Critique all players- Interesting bubble situation

[DarrenX]

Hey guys- I've been lurking here for a few months trying to soak it all in... good stuff.

A friend sent me this hand that really had me second-guessing myself. I'll show you the whole hand (sorry, hand converter site is blocked at work /images/graemlins/tongue.gif), and thoughts on all players actions appreciated.

Party $55 sng.

***** Hand History for Game 2182684343 *****
400/800 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 12956280) - Thu Jun 09 22:22:33 EDT 2005
Table Table 12122 (Real Money) -- Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: kenos04 (666)
Seat 2: kirbynator77 (3596)
Seat 7: nott0m (658)
Seat 9: NOCLUE10 (5080)
NOCLUE10 posts small blind (200)
kenos04 posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to kenos04 [ Qc, 9h ]
kirbynator77 raises (800) to 800
nott0m calls (658)
nott0m is all-In.
NOCLUE10 calls (600)
kenos04 folds.
Creating Main Pot with $2374 with nott0m
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 5d, Jh, Th ]
NOCLUE10 checks.
nott0m: this will probably suck
kirbynator77 bets (1200)
NOCLUE10 calls (1200)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 4c ]
NOCLUE10 checks.
kirbynator77 checks.
** Dealing River ** : [ 3h ]
NOCLUE10 bets (500)
kirbynator77 calls (500)
** Summary **
Main Pot: 2374 | Side Pot 1: 3684
Board: [ 5d Jh Th 4c 3h ]
kenos04 balance 266, lost 400 (folded)
kirbynator77 balance 1096, lost 2500 [ Ks Kc ] [ a pair of kings -- Ks,Kc,Jh,Th,5d ]
nott0m balance 0, lost 658 [ Kd Kh ] [ a pair of kings -- Kd,Kh,Jh,Th,5d ]
NOCLUE10 balance 8638, bet 2500, collected 6058, net +3558 [ Qh Ah ] [ a flush, ace high -- Ah,Qh,Jh,Th,3h ]

[Kristian]

It jumps out at me that Kirby badly underbet flop and turn on this draw-heavy board. He was asking for it. But considering the strength of NOCLUE's draw, I don't see him folding it to any bet, so the hand had only one possible winner from the flop onwards. Kirbys bad play probably saved him money.

[brimstone1]

Ok.

So, on the turn, kirby is left with 1596 chips.

The main pot is 4774.

NOCLUE needs 4.11 to call.

[(2*1596+4774)/1596]-1= 3.99

Am I wrong?

So even if kirby went all-in on the turn, he wouldn't have gotten NOCLUE to fold.

Not too bad, considering implied odds, which he did get, and the gigantic chip lead he took by calling.

Of course, kirby giving him a free card on the turn was a mistake, but as you said, it doesn't seem NOCLUE would've folded anyway -- he still has 3080 left on the turn... at worst he'd be at 3080-1596= 1484 if he lost this hand, still not out.

But... if kirby went all-in on the flop with his 2796...

Hrm... 1.8... still good enough for an all-in call for NOCLUE who needs 1.86 to complete by river.

Goddamn.

NOCLUE had this hand the second it went to the flop.


Someone correct me if the math is wrong :\

[DarrenX]

Anyone think Kenos04's fold is incorrect?

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone think Kenos04's fold is incorrect?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, it is correct. also, that nottom guy deserved to bust out for being a terrible player.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone think Kenos04's fold is incorrect?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, it is correct. also, that nottom guy deserved to bust out for being a terrible player.

[/ QUOTE ]

whoops, i see you have 8 more chips than nottom. Only way you bust out is if nottom wins the hand. I call and hope to quadruple up.

[schwza]

i think kenos has an easy call here. if he calls and he and nottom both lose, he makes the money. if he calls and nottom wins, he busts in 4th. if he folds and nottom wins, he's gonna bust out in 4th anyway. so passing up these ridiculous pot odds does almost nothing to increase his chance of making the money. if the two short chip stacks were reversed, i'd like a fold.

[pooh74]

The SB coming along makes this an easy call for Kenos. NOttom needs to, in effect, beat 3players in order for Kenos to finish in 4th. Lots of upside (4x stack) little downside.

What if SB folded? Kenos might still have a call here...with the SB along for the ride its a clearcut call.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

I would never have thought about calling this (and have gladly folded in this situation in the past), but what you said makes sense (a definite leak in my game). Anyone know how to run the EV numbers on this?

Does it matter what cards Keno has to make this call? What if Keno is the short stack, still right to call?

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
The SB coming along makes this an easy call for Kenos. NOttom needs to, in effect, beat 3players in order for Kenos to finish in 4th. Lots of upside (4x stack) little downside.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nottom is 2+2, and so if you know this fact, you should expect he has a monster here quite often, and thus is quite likely to win the pot outright. The real issue is that even though he's probably pretty likely to win this pot with you in it, he's somewhat more likely to win this pot without you in it, and you'll probably finish in 4th anyway if that happens. So essentially, you're hosed either way, but calling still is better, since the only scenario I can think of where you benefit by folding instead of calling is if 2nd place also gets all in here and 1st place wins, which is going to be pretty unlikely.

