KJs HU OOP on turn and river [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

Aaron W.

06-13-2005, 01:37 PM

Nothing solid yet on villain. He seems a little loose, a little aggressive, but it's far too early to be putting large amounts of faith in those reads.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 4 folds, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

River: (6 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero ...

What do you consider in this spot?

shadow29

06-13-2005, 01:40 PM

Your bet is fine on the turn. You have folding equity, a gutshot and I think that you would have heard from an A on the flop. Maybe he's scared of his kicker, but your turn bet is fine.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say c/r the river. It might be a little too advanced for 1/2. If it is let me know.

edit- now that i think about it im not sure this line would be best. ill mull some more.

SteveL91

06-13-2005, 01:41 PM

I generally run through the possible hands I think he'd limp with in that position, then compare those hands to the flop texture and see if there are any likely draws. Going off your info, I don't think he's folding the river for another bet, but these situations are a definite weakness of mine.

handsome

06-13-2005, 02:09 PM

I dunno about that turn.
Bet and fold to a raise.

Fantam

06-13-2005, 02:10 PM

So if UTG+1 is a little bit loose, what will he be calling on the flop and turn with?

I would imagine something like a small to medium pocket pair,Ax, middle or bottom pair. I doubt that he would have anything better, otherwise he would probably have raised the flop, particularly if he is a little bit agressive.

I think UTG would have to be extremely loose if he only had Tx or worse.

So I think that most times you are beaten on the river.

Normally I would say that you should check on the river so as not to value bet UTG's marginal hands which beat you for him, as he will probably call if he is an agressive player.

However as UTG has only called the whole way. And with the 2nd A falling on the river, a bluff bet on the end is probably your best chance of picking up the pot, as UTG may fear that you have AK or AQ and fold.

If UTG then 3-bets the river, I think you should fold as now you are almost certainly beaten.

karitek

06-13-2005, 02:14 PM

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't like the flop bet at all. You only have a BDFD and a BDSD. You are behind to any Ax - which LAGs love to play.

What do you put UTG+1 on when he calls? He's probably not on a draw since the board is rainbow. He could have 22 or 44, but i think those aren't that likely.

So fold the flop. Definitely fold the turn. But since you did neither, you have to bet out that river and fold to a raise.

Redd

06-13-2005, 02:16 PM

I'm intrigued by the flop play. Do you think both opponents will fold more than 1 time in 6 here?

tiltaholic

06-13-2005, 02:25 PM

this may not be correct, but i primarily consider how often i expect him to fold and how ballsy i think he is (to raise a better hand). if i feel he is highly likely to call with a better hand than to raise (as he should) then i am more inclined to bet (and to give him a chance to fold).

however...i think this might be a huge weakness in my game.

(and i think the turn bet is goot.)

Aaron W.

06-13-2005, 02:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm intrigued by the flop play. Do you think both opponents will fold more than 1 time in 6 here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on the flop texture (not many mid-range cards), I think I may actually have the best hand right now. With one early position limper and a defended big blind, the chances of someone pairing the board is very small. Yes, an ace is possible, but to assume an ace is out there immediately is very timid thinking. A very large portion of the time, the ace is NOT out there. BB has the best chance of having me beat at the moment, if he made some loose blind defense with J5 or other junk like that. Limped pocket pairs are possible, but again it's too early to assume that, especially in such a small field.

All of this is to say that we're probably playing the high card game right now, and I'm probably in the lead. I think I have a decent chance of taking it down now, and a very good chance of taking it down on a turn with another bet. Does it happen once in every seven tries (14% of the time)? Maybe not, but given the chances of having the best hand, I don't always need them to fold this one. I would love to have J9s or Q8 peeling one off on the flop (Q8 of courses catches me on the turn, but that's how poker goes).

Fantam

06-13-2005, 02:35 PM

So what were your thoughts on the river?

Or are you waiting for more responses, before you reveal how you played and what your reasoning was?

xwillience

06-13-2005, 02:36 PM

on the flop you have virtually nothing i think check and fold if u get a free turn card lead out and they might fold. its just a nasty situation to be in and nothing can have much +ev

the only other thing i can think of is to try a semi-bluff check raise. check raise if he bets the flop and lead out on the turn and that might show enough strength to get him to fold? not sure tho

TheMainEvent

06-13-2005, 02:36 PM

Well I guess for the sake of discussion I'll go ahead and disagree with everyone. I just don't like raising from the blinds with hands that don't have any real showdown value UI. Furthermore, I don't like betting the turn or river either. If your PF raise and bet on an A-high flop didn't scare him, I don't think he's folding much on the turn and river either.

Aaron W.

