how about this bet?

[Indiana]

i made a funny bet on sportsbook.com today. I picked 35 big names to win the WSOP at over 400:1 each (some as high as 2500:1). I invested $2 on each bet...Thus, if any big name wins, I am prolly gonna get over 1K...

stupid betting?
Indiana

[tech]

Just curious ... why bet on the big names? Is it because that was all they offered? If I was going to make a bet like this, I would bet on relative unknowns because you are sure to get much better odds.

[Indiana]

sportsbook.com doesn't have bets for unknown players...If so then I would certaintly bet on myself...they don't know me well so they would have to lay me 6-7K:1 at least and i would for sure bet on that. I feel comfortable that my shot is as good as any and plan to at least make the $$.

Indiana

[llabb]

Sorry Indy, but those are -EV bets. See the WSOP Odds Thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2575691&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=31&fpart=1) for more details.

That said, it sure is one heck of a fun bet, though. So assuming that $70 is just fun money for you, you have plenty of players to go sweat if you're there. And if one of them manages to make the final table, you can go cheer your heart out.

If you really want to bet on yourself, you can e-mail Intertops. On their Bet on Poker page, they say they will give odds for others on request, and I think people have done this in the past. They started a Party skin a while back, and are getting more into the Poker thing, I think. The sportsbook side gave odds on players to bet on themselves for their own poker tournament, and it was funny seeing people give themselves dumb nicknames.

See if anyone knows if another sportsbook will do that, though, because Intertops odds for longshot plays are atrocious. The highest odds they posted for a noname to win the WSOP is 500:1, and to make the final table 150:1. Those odds are insanely grotesque, enormously -EV there. You could e-mail them and get a laugh, when they probably put you around 800:1.

[Indiana]

oh fo sho i know its -EV...But how negative? I dont think its that bad and like you said, its mostly for the fun of it. If I get knocked out for example, I still have something to root for via my bets. And if nothing happens, well it aint but $70.

Indiana

[llabb]

Since it's sheerly fun money that you're just using for entertainment, I wouldn't even worry about how -EV it is. In fact, I may do something similar as you did, but to make the final table instead, since that has a 9x better chance of happening. If I do it, I'll know that my odds are outrageously -EV, but boy oh boy will it be fun!

In the NBA threads, I'm making what I think are solid plays for my normal-sized bets, but I'm entertaining myself by taking a ton of tiny bets. They're all break-even to slightly +EV plays imo, but man am I having a blast watching the games, doing this.

Anyway, if you do want to know how -EV it is, I'd say the avg odds you should be getting, even for top pros is around 2600:1. Lederer and some other pros have given quotes somewhere, where they think that top pro's EV for entering the WSOP ME is about 5-6x the average player. That's because with all the dead money, they have a shot at a decent return, if they can just get into the money by a little ways. But they think that it'll be extremely difficult for a pro to actually win, due to the huge field size, and once you get down to the top couple hundred players left, most of the dead money is gone. Pros and solid amateurs, so even for a top pro, the EV to win is maybe 2-3 times average at most.

Thus, I take 6600/2.5 and get about 2600:1 as the right odds for a pro. You can calculate how -EV any bet is depending on how much worse your line is. Your average line is probably about 3-5x worse than those odds, is my guess. If I do the final table one, it'll probably be 5-6x worse than breakeven EV, but I gotta have something to root for!

[Indiana]

Exactly, this is just a fun bet. Thanks for the reply. It is gonna be fun to have money on the winner of the event, but as you know skill gets you close or in the money but it takes great luck to get REALLY deep...I'm just gonna take this as a learning experience and know that if I get knocked out, any pro winning it could make me a few K...

Indiana