[adanthar]

The call with only 2 people in the pot is a lot more clear cut than with 3 in, because the 3 people in guarantees that somebody's got at least a medium pocket (with only 2 in there's a good chance your outs are live.)

I haven't done any math with 3 in (this doesn't exactly come up often) but my gut instinct is to fold 4 way.

[schwza]

hero has to call 266 to win a pot of almost exactly 10x that.

wow, i was going to finish this post with "even in this horror situation, hero has that," but he doesn't.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc 9h 71790 6.61 997522 91.85 16696 1.54 0.073
9s Ad 232724 21.43 836588 77.03 16696 1.54 0.221
Tc Th 178857 16.47 904091 83.25 3060 0.28 0.165
Ks Kh 585941 53.95 497007 45.76 3060 0.28 0.540

in this slightly less horrific one he does though.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc 9h 116331 10.71 966892 89.03 2785 0.26 0.108
Js Ad 243975 22.47 839248 77.28 2785 0.26 0.225
Tc Th 179253 16.51 903970 83.24 2785 0.26 0.166
Ks Kh 543664 50.06 539559 49.68 2785 0.26 0.501

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
The call with only 2 people in the pot is a lot more clear cut than with 3 in, because the 3 people in guarantees that somebody's got at least a medium pocket (with only 2 in there's a good chance your outs are live.)

I haven't done any math with 3 in (this doesn't exactly come up often) but my gut instinct is to fold 4 way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand YOUR chances of winning go down 4 way, but arent you at least hedging that by throwing more cards out there to prevent nottom from winning outright (which is the one scenario, call/fold that we are trying to prevent).

The issue is whether your equity by calling 4 way goes down more than the equity you gain by preventing nottom from winning.

Thats how I see it in its most basic format and I am not saying I know the answer and am open to hearing the other variables as well.

[adanthar]

OK, I'll try to figure out why my instinct is what it is...

If an overpair is out, your equity is going to be around .1 or below, period, and you also have to finish ahead of Nott0m in the hand when you have, at most, something like 35% equity against him alone (because unless he's not paying attention this isn't 88; you're hoping it's only AK.)

If it's a middle pair like TT the call is not so bad. Four overcards and it's good. Hmmm...

still haven't really done the math but it clearly depends on these guys' standards and nott0m's. I don't like this hand at all right now; still kinda feels like a fold. But I feel dumb when one pushes AK unimproved on the flop and the other folds.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]

If an overpair is out, your equity is going to be around .1 or below, period, and you also have to finish ahead of Nott0m in the hand when you have,

[/ QUOTE ]

If nottom finishes 2nd in the hand and you finish 3rd...you finish 3rd overall. Your quoted statement doesn't seem to indicate that.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]

Does it matter what cards Keno has to make this call? What if Keno is the short stack, still right to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that I figured out the answer to my own questions...
Assuming that you are 3rd shortest stack it is better to call as long as you are not the shortest stack and calling w/ any two cards is correct b/c by getting in the hand you increase the chances of short stack losing, which increases your chances of getting ITM. Unfortunately in this case (w/ 2 people w/ KK) the short stack probably has only a 45% of losing. Comments?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If an overpair is out, your equity is going to be around .1 or below, period, and you also have to finish ahead of Nott0m in the hand when you have,

[/ QUOTE ]

If nottom finishes 2nd in the hand and you finish 3rd...you finish 3rd overall. Your quoted statement doesn't seem to indicate that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure he realizes that. That is, after all, the whole point.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If an overpair is out, your equity is going to be around .1 or below, period, and you also have to finish ahead of Nott0m in the hand when you have,

[/ QUOTE ]

If nottom finishes 2nd in the hand and you finish 3rd...you finish 3rd overall. Your quoted statement doesn't seem to indicate that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure he realizes that. That is, after all, the whole point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm misunderstanding him. It sounds to me as if he's saying he NEEDS to finish ahead of nottom.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If an overpair is out, your equity is going to be around .1 or below, period, and you also have to finish ahead of Nott0m in the hand when you have,

[/ QUOTE ]

If nottom finishes 2nd in the hand and you finish 3rd...you finish 3rd overall. Your quoted statement doesn't seem to indicate that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure he realizes that. That is, after all, the whole point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm misunderstanding him. It sounds to me as if he's saying he NEEDS to finish ahead of nottom.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you're right, as stated it is saying that...but I think he simply misstated...but that might explain why he said fold 4 handed bc i think he's wrong about that.

[adanthar]

Umm, I realized that when I made my first post in the thread but not my second /images/graemlins/blush.gif Heh. Brain cramp.

I don't know how much of a difference it makes. Maybe a bit. I'll think about it some more and get back to this thread later.

[Myst]

NOClue should be all in preflop.

Kirby should have bet more on the flop.
NoClue should have reraised all in on the flop.

Tons of mistakes by these two, except for Kenos and nott0m