Mathematical Hand Analysis (Final table stop and go)

[A_PLUS]

This is a hand I posted last night, that I decided to take a closer look at. The EV model is from www.pokersoft.co.uk (http://www.pokersoft.co.uk) UB 40+4$, 6 players payouts ranging from 450$-2K. Chips counts are as follows

Hero(SB): 37,320
UG: 44890
UG+1:62460
MP:49050
Button: 48080
BB: 29700

Blinds are 1K/2K, with 200 ante.

Obviously, my preflop call is debatable, so I will ignore that decision:

Folded to Button, who bets 8,200 (bet the pot button on UB)
I call from the SB, with 6s7s.

Flop (19,600) 7c 8d Ks.

I decide to open push, for my last 28920.

What are the results of this play

He folds, and I bring my chips to 48,520
He calls and I win, bringing my chips to 77,440
He calls and I lose, winning 450$

So running these scenarios through the model mentioned above.

I fold (28,920TCs) = 810$
He folds (48,520TCs) = 978$
He calls, I win (77,440TCs) = 1188$
He calls, I lose (0) = 450$

What range of hand will he call with? Do to the fact that this is the 2nd time that I have done this to a raise made by him from the Blinds, I would guess.

AA-77, AKs-AJs, A8s-A7s, KQs-K9s, AKo-AJo, A8o-A7o, KQo-K9o

Giving me just over 35% equity in the pot.

So, my EV = % of time caleld x [.35(1188) + .65(450)] + (1-% called)* 978

If this EV is > 810 (EV of check-folding), then a push is +EV.

***This assumes a 0 probability that the hand will be checked down, or I will see a free turn card that will cause me to call. So, EV will really need to be greater than 810 to be +EV in reality.

So what hands would he raise with, and how many are now calls?

If I assume a raising range of AX+, KT+, QJs, AA-22, he will be folding apx 40% of his hands (correctly so).

So my EV would be 816$, which is greater than 810. Add in the fact that he may have been on a stone bluff, and that he may in fact fold hands that I am behind, I think the play is very borderline. If I hadnt pulled the same move 2 orbits prior, I would be more likely to think this move is definitely profitable.

any thoughts?

[Roman]

I would add 9Ts to the mix.
Personally I think you played that hand poorly and should not have put in your stack with that hand. I know it is easy to get excited when u have 7 high in a raised pot with shallow stacks, but try to contain yourself, especially at a final table.

[11t]

Question: We're you planning to stop and go the entire time or when you saw the flop?

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
I would add 9Ts to the mix.
I know it is easy to get excited when u have 7 high in a raised pot with shallow stacks, but try to contain yourself, especially at a final table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good one. I dont disagree that i played the hand poorly. I think the push was marginal at best, and the call preflop was pretty bad as well.

[A_PLUS]

Preflop I was going to push any flop that hit me, and did not contain an Ace, or any OE straight draw or flush draw.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop I was going to push any flop that hit me, and did not contain an Ace, or any OE straight draw or flush draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

Then this is not what we usually call a "stop and go". Although the defintnion doesn't matter, only the logic behind your move, and one of the problems I see with the logic, IMO, is that you say you'll push any flop that "hits" you, and then push with 3rd pair no draw (another problem is making this PF call and then check-folding so much post).

So, In what sense did this flop hit you? In other words: Why the EV of pushing here with this 3rd pair is *essentially* higher than the EV of pushing with 32o or J4s? (of course you have more outs with your actual hand if he calls you with the possible calling-range you put him on, but is this enough? i.e, enough for being the reason for pushing this?) An interesting and a relevant calculation will be comparing doing this with your actual hand to doing this with a hand that hit nothing.

[CardSharpCook]

the difference is that the 40% of the time that he calls you (specifically the 40% of the time that he is winning) You'll still win 20% of the time. So you win 60% of the time with 32o and 68% of the time with 67s.

I think A+ wants his justification to come from overcalls with AJ, unimproved. Dude, if you want AJ in this pot, CHECK!!!! You've already determined that you will die with this hand, so die well, damn it.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
the difference is that the 40% of the time that he calls you (specifically the 40% of the time that he is winning) You'll still win 20% of the time. So you win 60% of the time with 32o and 68% of the time with 67s.

I think A+ wants his justification to come from overcalls with AJ, unimproved. Dude, if you want AJ in this pot, CHECK!!!! You've already determined that you will die with this hand, so die well, damn it.

[/ QUOTE ]

No the push is better.

Your oponent may fold a better hand of any 'made' hand less than a pair of kings. He might fold 2nd pair, or a better pair of 7's. Heck he might even fold JJ or QQ!

Look at what it costs him to call. if button calls and loses, he's going to be down to 10K in chips and crippled.

So many many opponents will fold all hands but top pair or better hands, which makes the push much better.

If you check and let your opponent to bet at the pot, there is essentially no chance you're going to get him to fold to a reraise.

So increase your chances of winning the pot with the push!!!

-Scott

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
the difference is that the 40% of the time that he calls you (specifically the 40% of the time that he is winning) You'll still win 20% of the time. So you win 60% of the time with 32o and 68% of the time with 67s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against parts of his calling range you are significantly less than 20%, and the few hands that you are ahead of still have some good 6 outs. Anyway, this wasn't my point at all. My point is, that even according to your numbers above, it doesn't make much sense to check-fold 32o and push 67s, since clearly big part of the EV here is the FE you have, which is not different whether you have 67s or 32o.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
I think A+ wants his justification to come from overcalls with AJ, unimproved. Dude, if you want AJ in this pot, CHECK!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks CSC, I am freely admit that I played this hand poorly. I think the biggest part of my mistake was my preflop game plan. I think after I made that -EV decision, I am not sure that the flop push was horrible.


Please dont confuse my analysis of this hand to some sort of round about way of trying to justtify my play. I've just been on a math kick lately, and am trying to work my way through different scenarios. I think I butchered this hand, regardless of what my gorilla math comes up with, but I do end up learning a lot when I realy break down a play like this.

That being said. Ignoring my preflop play, do you agree with my analysis (method, hand ranges, etc?) This is really more for future scenarios, not the result of this hand.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
My point is, that even according to your numbers above, it doesn't make much sense to check-fold 32o and push 67s, since clearly big part of the EV here is the FE you have, which is not different whether you have 67s or 32o.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, this is where the hand fell apart for me. i should have been pushing any flop if I decided to call-push this hand. I mentioned 2-3 scenarios where I would push, they do not happen often enough to make this profitable.

[11t]

I think this is a read dependent decision. If the button was aggressive and raising from the button often with a wide array of hands I don't think it is too bad.

My one problem with this move is that it seems you are way over betting the pot, I think it would be a more convincing bluff if you bet out 1/2 to 2/3rds of the pot. Of course you will probably be pot stuck (with like 3/5ths of your stack in the pot after that bet).

Versus a TAG I think its a pretty decent move but I still wait for a better spot since you have like 18xBB.