How tightly do you hold on to your read? [Archive]

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Aaron W.

06-10-2005, 05:48 PM

I've played with villain before. He's almost a TAG (19/5/1.5 after about 150 hands), but his postflop play is generally a little weak. Here are some notes I have on him (explanation provided in []):

Caught him betting after PFR checked rags [He limped in MP and called a raise from BB. BB checked a ragged flop and he bet out. I raised him with overcards+BD draws, BB cold-called and he folded. I'm not too sure what he had, but it's probably overcards or a small pair.]

K BB, K-R-C T97d f, K-F 8 t [He checked in the big blind, checked raised the T97 flush draw flop, called a 3-bet, then check-folded the turn when the 8 fell]

I had also seen him raise preflop, bet the flop, then check-fold the turn. Overall, he just seems weak.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $1.
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero raises, 4 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, Hero 3-bets, MP1 caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
MP1 bets, MP2 folds, Hero...

I'm already a little unhappy about getting check-raised on the flop, but I 3-bet because I've got MP2 padding the pot and because I may still have the best hand. That's an easy decision.

When he check-raises and caps the flop AND leads then turn, I'm very concerned. The notes have a hand where he check-raises, then calls and check-folds the turn, but the turn in that hand was scarier than this turn. Two pair or a flush draw are unlikely as he's not a donk preflop and he hasn't pushed a flush draw like that (there's a small chance he has Q/images/graemlins/club.gif and another broadway card of the same suit). He might have KQ or QJ (maybe even QT or Q9s, but that's *really* pushing it), in which case I'm golden, but he may also have 88 or 55 for a set. There's an outside chance he has AA/KK and got silly preflop.

What is your plan on the turn, and *MORE IMPORTANTLY* why is your plan better than the plans you didn't choose? (By the way, I played this differently during the hand than I would have played if I had extra time to really think it through carefully.)

deception5

06-10-2005, 06:21 PM

I'm putting in another raise on the turn. A 3-bet would make me slightly unhappy, but he'll almost certainly make this play with the queen (especially if he has a suited queen) which you are way ahead of. He could also be playing aa/kk this way or even worse.

The only hands you don't have a huge edge over are 55, 88, AQ /images/graemlins/club.gif and the remote Q8o/Q5o. I'm not giving him credit for one of these until he reraises me on the turn (at which point I still think I'm ahead but will slow down).

I thought about just calling the turn bet and raising the river but I don't like the idea of giving him a free chance to catch the flush here as even though your hand is very strong it's still vulnerable (and if he has a suited hand with the queen of clubs this is one of his few draws against you). I'd raise here and call down if 3-bet.

VBM

06-10-2005, 07:14 PM

given your read, Villain can find the fold button with something like a TPMK or middle pair, yet he caps the flop & leads the turn. he calls the flop 3-bet rather than caps Qx WHERE x < A AND x NOT IN (5, 8)

the only hands he plays this way that make sense based on your hands w/ him, is 55 or 88, to which you are drawing to a 4 clean outs, 1 Q & 3 A's and 2 5's vs 88 and 2 8's vs 55. give yourself like, 5-5.5 outs...enough for a call.

I call the turn getting 11.5:1. I raise or bet a rivered Q or A. I call a rivered 5 or 8. I fold anything else.

A turn raise vs. hands you now beat on the turn (58s, KK, AA) are on the very doubtful end of Villain's hand range.

calling down on a river blank, i'd like better vs a maniac or a LAG; as their ranges are wider & are more likely to include 58, KK, AA or Qx.

a turn fold is not giving yourself enough of a chance, with some outs & a large pot.

Aaron W.

06-10-2005, 07:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I call the turn getting 11.5:1. I raise or bet a rivered Q or A. I call a rivered 5 or 8. I fold anything else.

...

calling down on a river blank, i'd like better vs a maniac or a LAG; as their ranges are wider & are more likely to include 58, KK, AA or Qx.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do a risk/reward analysis. How sure do you need that to be to make your play better better than calling down?

