KK not good enough for a raise

[meleader2]

villain is 40/0 30 hands, i at least put the kid on a Q from the flat call on the flop instead of a reraise. the Jack on the river clinched me into nuts, at least in my head.


the flop bet was a feeler bet......so i thought i was either ahead or slightly behind (he has A kicker)

i constantly find myself noticing fools not raising...or just raising min with AA/KK/QQ yet pot betting with AK! i hate micro stakes.



Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.10 BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG ($12.85)
UTG+1 ($4.85)
UTG+2 ($7.50)
MP1 ($3.20)
MP2 ($7.30)
MP3 ($12.37)
Hero ($10.10)
Button ($3.75)
SB ($7.53)
BB ($3.35)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls $0.10, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Hero calls $0.10, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.40) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $0.4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $0.85.

Turn: ($2.90) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.75, UTG calls.

River: ($2.90) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7 (All-In)</font>, UTG calls $7.

Final Pot: $16.90

UTG has KK

[wtfsvi]

Fold preflop. I think raise if you must play.

[meleader2]

ok so that's it huh? "fold preflop". what if i had AQ? would i have "played it standard" by doing this? i love how everyone says "fold preflop" when they see a hand lose; yet when a decent hand like AQ loses it's just that the villain got the better of Hero.

[slayerrdn]

If I call preflop and he comes out firing pot the raise is ok but you have to realize on a board of 55Q unraised he could easily have a 5.......he checks the turn I probably check as well unless I have a read on him he is on a draw...
However, I know for sure I'm not all in on the river...the jack really doesnt help you unless you thought he had qk or qa....
slayerrdn

[meleader2]

remember he wasn't on the blind, he limped EP so having that 5 would be possible, but slim. and my guess WAS that he had a better Q...his line doesn't dictate anything else. so when that J hit, against a normal opponent, i was way ahead. against him, KK was uber good

[wtfsvi]

AQ wouldn't lose that much. You would (or should) raise preflop, villain would get excited and reraise, and you would have an easy fold based on his PT numbers. Same is true if you raise QJ and get reraised. But I really don't like playing QJo at 10max.

[meleader2]

[ QUOTE ]
AQ wouldn't lose that much. You would (or should) raise preflop, villain would get excited and reraise, and you would have an easy fold based on his PT numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree with you 100% on that easy fold...if and only if (iff) he reraises.

which brings me to this very next idea:

i don't know what stakes u play at, i used to play (still do at times, had to reduce roll) at 50nl and KK is worth a reraise preflop. these micro stakes, however, i can show u examples where people would limp LP with AA, or just check/call down AA against aggression. it's not possible to put these guys on a hand except what you might think the board shows.

does anyone else agree with me/notice this god awful trend? poboy321 i know u play these stakes too, let me know what you think.

[elus2]

you played the hand such that Qx will fold against you. check behind on the turn and on the river call or bet for value if checked to you. bloating the pot the way you did on a paired board is a good way to lose money.

[jonnyUCB]

With your flop raise, you put utg on at least a queen. Check behind on the turn - not many free cards u can give that hurt you. The interesting decision is if he leads for 2 on the river after you check behind whether you decide to raise or not.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
remember he wasn't on the blind, he limped EP so having that 5 would be possible, but slim. and my guess WAS that he had a better Q...his line doesn't dictate anything else. so when that J hit, against a normal opponent, i was way ahead. against him, KK was uber good

[/ QUOTE ]

You said he had 40% VP$IP? Who knows what he could be limping with UTG... how has he been playing postflop? You said he is 40/0 preflop so far, so I'm assuming his postflop play has been at least slightly passive as well. I wouldn't be too happy seeing him bet the flop here. When you limp behind someone with a hand like QJo, your goal shouldn't be to flop a pair and try to win money with it. There have been plenty of times when I've limped in and folded top pair for one bet on the flop because I couldn't beat many hands someone would bet with. With these cards I want to either make a big hand and double up, or use my position to steal the pot when everyone seems weak.

A lot of people in this forum seem to misuse the term "reverse implied odds." This flop is exactly what that phrase describes:

[ QUOTE ]
Implied odds explain situations when your odds are better than they seem. There are other times when you must realize that your odds are not as good as they seem. These situations occur when you have a mediocre hand with little chance of improving, which you think is the best hand at the moment, yet your opponent keeps betting. You think he may be bluffing, and you can beat only a bluff -- that is, a hand that is weaker than what your opponent is representing. However, since your opponent is controlling the betting, he will probably back off on later rounds if he doesn't have you beat. Thus, you are in the position of winning the minimum if you have the best hand but losing the maximum if you have the worst hand. The true pot odds in such situations are much worse than they seem, and so we call them reverse implid odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

There isn't enough information given on your opponent to say that your flop action is definitely wrong, however, it seems likely that you made a poor decision barring some read of UTG being super-awful (betting the flop and then calling a raise with ace high, etc). The only justification for betting the turn would be if you plan to then take a free showdown or if you think there's a reasonable chance of getting him to fold a better hand. The free showdown play seems pretty dubious since it seems unlikely your hand is good. As for getting a better hand to fold, I don't think it happens often enough to justify risking the money. The river is a horrible card for you to catch, but I think that your play on the previous rounds could still have saved you some money.

[meleader2]

i definetly made a mistake by betting that turn. it should have been a check/fold. thank you for the advice...reverse implied odds makes sense in this respect, and in fact closes up some holes for my later play.

thanks again.

[wtfsvi]

Wow. I've thought of the concept you describe, but I've certainly been misusing the term reverse implied odds. (At least to myself.)

Thanks for clearing that up soah. (Wherever you quoted from.)