TT's hand of the day - a controversial one [Archive]

Luv2DriveTT

06-12-2005, 02:18 PM

I'm following Jason T's lead, I will post a minimum of one hand each day I play online. I will try to focus mostly on steal attempts for now since this is an area I am working on to make stronger.

I particularly find the flop interesting, others will find the turn. UTG is hyper-aggressive pre-flop, plays too many hands, and raises 1/3 of them. Post flop he is known to wear blinders. Discuss.

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG raises, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, MP2 folds, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 7 BB

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

belloc

06-12-2005, 02:26 PM

Good flop bet, confident that UTG will raise to face the field with two cold. Lucky that UTG folded to the pair on the turn. But if you really had a 6 in the hole (which I guess you're representing here), wouldn't you have checkraised? What do you think he thinks you have?

What do you do if UTG comes back at you again on the turn?

SippinSoma

06-12-2005, 02:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But if you really had a 6 in the hole (which I guess you're representing here), wouldn't you have checkraised? What do you think he thinks you have?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is denying UTG a free card. This is the play of a weak made hand. I like this semibluff a lot.

[ QUOTE ]
What do you do if UTG comes back at you again on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Promptly fold to the "I have a monster" line (flop smooth call, turn raise).

krishanleong

06-12-2005, 02:38 PM

Flop bet blows. The only thing it does is cut down on your implied odds if you hit your straight + it gives you a minute chance of a great bluff card coming. Your pair outs don't need cleaning up. Just check-call the flop.

Krishan

Catt

06-12-2005, 02:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I particularly find the flop interesting, others will find the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm. Responding on just a few minutes worth of thought (plus the time it takes me to draft this) -- I hope, after many replies, you'll jump in and explain your thinking on the flop.

My quickie response is: the flop play seems like a high-risk / high reward play, and one I would be more likely to make with good reads on the pre-flop CCers. I see a lot of CCing with pairs up to 99 or TT (in addition to paint and suited connectors). It's almost impossible for this flop to have hit over-aggro UTG, and especially if the CCers are weak-tighties, I can see leading in an attempt to blow away the field to then try and take it down againt UTG. If CCers are decent (or solid but a little passive pre-flop), this gets a bit dicier. If we insted check-call the flop, we are comfortably seeing the turn with our gutshot (assuming no read) -- problem with this is that we're almost certainly not continuing past the turn without hitting, and we're playing against someone whose play and judgment we don not respect.

I think leading the turn here would be interesting whether we C/C or lead the flop. Playing out of the BB it is entirely reasonable to believe that we might have a 6 (or a 5) and I'm trying to figure out how different our fold-equity is when we C/C the flop instead of leading. Probably pretty significant -- but if he's holding overs it's a tough call for him regardless of our flop play. Nice how the flop lead / raise call gives us just about the odds we need to call a turn raise if Villain doesn't go away -- would be tougher without a flop lead.

Interesting hand. I'm going to think about it some more.

colgin

06-12-2005, 02:52 PM

TT,

I hate this flop bet. You have like zero chance of picking up this pot with a semi-bluff here an I think you know that. I assume you expect villain to raise and clear out the field. But how does this help you? It's not like you have a fragile top pair against possible overcards in which case getting ehads up might materially improve your winning chances. Here, if you hit your gutshot you want peple in (except for flush draws which won't fold anyway). As for buying outs in case you hitone ofyour cards on the turn the parlay is too remote, i.e., you hit one of your cards on the turn for a pair, you are ahead of villain who has pvercards, and your flop raise knocks out players who would have re-drawn out on you at the river had they stayed (note that any overpair, if one is out, is not folding for two SBs here). This is not worth paying two bets to see the turn here.

Since you got it headsup, the turn card is a great one to semi-bluff at here. Vilain has to worry that he is drawing dead. Still, if he is the type that you would expect to call down no mater what (you said he had "blinders on" and I am not sure exactly waht you meant) then this play does not work.

Also:

[ QUOTE ]
I will post a minimum of one hand each day I play online

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome that youwill post here regularly. However, perhaps we should all limit ourselves to a maximum of one hand posting per day to reduce the clutter.

