interesting flop decision w/ the read

[gomberg]

5-10 NL - I made a loose preflop call just cause table was readable - wasn't going to lose money w/ a pair.

UTG ($902)
UTG+1 ($1112.25)
UTG+2 ($1197.9)
MP1 ($535)
MP2 ($557)
MP3 ($200)
CO ($300)
Hero ($1000)
SB ($1050.25)
BB ($1000)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $10. CO posts a blind of $10. SB posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls $10, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 (poster) checks, CO (poster) checks, Hero calls $10, <font color="#CC3333">SB (poster) raises to $45</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls $40, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero calls $40.

Flop: ($180) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $200</font>, UTG+2 folds

Pretty sure w/ this overbet SB has QQ-AA - what's the best plan?

[Allinlife]

How does a minraise look here? calling is not in order I think, since too many cards can kill action.

By minraising, it may signal that you have a Qx/ straightdraw stuff and get AA/KK to push over the top and it'd be very hard for them to fold AA/KK to minraise. Pot will be too big in turn for them to fold over pair on a blank it seems. QQ gets my stack here /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Riskwise]

yeah, definitely not calling.
i think i would go with a miniraise because of the reason listed above and your both almost committed at the turn.

[fsuplayer]

i push, it looks like a draw.


any other raise sizes are silly and suspicious looking.

[Popinjay]

Unless gomberg frequently minraises I really don't like a minraise here. It allows KK and AA to get off too easily and you lose the max to QQ.

Calling is the way to go I think. Any card 2 through 7 falls on the turn you are going to be able to get all-in when he bets on the turn again. That's 28 cards if I counted right.

[flawless_victory]

this flop plays itself... ALLIN BABY!

[gomberg]

This is a spot I usually push, but I hesitated because...

a) I know what he has - and he doesn't know what I have (and I have position)
b) I hadn't been pushing my draws and he's been at the table for a while, so I don't know if he'll call if I push
c) If a really bad card comes on the turn (J or 9), I could get away if he bets hard and not lose my stack
d) If I get it all in on a turn blank, my edge is a bit bigger than getting it in on the flop.

The only reason to push was to get more action from scare cards. I guess any pairing of the board, J, K, 8 are scare cards. Still not sure on this one...

Becuase of the factors I listed, would anyone consider a call here?

[gomberg]

I called for the reasons I listed. An low card came on the turn, he bet $250 or so, I pushed, he called and MYHIG - he had AA.

I still don't know which play is better in the long run...

[108suited]

I don't like it mainly due to the possible scare cards that may come on the turn, as well as the chance you may be drawn out on when the turn hits. Also, there's quite bit of money in the pot after you call the flop bet thus making a raise more attractive than if the pot were small).

The amount of the raise on the flop seems flexible, anywhere from a miniraise, to a pot sized raise, to an all in seems fine.

[gomberg]

OK - I got off my lazy a** and did some analysis.

It ends up, if my math is right, that this decision is very close - so I like to be more aggressive when choosing between two similar options, so a push is best I think.

If I put my opponent on AA-KK, then a push is worth

$443.5 - $63.5x, where x=% time opponent folds

With pessimistic assumptions
-13 cards on turn i fold to bet (A,K,J,9)
-8 cards opponent folds to my bet after a check (8,Q,T)
-24 cards I stack opponent off and win / lose based on hand percentages

With these assumptions, a call is worth $358.75

So add a little to that for the bad assumptions (probably up to $100 or so of EV, maybe more, and it's a really close situation - so I like a push better...

[n1bd]

If you add JJ to his range of hands, which I think you should, then pushing looks even better.