Aaron W.

06-10-2005, 07:42 PM

Maybe it's a slow day today. Let me tweak the situation a little bit. Perhaps it'll get readers to slow down a little bit. Everything is the same except for the turn card. Is your decision any easier? Is it any different? Should it be?

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $1.
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero raises, 4 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, Hero 3-bets, MP1 caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
MP1 bets, MP2 folds, Hero...

SteveL91

06-10-2005, 10:53 PM

In the first scenario, I call. Chances are, he has 88 or 55; he may play Q8, but I don't know that he's loose enough to play Q8o in MP1, which is what he would have to have. Given your read, he's not pushing this hard against a PFR with just a pair of Q's. You have odds to chase your 6 outer. If you don't hit on the river, I don't have a problem folding against this specific opponent.

Fold in the second situation.

Aaron W.

06-11-2005, 04:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What is your plan on the turn, and *MORE IMPORTANTLY* why is your plan better than the plans you didn't choose? (By the way, I played this differently during the hand than I would have played if I had extra time to really think it through carefully.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I took a moment to contemplate the turn before I even called the flop cap. It's good to slow yourself down mentally when you get in a tough spot. Here's sort of a stream-of-consciousness thinking that can reasonably take place during the hand:

=== BEGIN THOUGHTS ===
Number of reasonable set hands (88/55): 6

Maximum number of queen hands that are losing to me (KQ/QJ): 16
But since I don't expect him to play these hands quite so strongly, I'll cut it way down: 2

Throw in one hand for a random two pair or donk AA/KK and I'm 6:3 = 2:1 in trouble.

Now bring on the turn card. <CLICK>

Another queen? That's odd. And he bet into me? That queen means it's half as likely he has a queen. Cut out one of the queen hands, and it's 6:2 = 3:1 in trouble.

I'm getting 11:1 to call. That's far more than enough for my seven outs.

If I'm unimproved on the river, should I call? I'll get 13:1 and I think I'm about a 3:1 underdog. Folding the river when the pot is this big to a single bet while holding a decent hand is bad.
=== END ===

Cutting 16 down to 2 is basically saying that there's about a 10% chance that he would overplay one of those queen hands (12.5% to be exact). You *MUST* leave a little buffer in your reads, because you're hardly ever going to get 100% confidence that your opponent will not misplay his hand.

In reality, I didn't think it through that carefully. Here's what my thoughts were like during the hand:

=== BEGIN REAL THOUGHTS ==
Crap. He's probably got a set. I think I'm in serious trouble. He might be overplaying KQ or QJ, but I doubt it. It's a good thing donk is padding the pot for me. Give me an ace or a queen! But not the ace of clubs! <CLICK>

Ooooh... queen. I've got seven outs. The pot is pretty big. This is a good call to chase. Do I want to pay him off on the river if I miss? I've got trip queens. The pot's too big to fold now... 12:2... yeah, I've got to pay it off. <CLICK>
=== END REAL THOUGHTS ==

The intuition isn't that far off from the more careful thoughts. Notice that they follow the same lines. Count the outs, check the pot odds, estimate the confidence of my reads, make a decision, and go with it.

I used to complain that I had bad intuition. If you crawl through the archives, you'll find me making estimates and then having to revise them because I sat down to compute something. Over time, I've developed that intuition by working through situations carefully and a little bit of table experience.

Now as an exercise, you should go through the same steps, except making the turn a blank. Does it make a turn call better or worse? What about the river call?

The river made the whole thing academic. The ace of clubs fell, he checked, I bet, he called. He mucked. He must have overplayed a queen.

By the way, I changed my mind about this hand about four or five times today before finally settling on this conclusion. For a little while, I thought that I should have raised the turn anyway because he'd 3-bet both a losing queen and a full house. But I overcounted the liklihood of him overplaying a queen because I knew the end result (I had cut the number of overplay hands in half, but after further reflection I realized how generous that was to me). Avoiding results-oriented thinking is hard.