All the best.

Colgin

colgin

06-12-2005, 02:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Good flop bet, confident that UTG will raise to face the field with two cold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think that would be a good thing?

Catt

06-12-2005, 03:02 PM

I understand why people are hating the flop bet. But consider something that no one has mentioned -- I'm not sure what to refer to it as except perhaps "bluffing outs." Hero is BB; he leads into aggro UTG pre-flop raiser; UTG obligingly raises; reads on our pre-flop CCers are important to this play, I think, because if they'll lay down pretty easily on the flop (holding overs, high connectors, etc.) then this play becomes more interesting. By betting the flop, there are like 9 turn cards that are good for us (board pairing) plus any 7 which allows us to lead or more likely C/R depending on how UTG plays post-flop. Betting out of the BB and the leading the turn when the board pairs looks an awful lot like we turned trips if a 5, 6, or 2 falls and really applies a lot of pressure to UTG. I am really sympathetic to the "flop bet sucks" analysis, and this hand played this way has a decent chance of being a very expensive play, especially when UTG calls us on the turn. But I am not convinced that we can just dismiss the flop play here as not good.

Edit: Could add four 4s turning to our "bluffing outs" here.

colgin

06-12-2005, 03:09 PM

Yeah, but on a cordinated board like this TT may not even get it heads up, in which case some of his bluffing outs may be real outs for one of his opponents. This is an expensive play to make IMO. Too many things have to go right for TT for this to be correct.

Luv2DriveTT

06-12-2005, 03:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Good flop bet, confident that UTG will raise to face the field with two cold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think that would be a good thing?

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be a VERY good thing. I want to get this hand heads up.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

Luv2DriveTT

06-12-2005, 03:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, but on a cordinated board like this TT may not even get it heads up, in which case some of his bluffing outs may be real outs for one of his opponents. This is an expensive play to make IMO. Too many things have to go right for TT for this to be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. If the hand gets heads up, there are too few things that can go wrong.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

PS: I used this play on you once in a live game and took down the pot there as well. I never discussed it back then, so its fantastic that you are in this discussion now.

Catt

06-12-2005, 03:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, but on a cordinated board like this TT may not even get it heads up, in which case some of his bluffing outs may be real outs for one of his opponents. This is an expensive play to make IMO. Too many things have to go right for TT for this to be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

This play is much easier if the flop is rainbow. But the flush draw is the only coordination I think we need to be too worried about. Yes, there are potentially Ax hands out there that would continue, but there's also a very good chance that they fold their guts facing two cold on the flop. We may be up against a mid PP, too - which is why I think a good read on the CCer's play (what do they CC with? how do they play post-flop?) is important.

belloc

06-12-2005, 03:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Good flop bet, confident that UTG will raise to face the field with two cold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think that would be a good thing?

[/ QUOTE ]

I certainly see the argument for a check/call here, keeping customers for your gutshot, but I think that if the circumstances are right for stealing a decent pot, and you have the correct degree of confidence that you can do it, you have to do it. Especially if this villain has a tendency to fold overcards to turn aggression.

Here's my defense of TT's line: I might play it this way because the pot is big enough to try to win now, and because this board is ripe for stealing from a hand like AK-AT, KQ/KJ. If you can eliminate all opponents but the PFR, and scare him a bit by betting into him on this flop, you might get him to fold on a turn blank or scarecard.

Of course all of this depends on your read of his play in general, and of his hole cards in this hand, and on the texture of this board. If you think there's a decent chance this guy will just call you down, there's no way this can be correct. And I don't think I'd do it with a broadway card on board, either.

My first thought here was to take your line, and maybe I was influenced by the fact that the post included villain's turn fold, but I think an argument can be made for TT's line here.

Luv2DriveTT

06-12-2005, 06:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Good flop bet, confident that UTG will raise to face the field with two cold. Lucky that UTG folded to the pair on the turn. But if you really had a 6 in the hole (which I guess you're representing here), wouldn't you have check-raised? What do you think he thinks you have?

[/ QUOTE ]

For all I know the villain thinks I have any two cards. He might know I don't have the 6, but its obvious as I expected he didn't have a hand strong enough to continue.

