2/5 NL - Disappointed that I couldn't fold this set

[dtbog]

I read a lot posts with tough situations, and a lot of times the advice that others and I give advocate making very tough folds. This is obviously an essential part of big-bet poker -- knowing when your hand is beat and avoiding paying off your opponents when they make their hands and you make a second-best hand.

This is a hand that you should be able to fold. It's one thing to tell someone else to fold it -- which I would probably do in a hand post -- but just drop the cards in the muck and move on. You'll be a better player for it.

2/5 NL at Turning Stone, $300 max.

Villain is a close friend and a solid player. We've played many, many hands together -- he knows what he's doing and he's definitely not overplaying AA/KK/AJ/KJ/QQ here.

Villain ($400) makes it $15 UTG, and Hero ($850) calls with the 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Three more calls.

Flop ($75): 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif. (gin?)

Villain checks, and I lead out for $35. Folds around to villain, who makes it $70.

I think the best way to disguise a set against this opponent is to make it $100 more. I'm hoping that he'll push with AA or KK, if he has it -- hopefully putting me on a hand like TPTK with a backdoor flush draw. Whether or not that's the best decision....

Hero makes it $100 more. Villain calls.

Uh oh.

Turn ($415ish): Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Villain leads for $100.

Hero thinks for about five minutes, putting Villain squarely on JJ or a very elaborate bluff. (Note that at this point, even him holding QQ is no good, because QQ just hit a set as well). At this point the table is getting pretty annoyed, but I don't really care. The dealer finishes his down and the new dealer is waiting behind him, when the 2 seat calls clock. 60 seconds.

*think* *think* *think*

*sigh* Hero pushes Villain in for $180 more. Villain snap-calls. River isn't a 3 and Hero starts to muck before he sees Villain's cards. Of course he had J /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif.

Don't let this happen to you.

-dB

[xorbie]

Of all the leaks you might have, this is not one to lose too much sleep over.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
Of all the leaks you might have, this is not one to lose too much sleep over.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes -- sure, if I never fold another set on a drawless board, I'm not going to suddenly become a losing player -- but it's certainly something to think about.

This isn't just about sets, though -- it's about a general class of hands that are hard to fold, even when you know you're probably beat.

For some players, those hands are TPTK-type hands. Some players can't get away from TPTK, no matter how well their opponent alerts them to the fact that they have a set.

For some, it's two pair -- some will go to the felt with QJ against strong aggression on a board of AQJ.

For some players, it's holding the jack of spades on a 4-spade board.

The point is that the strength of your hand doesn't matter -- what matters is whether or not you can beat your opponent. If you put your opponent on JJ on a board of QJ63r, in my spot you should fold everything except QQ.

It's about knowing when you're beat, not about folding sets.

-dB

[swolfe]

i know EXACTLY how you feel: linky (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=2594638&page=1&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

[xorbie]

I understand where you're coming from, but you are still wrong here. TPTK against opposition is fairly common. Set over set is not.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand where you're coming from, but you are still wrong here.

[/ QUOTE ]

No I'm not. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Are you arguing that I made the right call here?

I knew my opponent had JJJ and I pushed. That's bad poker. I don't care how strong my hand was.

What if the board were all hearts, and you couldn't get away from your set? Sure, it's more common, but it's still bad.

I'm arguing that you should fold if you know you're beat. That's not wrong. I don't care about how strong your hand is -- if you're simply calling on hand strength alone, your hand has two classes of strength: stronger than your opponent's hand, or weaker than your opponent's hand. I don't care if it's a set, a flush, an overpair.... you get the idea.

-dB

[swolfe]

yeah, there's a mathematical side to it (set over set is rare), but poker is really about figuring out if you can beat your opponent. that means making calls with A high with the right read, or folding quads. that part, the intuitive part, is one of the most difficult things to deal with, especially when it's in conflict with the mathematical part (i know i'm beat with 4 to a straight-flush on the baord, but i have quads!).

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
he's definitely not overplaying AA/KK/AJ/KJ/QQ here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold preflop. Unless, of course, you intend to bluff at a fair number of boards that don't hit you. Where do you think your profit is coming from on this hand?

[jonnyUCB]

Seems like an odd way to play an overpair. Also, 3-betting the turn will fold most hands you beat, if your friend is as good as you say he is. Just call and hope for the best.

[ryanghall]

I can't agree with this advice, Soah.

Folding 33 to a 3x BB raise when you have position on the raiser (and it's seemingly a passive table) just doesn't seem right.

Even if the raiser is a good player, you have a chance to break someone else with a good hand if there are callers behind you. It's certainly got to be profitable, in my opinion.

Ryan

[DoomSlice]

Trust your reads, that's why you have them.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I understand where you're coming from, but you are still wrong here.

[/ QUOTE ]

No I'm not. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Are you arguing that I made the right call here?

I knew my opponent had JJJ and I pushed. That's bad poker. I don't care how strong my hand was.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, I see what you're saying. If he had flipped over his JJ and you called, that would be bad. Given a really strong read, this is fairly bad. Again, not terrible and not much to lose sleep over.

[Los Feliz Slim]

[ QUOTE ]
I knew my opponent had JJJ and I pushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

This happened to me today and I've been going through the same mental anguish for three hours. Misery loves company.

I had an interesting but completely meaningless thought that I thought I would waste your time with. After this happened to me, today, I also said "What a stupid play, I KNEW he had top set and I still put all my money in." Of course, I didn't KNOW it, and neither did you. I honestly believe that after something like this happens you convince yourself you KNEW it beforehand - maybe to punish yourself, maybe to salvage some pride somewhere. It's like eyewitness testimony not really being that reliable, and something like deja vu. Your mind plays tricks on you sometimes.

End of day, I'll make more money pushing my sets than I will save laying them down.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. Unless, of course, you intend to bluff at a fair number of boards that don't hit you. Where do you think your profit is coming from on this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I see your point, but I disagree for a few reasons:

1) If he had AA and he did get away from it, I still make enough in this instance to make the preflop call justified, odds-wise.

2) Hands have been getting multi-way at this table, and I know I can count on a few people calling behind me. No one says that the only outcome here is a heads-up pot with this player.

3) My comments about my opponent apply to this drawless board. I'm not saying that he'll never make a semi-bluff or overplay AA, I'm saying that if he holds AA and his opponent is showing considerable aggression on a board of 36Jr, he'll understand what's going on.

-dB

[soah]

I assumed you were playing this hand with the intention of making money against the preflop raiser. If the other players were bad enough to not realize that their top pair is beaten in two places, then you should of course go ahead and take a flop and try to take one of their stacks.