Boring 10-25 River Decision

[Ulysses]

A few people I discussed this hand with had drastically different opinions regarding the river, so maybe it's a little interesting.

10-25, 10-handed

I have $2600. SB has me covered.

I open from MP for $85 w/ red KK. CO (so-so) calls, really bad SB calls.

flop Kc 8c 8d

SB bets $25. I call. CO folds.

turn (Kc 8c 8d) 3s

SB bets $25. I make it $200. SB pot-raises to $930. I call.

river (Kc 8c 8d 3s) 8d

SB checks. $2190 in pot. I have $1540 left.

Your move?

[9cao]

Check.

[ZeeJustin]

I check. He played the hand very strangely, minbetting the flop, checking raising the turn, and checking the river. Would he paly a king this way? Would he play AA this way? It seems much more likely that he has quads, or he has a hand that won't call any bet.

[nate1729]

Hmm. If you jam, I imagine he's calling with AA, AK, or an 8. 6 ways he can have AA, 4 AK. Something like 5 or so hands containing an 8. Which of these would he try to induce you to bet with, and which are most consistent with previous action? I'm not sure what SB's bets mean, but they seem more consistent with AA or an 8 than AK, though I'm not sure why.

This decision hinges, for me, on whether he would just call with AA preflop. If that's likely, I vote for a bet. Otherwise, depending on SB's betting tendencies, a bet is somewhere from marginally correct to clearly incorrect.

Without knowing anything other than "really bad," and noting that "really bad" to me means that he'd be more scared than he should be of the board pair, I vote to check.

If I'm totally miscontruing the situation, and he's the sort of bad player such that the relevant question is how much to bet, I vote to jam, both to balance the bluffs in this spot and for value.

--Nate

[JFB37]

Very odd line by Villian. On this info, I think I check too.

You say he is bad, bad how? Call way too much bad or bet way too much bad?

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems much more likely that he has quads, or he has a hand that won't call any bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a "really bad" player can pay off here without an 8 but I still expect him to turn over K8. 33 would be more amusing, though.

SpaceAce

[slupo]

Strange, strange hand.

Villian bets $25 into a $305 pot on the turn? Then re-raises the pot ($730)? This is either really good move or a really bad move. Either way it scares me.

River check scares me even more.

But if your read on the SB is a bad player, is he capable of playing an 8 this way? Especially the check on the river? I can't imagine most bad players risking a check on the river. They want to push and then show off their quads. Maybe his check on the river is genuine fright.

I think I push. It's hard not to get your chips in with a boat like that. Hopefully villain had A-K?

[Shaun]

I'd probably bet but maybe not my whole stack. If he has an 8 good for him. Often enough he will probably have a king only or 33. I'd say make a small enough bet to where he might call you with some wierdly played pair.

[Rotating Rabbit]

8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Robk]

[ QUOTE ]
If you jam, I imagine he's calling with AA, AK, or an 8. 6 ways he can have AA, 4 AK. Something like 5 or so hands containing an 8.

[/ QUOTE ]

if hell call with AK then hell call with any king. the third 8 makes his kicker irrelevant.

[ QUOTE ]
Which of these would he try to induce you to bet with, and which are most consistent with previous action? I'm not sure what SB's bets mean, but they seem more consistent with AA or an 8 than AK, though I'm not sure why.


[/ QUOTE ]

to me his opponents line looks like quads. the two min bets, followed by the reraise look like classic "weak means strong." similarly many weak players check when they unexpectedly improve to a very strong hand. so to me his river play is also consistent with quads.

[ QUOTE ]
This decision hinges, for me, on whether he would just call with AA preflop. If that's likely, I vote for a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

in my experience most players are much less likely to slowplay aa against two players.

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm totally miscontruing the situation, and he's the sort of bad player such that the relevant question is how much to bet, I vote to jam, both to balance the bluffs in this spot and for value.


[/ QUOTE ]

how are you going to get to the river in this situation with a bluffing hand? theres no need to balance here.

[Robk]

would you please explain your thinking on the flop and turn?

[captZEEbo1]

If your opponent is smart, he would just push the river with an 8 (knowing AA or AK (and obviously KK WILL call), given the turn call of his reraise, no?

I think I like a river push, but it's a pretty weird check.

[Yeti]

Heh, this is a great hand for analysis.

I think I push but it's so weird.

[nate1729]

Thanks for the feedback. I'm desperate to resort to enumeration exercises, because I'm a limit player who doesn't know what lines "look like" (nor, apparently, that kickers don't play in this situation.)

I agree that the minbets and river check add up to an 8 (in my mind) much more often than they do to something KK beats.

Thanks again.

[BluffTHIS!]

Unless you are dealing with a genius who can put you on your exact hand, which you said he was not, his turn overbet checkraise has all the earmarks of someone trying to push you off a hand, like as he had AK and wanted to avoid a split, since if he did have an 8 or AA he should want to keep you in putting you on AK yourself. I bet as much as I think he would call with AK here without a thought because of the way he bet and because he can't think you are going to bet his hand for him if he did have an 8. You want him to have AK and you want to get paid. Checking is for donkeys no matter what the actual result was.

[meleader2]

why just the call after sb raises huge on the turn? y didn't u push?

[BluffTHIS!]

He has position and wants to keep him in.

