Matt R.
06-13-2005, 02:15 AM
I wanted to take a stab at this because I feel like I understand what Gigabet was getting at in his post, and I wanted to re-word and summarize it to see if others agree.
Basically, his point is that the EV of a decision as it applies to *future* hands is dependent upon the stack sizes of everyone at the table and stack depth relative to the blinds. If you can accurately estimate the future EV of a given hand, sometimes you can make slightly -chip EV plays and what would be calculated as -$EV plays in ICM calculations and still make them profitable. How can you estimate the future EV of a hand? Due to the minimum bet or raise getting larger as blind size increases, stack sizes can be thought of as multiples (or fractions) of a given meaningful "block" of chips. Anything smaller than this block is virtually meaningless to your long term $EV for the tournament, so you can use these extra chips (more than the 'block' size) to play very loosely with yet also threaten other people's entire stacks in the right situations. It follows that if you face a decision for a given amount of chips (should you call or make a bet/raise), you should not only think of the chips currently in the pot versus the pot odds you are getting. You should also consider the future power those chips in the pot will give you should you win, versus the amount of power you stand to lose should you lose the hand. This is dependent on how large those "block" sizes are relative to your stack size and the sizes of your opponents' stacks.
I think a hand that curtains recently posted illustrates this idea:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2619550&page=2&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1
To use this hand as an example, first we need to look at the blinds -- 200/400. What is the smallest amount of chips you can have at this blind level and still be able to put pressure on other stacks (i.e., have some fold equity)? I would say that it is approximately 1400 chips in this case. If you have a stack of 1400, and raise all-in, you are laying the big blind precisely 2:1 on his call (typically anything less than this and most people believe BB should call with any two). So let's start our block size out at 1400. However, looking at everyone else's stack size, you see that no one has anything significanly above 1400 chips. Therefore, you can probably still put pressure on others and threaten their entire stack with less than 1400 chips. So you can probably lower the "block" size a bit. Since the blinds are so high, you probably can't really say 800 chips would be threatening to another player's stack (since 600 would already be in the pot for the blinds -- even though 800 is a big part of his stack, he'd often be correct to play with any decent cards since the pot's so large). I think a good estimate for a single "block" would be about 1200-1400 chips and certainly no less than 1000. 1200 chips is 3x the current big blind size and it is definitely enough to threaten everyone's tournament life except for acesneverlos.
So how does this affect curtains decision? He (hopefully) correctly read the BB in that he was tight enough to fold anything but the most premium hands. There is about t1350 in the pot after the all-in from the short stack. 1350 is around one "block" size. This signifies a significant chunk of chips -- enough to put pressure on most of the players at the table to bust out. If curtains wins this amount, he has these chips to "play around with". He can loosely raise and call with them, satisfied in knowing that he can knock someone out of the tournament with little risk to his own tournament life. If he loses, he is still in contention and is not crippled yet. So, as Gigabet put it, if he wins these chips, it is almost as if he has doubled up. However, if he LOSES this pot with his all-in re-raise from the SB, what are the results? He's putting in an extra 550 chips beyond what he has to after posting the SB. How valuable are these chips? Not very, given Curtains stack size. t550 is slightly larger than one big blind. Also, it is barely 1/3 the size of the "block" of chips that I defined earlier. An extra 550 chips isn't going to put much pressure on anyone without being just as threatening to curtains' stack. In short, those extra 550 chips aren't very important. Therefore, even if the EV of this particular hand may be negative, the future EV may very well be positive if curtains is good at using a big stack.
This is how I interpreted Gigabet's idea, and I hope it is relatively accurate.
PS -- I'm still not sure about the Q3 offsuit play /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.
Basically, his point is that the EV of a decision as it applies to *future* hands is dependent upon the stack sizes of everyone at the table and stack depth relative to the blinds. If you can accurately estimate the future EV of a given hand, sometimes you can make slightly -chip EV plays and what would be calculated as -$EV plays in ICM calculations and still make them profitable. How can you estimate the future EV of a hand? Due to the minimum bet or raise getting larger as blind size increases, stack sizes can be thought of as multiples (or fractions) of a given meaningful "block" of chips. Anything smaller than this block is virtually meaningless to your long term $EV for the tournament, so you can use these extra chips (more than the 'block' size) to play very loosely with yet also threaten other people's entire stacks in the right situations. It follows that if you face a decision for a given amount of chips (should you call or make a bet/raise), you should not only think of the chips currently in the pot versus the pot odds you are getting. You should also consider the future power those chips in the pot will give you should you win, versus the amount of power you stand to lose should you lose the hand. This is dependent on how large those "block" sizes are relative to your stack size and the sizes of your opponents' stacks.
I think a hand that curtains recently posted illustrates this idea:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2619550&page=2&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1
To use this hand as an example, first we need to look at the blinds -- 200/400. What is the smallest amount of chips you can have at this blind level and still be able to put pressure on other stacks (i.e., have some fold equity)? I would say that it is approximately 1400 chips in this case. If you have a stack of 1400, and raise all-in, you are laying the big blind precisely 2:1 on his call (typically anything less than this and most people believe BB should call with any two). So let's start our block size out at 1400. However, looking at everyone else's stack size, you see that no one has anything significanly above 1400 chips. Therefore, you can probably still put pressure on others and threaten their entire stack with less than 1400 chips. So you can probably lower the "block" size a bit. Since the blinds are so high, you probably can't really say 800 chips would be threatening to another player's stack (since 600 would already be in the pot for the blinds -- even though 800 is a big part of his stack, he'd often be correct to play with any decent cards since the pot's so large). I think a good estimate for a single "block" would be about 1200-1400 chips and certainly no less than 1000. 1200 chips is 3x the current big blind size and it is definitely enough to threaten everyone's tournament life except for acesneverlos.
So how does this affect curtains decision? He (hopefully) correctly read the BB in that he was tight enough to fold anything but the most premium hands. There is about t1350 in the pot after the all-in from the short stack. 1350 is around one "block" size. This signifies a significant chunk of chips -- enough to put pressure on most of the players at the table to bust out. If curtains wins this amount, he has these chips to "play around with". He can loosely raise and call with them, satisfied in knowing that he can knock someone out of the tournament with little risk to his own tournament life. If he loses, he is still in contention and is not crippled yet. So, as Gigabet put it, if he wins these chips, it is almost as if he has doubled up. However, if he LOSES this pot with his all-in re-raise from the SB, what are the results? He's putting in an extra 550 chips beyond what he has to after posting the SB. How valuable are these chips? Not very, given Curtains stack size. t550 is slightly larger than one big blind. Also, it is barely 1/3 the size of the "block" of chips that I defined earlier. An extra 550 chips isn't going to put much pressure on anyone without being just as threatening to curtains' stack. In short, those extra 550 chips aren't very important. Therefore, even if the EV of this particular hand may be negative, the future EV may very well be positive if curtains is good at using a big stack.
This is how I interpreted Gigabet's idea, and I hope it is relatively accurate.
PS -- I'm still not sure about the Q3 offsuit play /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.