Yet another JJ hand that I hate

[Bodhi]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

I'm sorry, no reads at the moment on UTG. The CO is another typical gambler type who knows to raise sometimes preflop, but doesn't know what to do afterwards. He will always wait for the turn or river in order to check-raise his good hands; this is the first time I've seen him show straightforward aggression.

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB calls, UTG calls, CO calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (16.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, CO folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 17.50 BB

[AmarilloJim1]

I think you should've called one more bet.

[Bodhi]

Really? There's a one-gap six-straight on the board, 3 to a flush, and the unknown check-raised the turn after betting the flop into the pfr. What really got me in this hand was that I was trapped for 2 bets on the turn, because if another heart fell on the river, I would have to show down. If I there hadn't been some slim chance of my redrawing to beat a straight or two pair I would have folded the turn.

[benkath1]

I'm curious about yout turn play. Why call the check raise if you are going to fold for one on the river? Would you have called had a heart came? Or a J?

I'd just like to know your thoughts, because I think I'm losing a ton of money on the river.

Thanks,
Ben

[Firefly]

I think i call closing the action getting 17.5:1...
I don't think your ahead a whole lot but i think i'd call, it could be a strange TT or A7..not that those are awfully likely, but...for 17.5 and closing..i'd probally call (As you might be able to tell i'm extremely confident about this /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Firefly]

He's got the J high flush draw.

[benkath1]

[ QUOTE ]
He's got the J high flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you think utg is betting the flop and check raising with less than a J high flush?

[Bodhi]

Yes, I think he likely has less than a J high flush (very likely two pair, a set, a smaller flush, or a straight). I normally wouldn't draw to that, but after the check-raise the odds seem to make it worthwhile to see the river.

[benkath1]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

I've been sitting her for 5 minutes trying to figure this hand out. I guess with no read on utg it doesn't really matter, but I'm having a hard time thinking you're not drawing dead.

If utg is a standard player, what hands does he limp with utg that are lower than J high?

22-99, 89s-56s

I read a post about someone (proably me) Raising on button with QJo. One response was the utg limper would likely have a better hand than you already. Just got me thinking about what kind of hands utg's limp with and how they play a hand oop.

thoughts?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
River: (16.50 BB)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm paying this one off. The pot is big enough and the extra information might be helpful. I would like to know what he limped UTG and had when he bet into a ragged flop with a PFR left to act. He may recognize CO's gambling plays and is check-raising with top pair or an overpair smaller than yours.

You need to have a sense of your confidence level on your reads. A river fold getting 17.5:1 means that you're about 95% certain he has you beat. If it were heads up, the pot would be smaller, and the play would be more transparent, making a fold here better. But here, CO inflated the pot to give you padding in case you read it right.

Here's something to consider:

If you are 95% certain that he has you beat, calling is EV = -0.075 BB
If you are 90% certain that he has you beat, calling is EV = +0.850 BB

IT'S NEARLY A FULL BB ERROR IF YOU FOLD WHEN YOU ARE 90% CERTAIN YOU'RE BEAT!!

This is why folding the river with a decent hand to one bet when the pot is big is a bad bad idea. I think against an unknown, you can say that an error of 5% is more than reasonable.

Here is a hand (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2606483&amp;page=0&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1) where I talk about confidence in your reads. In that hand, it was easier to pick up a read and establish a confidence level because it was heads up. I didn't calculate it, but I think I need to be over 97% certain that he never misplays his hand for me to fold on the river (Go calculate it - it's good exercise). When the pot is big, it only takes small errors to turn a fold into a call.

[afk]

Since the board is also drawy and the pot is big I might call the flop raise and raise the turn. However I guess there aren't all that many "safe" turn cards, as they'll either be over cards or they'll really help that draw - so I guess the flop 3bet is fine. I'd probably make the crying call on the river.

[bozlax]

The only thing I hate about this hand is that you spent 2BB on the turn to fold for 1 more on the river. If you're going to call a C/R on the turn you're pretty pot committed to seeing a showdown for one bet.

That said, I don't think I'm folding this turn, either. I file this under the cost of doing business as a poker player. Who knows what CO is doing, but an unknown could easily have 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, here. He could have A7s (I actually would be more surprised to see 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif or a hand containing a 3 or an 8 than the A7s). But having come this far you have to see his hand for one more.

That said, speaking from UTG's perspective, I love seeing CO fold this river, because I've noticed in the monkey-see-monkey-do world of Party Poker, if I'm up against two and the first folds the second will frequently follow him out for some reason...I don't understand it either.