JJ at Final Table. Call the reraise?

[LearnedfromTV]

Payout is 2000 for first down to 173 for tenth. Small increments till about 4th = 500. Been midstacked since the final 20, playing pretty tight as far as villain has seen . Villain hasn't played too many pots, but we haven't been at final table long and this is the first time I've seen him this tourney Name looks familiar so I think he's solid. i've seen allins from slightly shorter stacks (8-9K) with a pretty wide range of hands (a couple of the 18000 stacks had just doubled up), but of course not from this guy specifically.

No-limit Texas Hold'em $50+$4 (real money), hand #976,114,393

Long Kiss Goodnight Multi Table Tournament, 10 Jun 2005 01:18 AM

View Previous | Next hand for this table.

Seat 1: UTG ($10,584 in chips)

Seat 2: UTG + 1 ($43,248 in chips)

Seat 3: UTG +2 Hero [JH,JD] ($22,730 in chips)

Seat 4: MP 1 ($23,172 in chips)

Seat 5: MP 2 ($17,504 in chips)

Seat 6: MP 3 ($27,944 in chips)

Seat 7: CO ($18,361 in chips)

Seat 8: Button ($18,626 in chips)

Seat 9: SB ($49,184 in chips)

Seat 10: BB ($4,147 in chips)

ANTES/BLINDS
SB posts blind ($800), BB posts blind ($1,600).

PRE-FLOP
UTG folds, UTG + 1 folds, Hero sees jacks, says to self, "don't get in trouble", raises to $8,000, MP1 folds, Villain raises to $17,504 and is all-in, everyone else folds, Hero?????

[LearnedfromTV]

I'm calling 9500 to win 37K so I figure he doesn't need to have AK or a lower pair that often to make this + chip EV. Of course, call, be dominated, and lose, and I'm crippled and flipping coins with allins. Fold and I still have enough chips to play with.

[Lloyd]

Auto-call. You're getting about 3 to 1 odds. This is a no-brainer. But it's a no-brainer because of your initial raise.

You're afraid of Jacks and raised 5XBB. First of all, most of the time people raise that much pre-flop (other than shortstacks going all-in) they have a hand they are afraid of. So the range of hands he's putting you on is much greater than had you made a normal range. Because he's putting you on a larger range, you have to put him on a larger range. Lots of possibilities including big Aces and lots of pairs.

Secondly, my making such a large pre-flop raise you're making the odds very attractive when it comes back to you. Had you made a normal raise - let's say 2.5-3XBB the odds would have been much worse giving you a chance of folding. I say a chance because the odds would still be pretty good and most likely worth a call. But it would be a closer decision than the way you played it.

[woodguy]

There is about 28K in the pot when the action gets back to you, and you have to call 9.5K, so you are getting 3-1, no brainer call.

You tied yourself to the pot with your initial raise though.

You told yourself not to get into trouble, but then you raised 5xBB when you only have 13.5 BB's. You are now tied to this pot as any raise will give you the correct odds to call off the rest of your stack.

At this stage of the tourney, you should be raising around 2.5BB's as it will accomplish the same as 3x-5x raises and not tie yourself to the pot.

If you are raising 5x to mix up your play, meh, you are not accomplishing much unless you play with these very people on a regular basis.

Regards,
Woodguy

[schwza]

this call is trivially easy. i would prefer a 2.7x open-raise, and then you should call the reraise anyway.

[nightlyraver]

Woodguy stated it exactly how it is - for once we are 100% agreement /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[Jax_Grinder]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold and I still have enough chips to play with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know people (irrationally, imho) fear JJ bc it always seems to go down in flames, but at the final table, this is a horrible way to look at it. You have exactly 3 hands that you fear here (AA, KK, QQ) and 3 that you don't necessarily want to see (AK, AQ, QK). The range of hands that Villain makes this move with is significantly wider (almost any pair, AJ, A10, most suited As), particularly given the size of your raise. Instacall.

[woodguy]

Do we tend to disagree?

Regards,
Woodguy

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]


You tied yourself to the pot with your initial raise though.

You told yourself not to get into trouble, but then you raised 5xBB when you only have 13.5 BB's. You are now tied to this pot as any raise will give you the correct odds to call off the rest of your stack.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. Most of the time I tell myself not to get in trouble I do something stupid and get myself in trouble. I had made two or three raises at the FT thus far, all to 2.5x (3K at the 600-1200 level).

This type of situation happens a lot late in tournaments with medium stack- a hand that is probably best preflop but where you don't really want to see a flop but have too many chips to just push. Medium pairs are the best example, AQ/AJ/KQ also. I shouldn't be too scared of a call with jacks, but I cringe a little when i have something like 88 in this situation, especially when called by a bigger stack. Hands where you'd rather just take the blinds, but hell you can do that with any two. I guess if I become a better postflop player I won't be as scared in those situations.

[nightlyraver]

Yeah, from time to time.

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
Auto-call. You're getting about 3 to 1 odds. This is a no-brainer. But it's a no-brainer because of your initial raise.

First of all, most of the time people raise that much pre-flop (other than shortstacks going all-in) they have a hand they are afraid of. So the range of hands he's putting you on is much greater than had you made a normal range. Because he's putting you on a larger range, you have to put him on a larger range. Lots of possibilities including big Aces and lots of pairs.



[/ QUOTE ]

Good analysis. Because he's putting you on a larger range, you have to put him on a larger range.

If I may bumble through what many of you already understand: As I see it, you are referring to the first steps of the wheels-within-wheels multilevel thinking that one has to do to play winning poker. On the surface, my raise says "Pretty big pair" and his raise says "bigger pair", but assuming both he and I are thinking about what the other has and are capable of representing different hands than we have, it isn't that easy.

My opponent knows I might be making that raise with certain hands, some of which (like 55, 66, AT, stone bluff) will fold some of the time to an allin reraise. So no matter what he holds, he has some fold equity, although not very much. But given that he has some fold equity, this is probably a good reraise with two cards that figure to be overs to the kind of pair I have most of the time, as long as it isn't too likely he's dominated in case I have AQ or AK or something.

When he reraises, I know he makes that play with a hand with which he figures his reraise is profitable, which isn't the same thing as a hand that he thinks is better than my average hand, and certainly not my specific hand. I think this is what pros mean when they say "you can win without holding cards." The real question I am put to when i have to call this reraise isn't "who has the better hand?" but "given the hands with which villain could be making a profitable reraise, do I have a profitable call?" The key is that a profitable bet does not necessarily have to be made with a hand that is as strong as the bet claims. The fact that an opponent and you both know this and both know the other knows it makes things interesting.

Of course this kind of thinking can influence what hands I originally makes this raise with (because this kind of raise is responded to in a certain way and I would to avoid certain kinds of decision with certain hands).

If stacks are deeper (or in ring games), it also affects which hands I can rereraise with. Make a big enough four-bet when he has KK in a ring game and he folds because he "knows" you have aces and he isn't getting odds, unless he knows you are capable of representing aces without them some percentage of the time, which is a wonderful thing to be known for when you actually do get AA v KK.

Of course what makes poker great isn't this semi-contrived preflop KK/AA scenario but the fact that every in-between situation requires this kind of probabilistic analysis, and there are so many variables to account for in assessing not only what your opponent likely has, but also how he is likely to respond to your next move. I think this applies even more deeply postflop - I am just starting to see how intricate good postflop play really is.

Sorry for the long post, especially if I am stating the obvious.


P.S. He had KK. Of course. I finished tenth.