06-13-2005, 02:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your bet is fine on the turn. You have folding equity, a gutshot and I think that you would have heard from an A on the flop. Maybe he's scared of his kicker, but your turn bet is fine.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say c/r the river. It might be a little too advanced for 1/2. If it is let me know.

edit- now that i think about it im not sure this line would be best. ill mull some more.

[/ QUOTE ]

The check-raise thought didn't occur to me at the time, but it certainly has some intrigue. There was a post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2605730&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1) in SS that advocates this play in a similar circumstance. I didn't intend to mimic that hand at all with this one. I don't know how the aggressiveness of those games (generically) compares to the 1/2 weak-tight Paradise games I find, but it's a good play against someone aggressive enough to bluff or value bet a pair, but is tight enough to not want to pay off a river check-raise with such a hand. It's certainly an option to consider (I hardly ever go for river check-raises).

imported_The Vibesman

06-13-2005, 02:39 PM

I must admit, I play these types of hands horribly.

With UTG+1 calling the whole way, there are a few possibilities as to what he had. Suited ace with a weak kicker (if he would limp in EP with that), low made pair and gutshot draw (again, if he would limp with low suited connectors) or a small pocket pair (seems the most likely limping hand in that position). The only thing you are beating at showdown is a completely busted str8 draw, I think, and I can't see many players limping early position with a two-gapper (of course, i do see that on micros a lot, but I am assuming people play a tiny bit tighter at 1/2 than at .50/1). So I can't see any way checking will win you the pot. There is a possibility that opponent has 6-7, and he will definitely fold that if you bet, but he also may very well fold some hands here that could beat you. There are 6 BBs in the pot, I think (at this point in the hand) it is worth throwing another bet at it in hopes of getting him to fold a better hand. I think it's the only chance to win. Checking could also cost you the pot, in the off chance that you check and he bets that busted gutshot 6-7 and you fold. I realize that it is unlikely that he has that, I am thinking small pair of some sort.

Long and short, I think the river bet is the only realistic chance to win. Pot's big enough for me to give it a shot, fold to a raise.

edit, after reading other responses: I had not addressed anything but the river, but I would fire at this flop after raising pre-flop, with only two limpers. Of course, I fire at a lot of flops after raising pre-flop, esp if it comes up w/ an ace, as anyone without one will almost immediately give credit to the pre-flop raiser for having one. I would also fire at the turn, as many will call the small flop bet on the draw but will fold the large turn bet. It is only after the turn call that I put opponent on a pair.
I hadn't really considered a check-raise; opponent may check thru w/ a small pair and have us beaten, opponent may call the checkraise due to the fact that the pot will now be about 10 bb's before rake and he has already invested one bet on the river. Plus we are risking 2 BB's at this point to win the 6 in the pot at start of river action, which seems to make it a worse investment. I'm interested in arguments to the contrary, however.

Aaron W.

06-13-2005, 02:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well I guess for the sake of discussion I'll go ahead and disagree with everyone. I just don't like raising from the blinds with hands that don't have any real showdown value UI. Furthermore, I don't like betting the turn or river either. If your PF raise and bet on an A-high flop didn't scare him, I don't think he's folding much on the turn and river either.

[/ QUOTE ]

With at most three players in the pot, how often do you expect to get to the showdown?

TheMainEvent

06-13-2005, 02:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With at most three players in the pot, how often do you expect to get to the showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]

More often than I'd like. And being out of position gives me less control over this.

Aaron W.

06-13-2005, 02:43 PM

In general, you should be willing to bet the flop against two or fewer opponents with a very wide range of hands. And this becomes more true if you raised preflop.

mmbt0ne

06-13-2005, 02:46 PM

<blockquote>En réponse à:<hr />
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say c/r the river. It might be a little too advanced for 1/2. If it is let me know.

[/ QUOTE ]

GoT wanna-be /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Villian seems a little loose, and a little aggressive. Hmmmm. This is a tough one.

Betting the river can't be right, because he's almost certainly not calling with any hand you beat, and he's not folding any hand you're behind after coming this far.

So, we check the river. I think he'll check behind a fair number of hands that beat us. Most notably small-mid pocket pairs. There were no draws on the flop except a super ghetto-fab gutshot straight draw, and if he has a 2 or a 4, he almost certainly has a pair of them unless he's a total donkey.

Check-calling is bad I think, because we will only beat a bluff, and I don't think villian is going to bluff this river very often. Sure, he may think he's bluffing, but those pair of 6s are probably good.