1) I bet the flop because I know the villain will raise 70% of the time regardless of the two cards he holds. This allows me to make the hand heads up, so I can decide how to proceed on the turn. The other possibility was to check-call the flop, but I would then only have the four "legitimate" outs.

2) Because the board is full of under cards a flop bet/call represents the fact that I paired. In addition to my 4 legitimate gust shot outs, I also now have 9 "illegitimate outs" that I am representing if the board pairs.

3) There is a nice overlay assuming the villain folds at least 50% of the time if the turn card pairs and I bet out, in addition to the times when I make my gut shot draw and can extract further bets from him.

I hope this helps the naysayers understand the hand a bit better.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

colgin

06-13-2005, 05:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Because the board is full of under cards a flop bet/call represents the fact that I paired. In addition to my 4 legitimate gust shot outs, I also now have 9 "illegitimate outs" that I am representing if the board pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT, maybe I misread your initial post but there was nothing in your description of villain that makes me think he is going to be doing the type of thinking you want him to do here to make your rationale work. Maybe your game was of a very different type than I assumed but I don't see it being otherwise from your inital post.

Moreover, even if villain is thinking along these lines, surely 9 bluff outs is too many. The top card pairing is great for you and I agree with your turn bet. But that was the best card, other than your straight outs, that you could have hoped for. Why would villain be worried if the middle or bottom card had paired. Should he really think that you had bet the flop with middle or bottom pair. If I were in villain's position I would not discount the cleanness of any of my overcard outs in deciding whether or not to continue based on the middle or bottom card pairing.

sebastian_d

06-13-2005, 06:16 PM

I like this, but have three questions:

1) What stakes?
2) How many hands have you played with the villain? (ie: What is his perception of you?)
3) What's your plan UI if he smooth-calls the turn?

One thing that makes me like this line is that if he calls the turn, and you either bet the river and he calls, or you check the river, and he checks behind, you get "busted". That's great for your metagame. Now maybe there's no metagame at 2/4, but I have seen it in 3/6 (or maybe my table selection isn't discriminate enough). But either way, I like the play. I think it's +EV or close, and potentially +action later which is +EV if you recognize it and abandon stealing. My 2c.

Luv2DriveTT

06-13-2005, 06:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
surely 9 bluff outs is too many. The top card pairing is great for you and I agree with your turn bet. But that was the best card, other than your straight outs, that you could have hoped for. Why would villain be worried if the middle or bottom card had paired. Should he really think that you had bet the flop with middle or bottom pair. If I were in villain's position I would not discount the cleanness of any of my overcard outs in deciding whether or not to continue based on the middle or bottom card pairing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without a doubt I do agree my "bluff outs" are best when the 9 pairs, but its also very reasonable when a middle card pairs as well. Of course this is a play best made against an overly aggressive player who knows when he is beat, it is not a play I would advocate using against the average calling station.

As for your last sentence, I disagree. My flop bet into the pre-flop raiser signifies a pair at a minimum, although not necessarily top pair, and the turn bet signifies 2 pair at a minimum (although he would be more likely to assume trips). Considering the raising frequency of the villain its not likely his overcards paired, I doubt the villain would continue to consider his overcards are good enough to win the hand, even if the bottom cards paired.

Minor afterthought I'd like to add... the flop bet is a small investment to make into the pot in hopes that the turn environment improves. If the villain decided instead to call and the pot size increases to cover the spread to continue chasing the gutshot, then its a good thing. If the field slims due to the villain's raise, then thats good too, and worth calling the raise considering how many perceived outs there now are.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

JoshuaD

06-15-2005, 03:13 PM

I like the flop bet alot. I don't think you're gonna be able to get AA-QQ to fold this hand though. He's got highcards and you imporve frequently enough for this to be profitable, but it's important to know that AA is probably seeing a showdown here.

QTip

06-15-2005, 03:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
PS: I used this play on you once in a live game and took down the pot there as well. I never discussed it back then, so its fantastic that you are in this discussion now.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/laugh.gif Awesome!

