99 H/U on 3 flush board

[locutus2002]

Bugsy $10 + $1 1st pays $240, 2nd pays $160.

Stacks have been going back and forth for 15 minutes. Villain is playing considerably tighter than hero. Hero has been raising on the button with everything but the worst holding.

The hand that stands out in my mind is one where I raised it up on the button with 46o, and villain called with AJs, the flop came Axx I bet, he called. He checked the turn, I checked behind, and he checked the river again (I checked behind).

Blind (4000/8000/1000)

Hero Button (T250,000) 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
BB (T400,000)

Hero raises to T35,000, villain reraises to T75,000, hero calls.

Flop: (~T165,000) 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

villain checks, hero??


I had my finger on the all-in button, and misplayed it, but after thinking about it I'm wondering if I can check and fold this.

Roughly, I think 1/2 the time he has a better heart, and 1/2 the time he has a better pair.
range for villain:
AK-AQ
AA-88

[locutus2002]

bump

[CardSharpCook]

This is interesting... if he has a heart he is winning (8 flush outs, 5 overcard outs) If he doesn't, he has 4 outs (non-heart pair cards). I'm ok with seeing the next card.... You are not folding this hand, so we'll assume that only four cards can hurt you. If you check behind, he may well bet the turn, which we want him to do if he still hasn't one of the 4 cards that help him.

That's the way I see it. You're afraid of 4 cards or it is a coin flip (or you're already screwed). See another card, see if he does something stupid. If he doesn't push the turn as he will be getting slightly bad odds to call with say A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

CSC