Check-raising brings a new little dynamic into it. When he's bluffing he will fold to the checkraise. However, there is no bluffing hand he can have that beats us, so it's really no advantage to us. Especially when you consider that he's going to call with hands that beat us. The question becomes, will he bet a small pair (either pockets, or 3s/5s) and then be willing to fold it to a check-raise. Honestly, I don't think most 1/2 villians are going to bet here often enough for the check-raise to be worthwhile, because I don't think many of them are capable of folding a better hand to it

Check-folding is the only option left. I think that's the best play.

DeathDonkey

06-13-2005, 03:02 PM

I totally agree with mmbt0ne. I would have played the other streets the same FWIW.

-DeathDonkey

Entity

06-13-2005, 03:07 PM

Hey homie,

I check and fold and move on to the next hand. My handrange on him is a little bit of a guesstimate but we've got 22 and 44 here, a weak pocket pair (that isn't usually folding), a weird hand like JT sometimes, and a weak Ace occasionally. I don't think there's enough of a reason to value-bluff the river here given that he doesn't seem particularly inclined to fold better hands and even though he's aggressive, there isn't a very wide range you're ahead of.

I like preflop, flop, and turn.

Shillx

06-13-2005, 03:14 PM

Check and fold. On a more interesting flop (like A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif) you could check and call the river. Hand looks good up to this point though.

Brad

Aaron W.

06-13-2005, 03:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With at most three players in the pot, how often do you expect to get to the showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]

More often than I'd like. And being out of position gives me less control over this.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not very helpful. You don't express how often you would like to get to the showdown, so you didn't even answer the question.

TheMainEvent

06-13-2005, 03:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That's not very helpful. You don't express how often you would like to get to the showdown, so you didn't even answer the question.

[/ QUOTE ]

My point was that having a hand with showdown value gives you more options on the river than just check-fold, which seems to be the consensus here.

Aaron W.

06-13-2005, 03:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That's not very helpful. You don't express how often you would like to get to the showdown, so you didn't even answer the question.

[/ QUOTE ]

My point was that having a hand with showdown value gives you more options on the river than just check-fold, which seems to be the consensus here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your reasoning for not raising preflop based on that single idea is very narrow-minded. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2615331&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

TheMainEvent

06-13-2005, 03:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your reasoning for not raising preflop based on that single idea is very narrow-minded.

[/ QUOTE ]

A better way to express my reason for not raising is that I don't like to build big pots out of position when I very likely do not have the best hand and I will very often be forced to conceed the hand without that much resistance from my opponent even if I am best.

Entity

06-13-2005, 04:27 PM

Aaron W.

06-13-2005, 04:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your reasoning for not raising preflop based on that single idea is very narrow-minded.

[/ QUOTE ]

A better way to express my reason for not raising is that I don't like to build big pots out of position when I very likely do not have the best hand and I will very often be forced to conceed the hand without that much resistance from my opponent even if I am best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, you're making a very weak point. "Big pot" in this case is 6 SB (when BB comes along, and only 5 SB if he folds), which is not very big (consider that only two more limpers makes this pot 5 SB if you complete your blind). Your claim that you "very likely do not have the best hand" is dubious (you're losing to A-high, a pocket pair, and KQ... and all you have at your very first action is a limper UTG+1). Your description of postflop play is vague and represents a fit-or-fold postflop mentality.

Aaron W.

06-13-2005, 05:34 PM

I check-folded, and villain flashed his cards before mucking (at Paradise, you have the option. I don't know if other sites do that).

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 4 folds, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

River: (6 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 has 4c 6c (one pair, aces).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins 7 BB. 

Did he outplay me? /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

Perhaps, but anyone who limps UTG+1 with that is okay by me. I had my money on him holding a weak ace, QJ, QT, or a medium pocket pair. And I lost.

SCfuji

06-13-2005, 05:44 PM

i knew it. i knew you should've check called. knew it all along.

[ QUOTE ]
Did he outplay me?

[/ QUOTE ]

he made a good bet and you made a good fold.

mmbt0ne

06-13-2005, 05:49 PM

At least you can bust out your river check-raise next time!!

shadow29

06-13-2005, 07:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
At least you can bust out your river check-raise next time!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew I was on to something!!!

TheMainEvent

06-13-2005, 07:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your description of postflop play is vague and represents a fit-or-fold postflop mentality.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I'm certainly not fessing up to this, but I would say the worse my position, the more my play is going to resemble "fit-or-fold". I assumed this was true for everyone.

Fantam

06-13-2005, 07:26 PM

Hey! How about all us guys who said bet/fold the river! LOL.

Anyway, I think your check/fold line was probably best.

But us Noobs might have won this pot. LOL. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Oh and the check-raise guy probably deserves some applause also. LOL. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Oh and before I forget. Please dont forget what Ed said. Dont fold in a big pot for just 1 more bet!

