NBA BETS HOW DO YOU BET?

[bob2007]

I'm new to sportsbetting. I was just wondering how everyone bets on NBA. So far, I've just be using my general knowledge of teams and the player matchups to predict my winner. I look at the odds to see if I'd get enough money for my bet. Right now I'm only betting the winner type bets where they list them at i.e. + 160, -190, haven't bet totals or point spreads yet.

[Teddy]

I'm not too sure what you are asking, but typically different people bet moneylines, spreads, or totals in the NBA... As a beginner, try to focus on spreads/moneylines as opposed to totals, since you are relying on your general knowledge of teams.. The best advice is to remember that sports betting is a long-term thing.. You can't judge your ability on a few weeks of betting.. Also be careful of falling into traps where you bet on your favourite teams as I'm assuming your knowledge of the game comes from the fact that you are a fan..

[Wildbill]

Lets just put it this way, knowledge as the typical fan thinks of it is not really worth much in this game. Betting is a whole different world and my best advice is to make paper bets. Never was easier to do, you can even virtual shop lines to get a real feel for what a quality handicapper does and not risk a dime. After a few months of that where you almost certainly will be humbled by your results, you can start learning how to beat the game. I know there are things to look for, but really I am coming to this simple conclusion that the best thing to happen to someone in something like this is to get humbled early and often to realize how tough it is and how much you need to just work hard at it. Once you have done that you are far ahead of the guys that will realize it later down the road short a lot of bankroll. After you decide you must put money on it, always play under your means and ability. Keep your stakes at a level where it makes little difference to you whether you win or lose, just that you are playing smart. Eventually you will build up successfully and playing at much higher stakes, yet the stakes still won't cloud your judgement. That is, to steal the lingo of the 90s, the best path to profitability.

[Raken]

Years ago when I lived in Vegas I did a lot of NBA betting. I bet sides almost exclusivly. The most important factor that worked for me was "current form."

The line on a game is usually a simple function of the results of games previously played between the two teams with an adjustment for home court. That ignors the important element of human emotion. It is the human elements of desire and hustle that often decide the point spread winner. So I first looked at the current form of the teams playing each day. Ideally I would see a match up with one team playing well and one poorly. Next best was one playing well and the other playing average. Then, I would take the team playing better than usual, whether fav or dog. There are other factors which influence each game, but, current form is the one I found most effective.

It takes a lot of work to do NBA betting well. There are many teams and games every night. There are a lot of stats and special situations to be aware of. If you have questions, I'll be happy to help you when I can.

Raken

[Wildbill]

This is the beauty of sports betting. My method, and its worked over a decade, is to generally go against the hotter teams and with the colder teams. In baseball I do the opposite, but in the other 3 sports I have found over time that regression to the mean is more powerful. You are very right, lines on daily sports are very simplistic, but I find that within certain parameters and time frames, things are more likely to go to zero. This isn't to say I ignore the hot teams, I just tend to bet against them unless they show very strong form in which case I pass on the game. I found over time that only baseball works for me in streaks and only to a certain degree. I know plenty of successes in Vegas that do price on current form so it certainly is possible to work things in different ways and still be a winner with the proper amount of work and rational thinking.

[Raken]

If you could provide a few examples of betting against hot teams and on cold teams, I would appreciate it. I have just started looking at NBA bets again after years on the sidelines. I'm always interested in considering new approaches to bet selection.

Raken

[mikelow]

Simple. Play the spreads and totals (avoid books that shade totals with a money line).

My simple system is:

Get the opening lines, check injuries, and wait until about 15 minutes before the first game starts. Check the lines again, and if you see a side or total move two points, bet the other way.

The NBA is a tough proposition.

[Raken]

"if you see a side or total move two points, bet the other way." mikelow

Ok, you're betting against the public money. Just watch out for totals that move late. There have been two cases that I know about where the timekeepers for the Detroit Pistons in the Bill Lambier era and the Knicks in the Pat Riley years were suspected of fudging with the clock. I know the books took down the Piston totals after awhile because they were losing so much money.

Both teams were solid defense - half court offense teams. That's the kind of team where a timekeeper could have the most effect. Their game totals were usually close to the posted line. So a second's delay on killing the clock after a basket or change of posession could have a meaningful effect on the number of opportunities to score.

Raken

[Wildbill]

I would be careful on this for totals because totals moves generally aren't from the public at all except in the playoffs. Sides also move generally because of days of rest angles as the books are always fighting to set a number that gets enough action when one team doesn't have rest and their opponent does. People literally won't bet on a team that is coming off a game and its not uncommon to see a line 4 or 5 points off what you would think it would be. So in general I guess I am saying while its hard to beat the NBA, its still pretty informed money that makes the moves, especially if that money comes very late. If you truly want to see what the public, uninformed guys are betting, take the number about 20 minutes after its posted and then check again about 2:30pm Pacific time. If a number moves there, its probably not the wiser players on it. The smart money is almost always very early or last 2 hours before the action tips. And totals are so hard to gauge on a daily basis very little money comes from uninformed sources on it.