Daily Hand Post: QQ River check.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

30/60 on party

This hand isn't actually very interesting at all. It jus shows that value betting good players out of position can be very dangerous if you're not careful.

Hijack is like 18/7/1.5 or something. typical rock-tag that you'll see in these games.

BB is unknown but seems aggressive, but not retardly so.

I openraise with Q /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif. Hijack 3-bets me. BB coldcalls it all. I cap. CO calls.

Flop:T /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/heart.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB checks. I bet. Hijack raises. BB folds. I 3-bet. Hijack calls.

Turn: 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I bet and he calls.

River: J /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I check.

[toss]

Alright since you said value betting the river out of position is dangerous, you must think theres a reasonable chance that villain holds JJ or 89 or even trapping with trips. You checked because you'll getting raised is bad and you can induce a bluff from this type of player?

[Stack]

Yeah, I guess this is one of those situations where "when you can't see yourself fold after you bet and he raises, just check call".

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
you must think theres a reasonable chance that villain holds JJ or 89 or even trapping with trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

This player 3 bets with 89, like never.

[toss]

Okay I agree, but how about explaining why CDC checked this river?

[Stack]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay I agree, but how about explaining why CDC checked this river?

[/ QUOTE ]

The options are either bet/fold, or check/call (is bet/call an option?)

by check/calling we spend the same BB as bet/folding, but we see a showdown. The key here is that the opponent is reasonably agressive, and this board is perfect for him to bluff the river

[toss]

I don't see why this river is perfect for him to bluff on. The only hands that he could represent is JJ.

[Stack]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see why this river is perfect for him to bluff on. The only hands that he could represent is JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about representing a slow T?

[surfdoc]

Think about the range of hands that a reasonable player like this is 3 betting. Then think about what hands he is raising the flop with, calling a flop 3 bet and a turn bet with. Now, what hands are left that Chris beats here that will call a river bet?

[toss]

So the rock-TAG villain is going to river bluff CDC after he capped PF, 3-bet the flop, and lead the turn? Thats why CDC doesn't want to be the river?

[Brunger]

I am assuming you are giving the rock TT-AA and AK maybe AQ and you are either beat and will be raised, with the possible exception of another QQ, or he won't pay off a river bet. Looks like a fine check to me. Would you bet a river blank just to get payed off by JJ?

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
So the rock-TAG villain is going to river bluff CDC after he capped PF, 3-bet the flop, and lead the turn? Thats why CDC doesn't want to be the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. No. No.

The problem is not being bluffed. Please look at my last post and answer the questions.

The problem is that the villian only calls or raises if he has hero beaten.

[toss]

Oooh okay that makes a lot more sense.

Edit: Actually my response was supposed to be to Stack's posts. Sorry about the confusion.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
Alright since you said value betting the river out of position is dangerous, you must think theres a reasonable chance that villain holds JJ or 89 or even trapping with trips. You checked because you'll getting raised is bad and you can induce a bluff from this type of player?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, the only thing he'd be 3-betting with pre-flop that CDC beats is AK.

[Nick C]

If Hijack were a 3/6 player instead of a 30/60 one, I'd have trouble thinking of any way I could still be ahead on the river.

Anyway, though, I'm thinking 88/99 and overcards like AK (and maybe AQ) are probably possibilities in addition to the AA/KK/JJ I'd be fixated on.

JJ is popping the river if bet into. AA may as well.

Perhaps AK would take a stab if checked to, but that sort of seems like it would be a desperation bluff to me. (If Villain is putting any more money in with overcards, I think it's possible he'd be more likely to do so as a bluff-raise than as a call or simple bluff.) And I have doubts about AK calling, so I'm thinking we probably won't get another bet out of that hand no matter what.

I'm pretty sure I'd check and call, because I'd want to see a showdown and wouldn't want to pay two bets to do it. But I think CDC may have other reasons for his river check that haven't occurred to me.

[brettbrettr]

Even though its 30/60 his PRF is still 7. 7 is pretty low and I don't think he's making a lot of iso moves with those numbers. I could be relying on the numbers too much, but if its a decent sample it makes sense.