MaxPower

06-15-2005, 04:27 PM

I'm not sure what wearing blinders means, but I think betting the flop is OK. Colgin is making some good points. This is not a great time to semi-bluff because you will very rarely take down the pot on the flop. But that small chance plus the chance that you will improve to a straight, plus the chance that you will take down the pot on the turn, plus the chance that hitting one of your overcards will be good, plus the oppotunity to get someone to fold a hand that might outdraw your top pair hand, plus the deception, and the fact that you are going to call one bet anyway all make betting a good option.

Derek in NYC

06-16-2005, 07:03 PM

1. I agree that the turn bet is fine.

2. I agree with Krishan that the flop bet sucks for the reasons he stated.

In thinking about your reasoning, I see that it relies heavily on you being able to bluff on later streets assuming that the board remains ragged (and based implicitly on the idea that people will think the big blind is more likely than not to be raggy). There are a few problems with this thinking:

1. The board is semi-coordinated with a heart draw (and weird str8 draw for a raised pot).

2. The field is large enough that you can't guarantee that UTG's raise will get you heads up (i.e., making 4th street bluffable). Remember that MP called two cold, so even if you're putting UTG on big unpaired cards, you can't be so dismissive of MP. If he holds a pair like 77 or 88, he will come along for the ride, or re-raise. In other words, I dont think your bet on the flop is likely to either win the pot immediately, or even set up a bluffable (HU) confrontation on 4th street.

3. You are putting UTG villain on exactly unpaired overcards. While this is tempting to do against "hyper aggressive preflop" players, guys like these also get dealt pairs occasionally. A middle pair will stick with you unless a ton of overcards fall, and they may stay with you even if the overcards come.

4. Finally, your read on this player suggests that he wears "blinders" post flop, which tells me he's not a particularly thoughtful player. Guys like this find laying down in raised pots--particularly laying down on later streets--to be very difficult to do. I actually think that if you were going to make this play, you'd want to do it against a thinking TAG who could get away from a hand like AK, not a hyperaggro monkey. Remember, monkeys always draw.

Bottom line: this all smells like FPS to me, and the most clearly correct way of playing the hand is as a 4 out draw to the gutshot, which means you check the flop and hope to peel one off cheap.

Luv2DriveTT

06-16-2005, 07:23 PM

Derek: see HPFAP "When the pot gets large" for a similar, yet not the same scenario. Remember it's just one small bet on the flop in hopes that you will isolate. If you don't, then its OK as well because you would have check-called the flop anyway since the Hero has a gutshot draw that he will most likely have the odds to call. Hero's flop bet into the pre-flop raiser is essentially ensuring he has those odds.

I knew this hand would be controversial, the players who lean towards the more nitty/Jim Brier Middle Limit Hold'em "look for every opportunity to fold" philosophy would hate it, those who push small edges harder would love it.

PS: Glad this thread lives on.... it deserves discussion

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

Derek in NYC

06-16-2005, 07:42 PM

I think the presence of MP who called two cold (and to a lesser extent the SB, who called 1.5 bets cold), makes your assumption about being able to get the pot HU by betting into the pre-flop raiser, a dubious proposition. If you can't get the pot heads up where you will have 4th street bluff equity, your play doesnt work.

sthief09

06-16-2005, 08:10 PM

flop bet is good. I don't like the turn bet. I check-call there. it gets raised too much and he calls too much

Luv2DriveTT

06-16-2005, 09:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
flop bet is good. I don't like the turn bet. I check-call there. it gets raised too much and he calls too much

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the Villain folds 50% of the time on the turn here, which makes the turn bet correct. If he calls I still have 4 outs, if he raises I fold. I like my odds /images/graemlins/smile.gif

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

Luv2DriveTT

06-16-2005, 09:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the presence of MP who called two cold (and to a lesser extent the SB, who called 1.5 bets cold), makes your assumption about being able to get the pot HU by betting into the pre-flop raiser, a dubious proposition. If you can't get the pot heads up where you will have 4th street bluff equity, your play doesnt work.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I don't get the hand heads up, then I still play it the same as if I check-called (which I would most likely have done anyway since I had the odds to do so). Therefore the flop bet is a good investment to slim, and if slimming doesn't work to play on as if I was last to act.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif