Overpair to a monotone flop -- how's my river value bet look?

[MisterKing]

Pre-flop and turn seem standard... I don't think a frop raise is helpful, since I'm not folding anyone out with a decent one-card diamond draw. MHIG a huge % of the time on the frop, and more so on the turn I think, despite the PF action. The PF capper is actually pretty reasonable... 25/11/2, but given the flop and turn action I think AA/KK/QQ can be (mostly) ruled out for that player. AdKx seems much more likely, and I'm looking good against those cards considering at least some of his 15 outs are already folded or in other people's hands.

Harder to solve is CO's (20/1/1) holding... So, how'd I do on the river? - Anyone check this down?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, CO calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (17.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, CO calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (10.75 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls.

River: (16.75 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP3 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls.

Final Pot: 18.75 BB

[brettbrettr]

looks good.

[mtgordon]

I don't understand why you're not raiseing the flop. Are you taking one off to make sure it's not a scare card and to set yourself up for a raise on the turn? If that is your reasoning then that seems good. If you're just trying to build a big pot then your reasoning is wrong because you already have a big pot and you need to protect your hand rather than building a big pot.

Also I don't believe you can count some of your opponent's outs as already folded or in other people's hands because then you have to also up their outs for ever card that is in people hand's that isn't what they are trying to hit.

I would definitely bet the river.

[Sakuraba]

"I'm looking good against those cards considering at least some of his 15 outs are already folded or in other people's hands."

This really doesn't make much sense. The part about being in other peoples hands makes some sense. You can probably assume they would be more likely to stay in with a diamond than without one after the flop. If all three of them did have one diamond, they would each lose two outs.

You can't not count outs because they some of them may already been folded before the flop though. Of course, some of them have probably been folded, but non diamonds had just as good a chance of being folded.

I like how you played it (particularly the turn), but I don't think you can rule out AA, KK, or QQ. If I had any of those hands and you raised the turn, with a flush and a pair on the board, I think I would frequently call you down with AA, KK, or QQ. I think you played it fine.

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm looking good against those cards considering at least some of his 15 outs are already folded or in other people's hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

When calculating odds on the turn, you should use 46 as the denominator (which is all cards that are unknown to you). Thus, you cannot adjust the numerator by reasoning that some outs have already been folded.

[MisterKing]

Ok, I need to clarify. I really did not mean to say some of the outs were already folded. I DID mean to say that some were likely in other players' hands. There are only a few hands that do not contain a diamond that will stay past the flop. Mine is one of them. I'm not necessarily mathematically changing things because of this, but I believe it is true, and favorable to my position. Second, I believe given the pre-flop action that several opponents may have aces or kings in their hands, perhaps two players with AK, one AdKx, the other AxKd. This is helpful, since it effectively reduces the number of times I'm drawn out on by overcards that haven't improved by the turn. The confluence of these two factors (the shared overcards and the diamonds) are helpful to my hand, rather than harmful.

As for why I just called the flop, it was to limit my investment until I could see how the turn came. My hand, IF it was good on the flop, was set to either go way up, or way down, in value on the turn depending on what hit. Additionally, not raising the flop meant I could (potentially) offer tougher odds to my opponents on the turn with a raise. Also, as I noted, a flop raise would have been meaningless, as it would not have folded out any high one-card diamond draws. They'd have the odds to continue, and they would in fact continue... worst of all worlds.

Also, I agree that I cannot "rule out" AA/KK/QQ, but I do think they're less likely from the MP player once we've seen his turn action. CO is very curious, as he coldcalled two bets TWICE pre-flop. That's a strong hand for a 20/1/1, assuming my stats are at all indicative of his playing style. What is CO coldcalling twice PF and then continuing with that I can beat on the end? AKs non diamonds? AQs? Pocket 10s? The other two jacks for a tie? The range for CO seems pretty limited, which is why I posted the hand. Can anyone think of potential CO hands that I'm missing? Also, is anyone worried that a value bet might draw a raise from MP3? I assume we're folding to any raise on the end...

[Sakuraba]

I think his range of hands is probably wider than you think. I find that I am often surprised by what tight, passive players will call a raise with (and once he has called the first one, he is calling the other two)

I this is because most of these players really are not very good, but they know that certain hands are junk. So they play the same hands without regard for postition, a raise in front of them, number of playes in the pot, etc.

For example, I had a table coach I was playing with yesterday call three cold with 53s. The was about 28% VIP and this was one of the hands he played. He doesn't understand the reasons why, he just know he plays this hand.

A similar instance is that a moderately tight player will open limp on the button or cutoff with moderate hands. They just know that they have a "calling hand" so that is what they do. Basically, these players are just playing their hand without much thought about anything else.

It is not that intuitive to many players that coldcalling is really bad. A player tight cannot have done much serious thinking about the game.

[Sakuraba]

"Also, I agree that I cannot "rule out" AA/KK/QQ, but I do think they're less likely from the MP player once we've seen his turn action."

What do you think he would do differently on the turn with AA, KK, QQ, particularly without a diamond? You think he would three bet the turn?