Apologies Aaron. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

TheWorstPlayer

06-13-2005, 07:42 PM

bet/fold strategy is dominated by c/c.

Fantam

06-13-2005, 07:48 PM

You are right!

As Ed said. Dont fold for 1 more bet! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

SCfuji

06-13-2005, 08:12 PM

this isnt a big pot.

dozer

06-13-2005, 08:16 PM

I am pretty sure Ed means decent hands in big pots that have a good chance of winning.

Not K HIGH!

Fantam

06-13-2005, 08:26 PM

Ok sorry, I was being a bit frivolous. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Its late and I need some sleep. zzzzzzzzzz /images/graemlins/cool.gif

imported_The Vibesman

06-13-2005, 11:15 PM

Many of my hands have gone like that tonight...

"anyone who limps UTG+1 with that is okay by me."

exactly. Play at my table, my friend.

I just didn't think anyone would limp a hand like that at that limit, but I've never played it. People do it on Empire (party) .5/1 all the time, which may be why I was saying bet/fold.

This thread is really interesting to me because it addresses something I have problems with: Leading out after a ragged flop unimproved with overcards when I put in a PF raise, and I get down to one opponent on the turn. I always want to fire, and don't know when to quit sometimes. Big leak. I was actually going to post a few hands on that, but empire crashed on me as I was trying to download the hands. I'm kind of new to this...

Anyways, thanks for posting this. These are the kinds of hands I need to work on, marginal situations come up so much more often than the clear cut ones. I still say, if you face the same situation on a Party skin at .5/1 and are absent reads, give them credit for nothing, try a bet/fold.

edit: heh, not to toot my own horn...but, from my original reply:
"Checking could also cost you the pot, in the off chance that you check and he bets that busted gutshot 6-7 and you fold."

I had the draw wrong, but the situation right...but even I thought that was an unlikely scenario...

Aaron W.

06-13-2005, 11:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyways, thanks for posting this. These are the kinds of hands I need to work on, marginal situations come up so much more often than the clear cut ones. I still say, if you face the same situation on a Party skin at .5/1 and are absent reads, give them credit for nothing, try a bet/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

A bet-fold and a check-fold run very close in value in these circumstances. With all sorts of variables floating around, it's consistently difficult to point to a specific play and say "this one is correct and this other one is wrong."

I considered betting the river because the ace paired and I thought I *might* get bluffed at, but didn't want to try to pick off a bluff wiht king high.

But when you consider the range of hands that would call a bet compared to the range of hands that will fold to a bet, I was figuring to get called far too often to make it into a good bet (there is nothing that will call that river bet that I can beat).

The river bluff on his part is actually not such a good bluff, because he would get called very often by a medium pocket pair or something like KQ. Most players will not check-fold the river after investing so many bets into the pot. The fact that the board paired the ace makes it even *MORE* likely he will get called by mediocre hand since players *LIKE* to call those river bets because they *HATE* to be bluffed out of a pot. In fact, I'm fairly certain he flashed the cards to show me up and demonstrate how good he is (makes me smile). This would be enough to tilt some players.

He took a wild stab and got lucky. I still favor check-folding in this situation. I would have bet a hand like 77 because I'm hoping he'll pay me off with a hand like J3s or 44.

Trix

06-13-2005, 11:37 PM

check and call if he is loose enough to call the turn with a gutshot and also loose enough to have one of the low ones. 2x, 4x, 76.

Else check and fold.

Aaron W.

06-14-2005, 12:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
check and call if he is loose enough to call the turn with a gutshot and also loose enough to have one of the low ones. 2x, 4x, 76.

Else check and fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the check-call just knowing that he is loose enough call with such crap hands. I need to know he's aggressive enough to bluff those hands.

Trix

06-14-2005, 02:25 AM

people often bluff when you show weakness and they have no showdown value at all.

Aaron W.

06-14-2005, 03:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
people often bluff when you show weakness and they have no showdown value at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I'll buy that. But am I really getting 7:1 that he has such a crap hand? Here's a pretty decent list of calling down hands for a loose player willing to call with 2x, 4x, and 76.

Pocket pairs: 22, 44, 66-99 = 36 ways
Weak queens: KQ, QJ-Q8 = 42 ways
Weak aces: AJ-A6, A4, A2 = 51 ways
Weak connectors: 65, 75 = 24 ways
Other weak pair hands: K5, K3 = 24 ways

That makes a total of 177 hands. So for this to be a good call, I need to have more than 25 reasonable hands of the type 2x, 4x, or 76:

76 = 16 ways
K2, K4 = 18 ways

Hmmmmm.... it looks like you win. This analysis is going to mess with me for a while.