The truth about fluctuations?

[Psy_Mike]

Hey there!
I'm a frequent reader of several poker forums, including 2+2, and it's not uncommon that I hear people claim how they rarely have a losing streak, or how they never get any fluctuations playing SnGs (or very small ones when they do).

However in the last month or so I've had huge fluctuations. Well, not huge, lost about 30% of my BR the past few days. That it's smaller than in CGs I can understand, but should I really listen to those who claim they have no fluctuations at all. I started the month by making about $270 or so in about a week. The next week I'd lost all that and a bit more. I'm only down by $60 or so this month so it's not that bad.

Just curious how your fluctuations are?

[mosdef]

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it's not uncommon that I hear people claim how they rarely have a losing streak, or how they never get any fluctuations playing SnGs

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i think most people DO admit to "flucuations", as you call them. around here they are labelled as "variance".

a lot of confusion arises because different people mean different things when they talk about variance. some people mean deviations from expected performance, and some mean lengthy downswings below zero. these are two very different things, but often get labelled with the same word.

for example, suppose you have an expected winnings of, say, 0.25 buyins per tournament. if you play 100 tournaments, you would expect to be up 25 buyins. now, if you are actually up only 15 buyins you have actually experienced a downswing AKA a fluctuation AKA "bad variance". however, many, many people would NOT call this a downswing because they haven't lost any money. so, when you read someone posting that they don't have downswings/fluctuations/variance it usually means:

1. they mean they havent hand a bankroll drop over a long period of games, even though their bankroll may have increased less than expected; or

2. they have played 57 tournaments total and are in for a rude awakening.

[Psy_Mike]

Ah, thank you for the reply and for clearing that out /images/graemlins/smile.gif

If you look at a single day, session or losing streak, what is the largest loss (counted in buy-ins) you have experienced?

[mosdef]

maybe 15 buyins down in a day. i don't play as many tournaments per day as some others though. if you play 40 or 50 per day, you are guaranteed to have a few 25 buyin drop days eventually.

[Mr_J]

Drop about 20 in a day, about 28 for a largest drop. Had a lot of prolonged bad luck at the $33s where I was breakeven over the 500 I played a few months ago.

Best gain in a day is 27 buyins, and best overall upswing, well longterm is always an upswing for a winning player /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[mosdef]

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well longterm is always an upswing for a winning player /images/graemlins/wink.gif

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see what i mean, OP? some people would say an "upswing" is a fortunate upward deviation from expected, whereas Mr J includes his expected winnings in his "upswing".