Fold straight draw on turn- Much fear in this one, there is

[flair1239]

UTG IS A LPP: Not huge but stats are 34/5/1. Has not done much to show otherwise.

MP2: LAG but stats are from previous sessions (47/13/2). This session has just been showing down random crap but has been aggressive.

Hero is button W/ T /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG Limps, MP2 limps, Hero overlimps, BB checks

Flop: (4-players) (4.4SB) (J /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif)

UTG bets, MP2 Raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG Caps, MP2 calls, Hero Calls.

Turn: 8BB (3-players) 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

UTG Bets, MP2 raises, hero folds

Fears of drawing dead. Also fears of making stright on river and paying off multiple bets. Will I ever be a Jedi? Should I have a sex change?

Feel free to rip me.

[billyjex]

Pot is 11bb. You are getting 5.5 to 1 to call with the risk of it being raised behind you. You have six outs that may not be that clean, since someone already might have the flush or a full house. Folding here is good.

[cassady]

the fold is definitely a good one. Not getting pot odds, too many ways to be beaten.

[brettbrettr]

Perfect?

[sy_or_bust]

into the muck, you must go.

[flair1239]

shameless bump for morning crew...

[bigalt]

i don't know if you need a bump, you were right to fold here.

as for the sex change, take that one to the psychology forum.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't know if you need a bump, you were right to fold here.

as for the sex change, take that one to the psychology forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

Noted

Noted

Noted

Felt stupis as sson as I bumped it. Apologies

-Flair

[Evigt_Drabbad]

Fold preflop. And if you accidently clicked call, fold on flop.

[Lurkmaster Flex]

Why 3 bet this flop? I don't see the value here with 2 hearts and agression shown infront. You are looking at 6 clean most of the time, sometimes less if something like KhTh is out. Not much you are going to push UTG off that's going to do you any good. If you make your straight you want his lone j to pay you off.

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
Why 3 bet this flop? I don't see the value here with 2 hearts and agression shown infront. You are looking at 6 clean most of the time, sometimes less if something like KhTh is out. Not much you are going to push UTG off that's going to do you any good. If you make your straight you want his lone j to pay you off.

[/ QUOTE ]

i am with you here.

this is obviously no spot for a value bet and a free card play won't work most of the time.

turn is an easy fold.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. And if you accidently clicked call, fold on flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an easy call from the button with two loose player in behind me. It has the ability to flop big and due to my position, I will rarely get stuck as I did in this hand.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why 3 bet this flop? I don't see the value here with 2 hearts and agression shown infront. You are looking at 6 clean most of the time, sometimes less if something like KhTh is out. Not much you are going to push UTG off that's going to do you any good. If you make your straight you want his lone j to pay you off.

[/ QUOTE ]

i am with you here.

this is obviously no spot for a value bet and a free card play won't work most of the time.

turn is an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I tend to agree about the three-bet. Except for a couple things (I would like feedback on these thoughts). The raise on the flop was from the aggressive player and could have meant many things. The bet from the passive player actaully meant a little more to me. My thought process was that a three-bet on my part, might freeze the original bettor if he only had top pair or even two pair. If I could induce the original bettor into checking the turn, I thought that might keep the aggressive MP player from blowing me off a live draw on the turn.

As it was the 3-bet, was not without some useful puropse in that on the turn I had little doubt I was DOA.

[wildwood]

Hi flair
I tend to be aggressive on a draw if I think I have a chance to win by spiking a pair. You might buy some outs this way and increase your winning chances. The hand quiz on pg 285 of ssh is one example of this. Catching an eight or a ten doesn't appear to help your hand much here. I think the fold on the turn is correct here, but pot size definitely factors into the decision. It's not always an auto-fold when bigger draws are out. fwiw

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
on the turn I had little doubt I was DOA.

[/ QUOTE ]
I doubt that you would've felt this way if the 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif would've hit the turn.

I've been debating this flop 3-bet and came to the conclusion that it's a good bet - although I also think that I'm skewed by seeing UTG cap the flop. My thinking here revolves around your reads.

With UTG being LP and leading the flop - he must have something. I don't think that him 3-betting the flop (after he lead the flop, MP raised and Hero smooth calls) would be so far fetched (this is where I think I'm skewed by seeing the cap). I'd also expect the aggro MP to then cap after UTG's 3-bet and you'd be calling another 2 SBs.

My point being that with the combination of your reads and the action up to you on the flop I think it's fairly likely that you're going to put in 4 bets to see the turn anyways. If you operate under this assumption AND intend on seeing a turn card then you're better off 3-betting the flop and possibly taking advantage of the benefits of 3-betting like: possibly slowing down the initial bettor raiser or getting a free river card.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
It's not always an auto-fold when bigger draws are out. fwiw

[/ QUOTE ]


I did not feel this was necessarily an auto-fold, which is why I posted it.

However, once the reads come into play, I think it becomes a autofold.

With what kind of hand does a passive player cap the flop with?

I am thinking a set or two pair.

As for the Aggressive MP player, he could have had alot of things, top pair, flush draw, pair and a gut shot, PP below jacks...etc.

I don't think a flush card by itself would have made this fold easy, but with the action and the worst possible card, I think continuing is -EV.

I will say this, I have not checked the results for this hand yet. I was 3-tabling and after I folded I intentionally went to another screen. I will argue, even if I was "wrong" this time, over the long tem in this situation, I have to think folding is the best option.

I think my flop 3-bet was thin, but I think my reasoning behind it was sound.

[meep_42]

This is textbook easy.

You're getting 6-1 on a 6 outer, at best -- with the possibility of paying 3 or 4 bets to see the river. Even not considering anything else, this is a fold.

-d

[wildwood]

In this hand, I don't think the pot is nearly big enough to continue, but even ssh, pg 149, advocates "continuing when you might be drawing dead" if the pot is big. ssh, pg 150, "observing strong betting alone is not enough evidence" fwiw