[theben]

you said this guy was a real donkey? sounds like hes got 33 in the hole and the river ruined his hand. that being said, i am not really sure what i would do. 33 isnt calling here, but a larger pair might call. quads is possible as well.

[esbesb]

Check -- only because he's "really bad."

[goofball]

Did you consider reraising all in on the turn?

[rootsmusic]

[ QUOTE ]
Check -- only because he's "really bad."

[/ QUOTE ]

[Jedster]

If you're going to bet the river, it seems like you have to bet a very small amount that a frustrated 33 might call OR an amount that might induce a bluff -- say a $400 bet that might make the SB think he can push you off the hand for $1k more. Obviously if you bet anything you must call a reraise. It's a weird check for quad eights out of position after showing such strength on the turn -- usually I wouldn't expect to see an eight here.

I do wonder why you don't reraise the turn -- unless the SB is on a stone cold bluff, why not strike while the iron is hot with a $800 reraise? Bad players are more likely to pay off when they are in the moment.

If you do put him on a stone bluff, then make a small bet on the river to try and induce another bluff.

[Ulysses]

I pushed, he called. He had T8o. Bah.

On the turn I thought he had most likely an 8, somewhat likely an AK, or a small chance of a weaker King.

When he checked the river, I pondered checking for a few seconds, but just couldn't see how he checks an 8 there.

[Popinjay]

I told you you should've checked.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to bet the river, it seems like you have to bet a very small amount that a frustrated 33 might call OR an amount that might induce a bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

This guy is not a sophisticated player. He will not bluff checkraise that river. He will, however, pay off 100% w/ a King.

[ QUOTE ]
I do wonder why you don't reraise the turn -- unless the SB is on a stone cold bluff, why not strike while the iron is hot with a $800 reraise? Bad players are more likely to pay off when their in the moment.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has an 8, I can stack him on any river except an 8 or probably a King. If he has a King, he might get away on the turn to a reraise, but I'm likely to get more money out of him on the river if I just call. And if he's just bluffing, he could fire again on the river. There's also a chance that he folds a flush draw which would have gotten there on the river. The only downside I see is if he's going to call all-in w/ a flush draw but check-fold if he misses.

[thabadguy]

I read the results, so this post is probably result oriented, but the line of thought that he seemed to have is, "he called my reraise on turn...he must have a good hand..and if i check this...he will probably bet it."
If he is the kinda player who tries to push people off pots, then this river check is not that horrible of a move...i mean, he pot reraised turn, and u called...his check could be construed as giving up on the hand
(which is probably what you thought of it, im guessing)
I mean your turn call is extremely scary, no?

[Mikey]

Here are the worse hands that will call you.

AA, Kx, and thats it.

33 is almost not going to call you.

just check it and say nice hand to the nice fella when he shows you (8/dick)

Think of the turn action, the only hand that would come over the top of you like that is an 8 with a very nice kicker like an Ace or 33.

Think of the hands on the turn he'd raise come over the top with.

[captZEEbo1]

I guess his logic on the river check is decent. It gets a busted flush draw to bluff, and surely and K or AA will bet here.

[LuvDemNutz]

-

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Think of the turn action, the only hand that would come over the top of you like that is an 8 with a very nice kicker like an Ace or 33.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, that statement is incorrect. Of course, those are the most likely hands. However, if you were to spend some time playing in the ultra-aggressive higher-limit NL games, you would realize that the range of hands that give big action is very, very wide.

[The Antagonizer]

I read the results but nonetheless I think this is an easy check behind. Most truly bad players will check that river with quads all day. Your mistake is thinking "he wouldn't check an 8 here"- don't expect rationality from poker players especially bad ones.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Your mistake is thinking "he wouldn't check an 8 here".

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, that much is clearly apparent.

[meleader2]

lol

[Ray Zee]

bad players check cinches and good players bet into them not believing that they could check in these spots.
the reraise on 4th is your read on his hand.

[Mikey]

"However, if you were to spend some time playing in the ultra-aggressive higher-limit NL games, you would realize that the range of hands that give big action is very, very wide."

then you should be doing very very well in these games.

FWIW, I didn't read the results of the hand before I posted my analysis, I didn't know there were any results.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
then you should be doing very very well in these games.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I am. Thanks for caring.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]

turn (Kc 8c 8d) 3s

SB bets $25. I make it $200. SB pot-raises to $930. I call.

Your move?

[/ QUOTE ]

Online, this play, by a bad player, is ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS a monster. Tiny bet, min-reraise or big honking reraise = "fooled you, I have you beat, nyah-nyah".

As an aside, this is a good time to move in, because he is saying he WILL NOT FOLD BECAUSE HE HAS MONNNNSTERRRR.

So, what would chumpy mcmoron consider a monster? KK, of course, but he doesn't have that, you have that. 33. or 8x. On the river, 33 will not pay you off (he would have to be insanely bad), and 8x has you crushed. So you check.

[mslucky]

If you have all the kings what does he have?
Well, he did play it like he had an eight too.
I would check against a good player or a bad player...if I played it the way you did. I play this hand several different ways depending on my opponent.

[arod15]

I would check. That last check makes me wonder if he is trapping. It is unlike me to check but this might be one of those rare instances that i do check. There are two reasons, one you are beat he has and 8 or two he doesnt have anything. EItherwway you wont win more you only stand to lose more.

[Laomedon]

This hand would've made me very angry...