the casion edge, if any here? I know it's 3.25-1 against suited cards, and 16-1 against being dealt a pocket pair, but do you have to factor in that you are being paid a winner on EITHER bet. Any info would be appreciated.

kiddj
06-13-2005, 03:48 PM
Does this mean for a $1 bet, you get $3 return on 2 suited?

kiddj
06-13-2005, 03:56 PM
Are you sure this is the right payout? This bet, as you have stated it, is high +EV. (0.2353)*1 + (0.0588)*9 - (0.7059)*1 = +0.0588

Are you sure it's any 2 suited?

LetYouDown
06-13-2005, 03:58 PM
What if you fold? This makes no sense. What casino is offering this? They're out of their minds.

skeeter33
06-13-2005, 04:20 PM
kiddj,

Please explain your numbers, I am new to the board, and this has me stumped. Are my basic numbers right for a hold 'em starting hand?

kiddj
06-13-2005, 04:35 PM
[ QUOTE ]
kiddj,

Please explain your numbers, I am new to the board, and this has me stumped. Are my basic numbers right for a hold 'em starting hand?

[/ QUOTE ]
312 two-suited combos
78 pocket pair combos
1326 total combos

In 312 out of 1326 hands, you will win $1
In 78 out of 1326 hands, you will win $9
In 936 out of 1326 hands, you lose $1

Expected Value (EV):
(312/1326)*$1 + (78/1326)*$9 - (936/1326)*1 = $0.0588

So, for every $1.00 you bet, you expect to profit just under $0.06. (If I messed something up, I'm sure someone will correct me.)

Now, is this for real or did you make it up? Do you have to show down your hand to get paid?

LetYouDown
06-13-2005, 04:39 PM
Math looks right to me. I still can't imagine any self-respecting casino doing this. What kind of limits are placed on the amount you can wager? Find a $2/4 table, bet the max on this and call every winning hand to the river if you're required to show down.

skeeter33
06-13-2005, 05:14 PM
kidd, the way you have it calculated is based on the casino paying you 2$ of their $ for every one of yours, and 10 of their $ for every one of yours, correct?

skeeter33
06-13-2005, 05:16 PM
It's not a self-respecting casino, and no the hand doesn't have to be shown down! LOL

Thanks for the help guys.

nycplayer
06-13-2005, 05:52 PM
If you change the payout from 10-1 to 9-1 for a PP, then the house edge is just about: 0.0000000000000001, which is almost a fair game.

LetYouDown
06-13-2005, 05:54 PM
How do they know what you hold if you fold preflop? If you have 2-3 suited and want to fold, but get paid on the side bet...how does that work? I don't use the word retarded very often, but this is leaning that way.

skeeter33
06-13-2005, 06:06 PM
You just put a chip on top of your cards and lay them on the side.

PairTheBoard
06-13-2005, 07:01 PM
You say payoffs of 10-1 and 2-1? Let's get clear on this. If you bet $1 and get suited cards do they let you keep your $1 and pay you an additional $2? That's 2-1. If you bet $1 and get a pair do they let you keep your $1 and pay you an additional $10? That's 10-1.

PairTheBoard

9cao
06-13-2005, 07:05 PM
If everyone at the table takes that bet the casino will lose like $.60 on average but still make $3 on the rake. So it is still -EV for the table to play.

skeeter33
06-13-2005, 07:08 PM
That is correct, pair the board.

PairTheBoard
06-13-2005, 07:28 PM
In that case the +EV for a $1 bet is:

2*12/51 + 10*3/51 - (1 - 12/51 - 3/51) =

.4706 + .5882 - .7059 = $.353

That's one Helluva Poker Promotion


PairTheBoard

kiddj
06-13-2005, 07:56 PM
[ QUOTE ]
In that case the +EV for a $1 bet is:

2*12/51 + 10*3/51 - (1 - 12/51 - 3/51) =

.4706 + .5882 - .7059 = $.353

That's one Helluva Poker Promotion


PairTheBoard

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, that's how i calculated it originally, but I figured worse case scenario was: you give them $1, and they give you $2 or $10 back (including the $1 you gave them) if you win. It's +EV either way.

Bet as much as you can on the side bet and play break even poker.

AaronBrown
06-13-2005, 08:54 PM
What I don't like about this bet is it influences the play of the hand. If you see people folding but keeping their hands, you know they are suited or paired. Granted, this isn't very valuable information most of the time, but the silly gambling shouldn't interfere with the poker.

tylerdurden
06-13-2005, 11:14 PM
How do they pay this out? This has to be a total nightmare for the dealers. They can't be paying out of their chip tray, can they? The chip tray should have a constant amount of chips in it.