5+5 deep stack river decision

[aggie]

Villian is in small blind. He's a tough thinking TAG. He may be capable of big bluffs but probably very rarely. He has 1600 and i have him covered. He probably views me as a solid player (we have not played much together)

I have QQ and open from MP for 35. 4 callers including both blinds

Flop ($175) 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif

checked to me and i bet $175. SB calls and everybody else folds.

Turn (525) 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

check, i bet $400, villian thinks for a long time and calls.

river (1325) J /images/graemlins/spade.gif

villian moves all in for $1010.

If villian had flopped a BIG hand, i'm sure he would have played it quickly on this board. I think he would have reraised AA or KK pre-flop. I was pretty sure he was on a draw until he moved in on the river and then i was very confused.

What's villians most likely hand?
Should i call this river?

[thabadguy]

Who is villain?

[aggie]

forget his name...I don't play in that game that much anymore but apparently he is a regular now.

[SpaceAce]

Ugh, that stinks. Because I suck at poker, I probably look him up and let him show me his T /images/graemlins/club.gifJ/images/graemlins/club.gif

SpaceAce

[thabadguy]

JJ, 7c9c, or a busted fd.You have to be right over 40% of time to call here.JJ is a little unlikely as he did'nt raise flop with 2 clubs, but if he read for you for an overpair, his line for JJ is understandable.If he is not bluffing, i see 7c9c very easily.
I dont think you can call here, this is an awful spot for him to bluff after you've been betting flop and turn hard.
If he checks river do u check behind?

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
You have to be right over 40% of time to call here

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting 2.3 to 1 so i need to be right 30.3% of the time

[ QUOTE ]
If he checks river do u check behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely!

[Bet_to_Nguyen]

Would Ac Jc make this move?

[thabadguy]

Sorry, my bad...
If you check this behind then you have to fold this.
Villain knows you probably will check behind if he is a tough thinking TAG, and is trying to get some value for his hand. I muck.Results?

[aggie]

[ QUOTE ]
Would Ac Jc make this move?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was 99.99% sure my opponent would not show me AJ if i called! It's either a bluff / missed draw, Jc10c, or JJ...Those are the only hands i could see my opponent holding

[thabadguy]

I definitely dont see AJ here.

[thabadguy]

Sorry, i thought the 3rd card on the flop was a 4 for some reason..now that i see its a 5..7c9c is unlikely...JcTc JJ or busted fd.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
He may be capable of big bluffs but probably very rarely.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's villians most likely hand?

Sure smells like JcTc. TT or JJ also are possible, of course.

Should i call this river?

Did you think he wanted you to call or fold?

[Jester999]

Speaking from the perspective of someone who's pretty darn tight, I have a hard time believing Jc10c. I think he's got 10s, Js, or AcKc. Those are all hands I'd call from the SB with.

The bottom line to me is this: if he's the thinking player you describe, he's squarely got you on an overpair. So, if he thinks of you as a solid player he thinks he might get you to lay down your big pair. I think most good players hate losing big pots with an unimproved overpair, so he probably thinks you're ripe for a move. So, the thing that I come to is his bet size. If he's got you on your hand and he's just made a set why wouldn't he value bet you? Does any of that makes sense? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I'd be interested to know your answer to Diablo's question because this is the kind of hand that's A LOT more fun to play live.

[Dr. StrangeloveX]

Does he really think you will call here with AA/KK?

What about Q /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif that was considering moving you off your big pair on the turn but thought better of it, and now hopes you caught a set or will make a big call.

[aggie]

I mulled over the decision for a long time and came to the conclusion that his most likely holding was JJ. I called anyway, and he showed me two jacks? Aparantly his plan was to move all in on any club, 9, 4, or J....Interestingly, i was probably going to fold to an allin on any of those other cards, so i was destined to make the worst possible decision no matter what came.