Tough flop decision

[durron597]

Stars WSOP round 1 400 FPP satellite. I definitely had an image where my flop bet could be percieved as an attempt to just take the pot down. I also was certain that my opponent was capable of making a move on me - and that he had a brain on his head because he raised UTG+1 a few hands ago and folded to two allins - says he had AT. Comments on all three decision points appreciated, note that I am getting 2.5:1 to call his push.

Note that my stack is *not* large enough to fold into a seat (9 seats, something like twentyish players left). My current stacksize is a low final table stack size.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t14455)
BB (t12155)
UTG (t11450)
MP1 (t5010)
MP2 (t8785)
CO (t1425)
Button (t10933)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1600</font>, Hero calls t1400, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t3150) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t2400</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t9308</font>,

[CitricAcid13]

In this situation, I would give him credit for KK or AA. Either would be a tough situation to dig yourself out of (especially KK giving you no outs). At this point in the game, it's a pot that's tough to throw away but worth it if you respect his knowledge and play.

[BulldogMafia]

The more I think about this hand the more I feel inclined to fold it. He flat called your 6x BB raise and then re-raised you all in. I don’t believe he is making a move but actually hit his hand. I put him on trip jacks or AQo or possibly KK. Fold it and live to see another flop….call it and it is a coin flip.

[A_PLUS]

I figured you needed at least one response without a glaring innacuracy. This is a tough spot. There are a few more hands that you are ahead of now, that a thinking player will make this play with, than there are that you are behind.

Tough spot, but I think it's time to take your medicine.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
He flat called your 6x BB raise

[/ QUOTE ]

He raised my bet. There was no calling involved.

[ QUOTE ]
and then re-raised you all in. I don’t believe he is making a move but actually hit his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about the range of hands that I could have to bet the flop, being aggro myself, and then think about the range of hands that I *should* call with here (KQ is probably not in that range). Thus this is a great spot to bluff by a thinking, aggressive opponent.

[ QUOTE ]
I would I put him on trip jacks or AQo or possibly KK. Fold it and live to see another flop….

[/ QUOTE ]

All he did is make a standard blind steal preflop and then push the flop when I made a standard donkbet. I don't see how you can give him credit for such a big hand so easily. Wouldn't he be more inclined to flatcall with KK or JJJ since it's so hard for me to call this push?

[ QUOTE ]
call it and it is a coin flip.

[/ QUOTE ]

This couldn't be more wrong. I'm either way ahead or way behind, which means 50/50 is precisely what it can't be.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
This couldn't be more wrong. I'm either way ahead or way behind, which means 50/50 is precisely what it can't be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course you are right, but the funny thing is, against the range I gave your opponent, your equity was almost exactly 50%. So the realization will be, way ahead / way behind, but against my range, you are a probabilistic coin flip. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course you are right, but the funny thing is, against the range I gave your opponent, your equity was almost exactly 50%. So the realization will be, way ahead / way behind, but against my range, you are a probabilistic coin flip. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if you think I am way ahead 50% of the time and way behind 50% of the time then isn't this an easy call getting 2.5:1?

[AlcateL]

very very very difficult, at first I was thinking "how can you fold this here." Then thinking about it more I'd be more inclined too.
What hand does he do this with that you beat?
The only hand I believe he does that is QT and would he raise this much p/f, I don't know, you should though. A flush draw? Maybe but I doubt it.

Its very unlikely he has something like JT and more likely he has JQ, a set or an overpair.

This is no way clear cut but I think its a fold at the end of the day.

Edit: You fold this and you stlil have plenty of chips left to make a good attempt at the final table

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
The only hand I believe he does that is QT and would he raise this much p/f,

[/ QUOTE ]

I could see him checking to make sure he was dealt two cards before making the preflop raise. But that's about it.

[freemont]

Call, right away. You are probably ahead far more than 50% of the time in this situation. If Harrington says he gives 10% bluff chance as a minimum in every situation, this one has to be like a 20-30 percenter (I make up new words too!) Not to mention he would likely make the same play with second pair, a flush draw, straight draw, possibly a gutshot or 3rd button, underpair, etc... Also if you lose it isn't like you're dead, you still have 10BBs left.

[Sam T.]

You mentioned three decision points, so:

-Pre-flop, I'm inclined to push. His range is tremendously wide, and you're ahead of the vast majority of hands. Unless he's on AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ, even if he calls you're not in bad shape. Anything less than this he probably folds, and you add 2k to your stack. I also don't like the flat call precisely because of his wide range. Even if you hit top pair, there is no guarantee he didn't hit harder. No reason he can't have J8 here. You're giving him a free flop when you're ahead.

-Flop: Almost any bet you make is going to look like a steal, so I think you have to ask yourself what your plan is if he pushes. (I don't think this far ahead, but know I should.) If you are going to call here, I think you probably should have pushed the flop. That looks like you are making a play as well, but it would still be a tough bet for him to call unless the flop hit him pretty hard. I could, however, be convicned that pushing is a bit much.

-Another option here might be check-raise/call an all-in. It's risky against a drawlicious board, but worth thinking about.

-As for the final call...I make it, but I'm not very bright. Since he puts you on any two, his push is not a bad play - a lot of the time you probably have to fold. As it happens, you have a hand, and I believe you're ahead enough of the time to make this call.

[TexTiger]

[ QUOTE ]
All he did is make a standard blind steal preflop and then push the flop when I made a standard donkbet. I don't see how you can give him credit for such a big hand so easily. Wouldn't he be more inclined to flatcall with KK or JJJ since it's so hard for me to call this push?

[/ QUOTE ]

You mentioned your opponent is a solid/thinking player, hence he probably knows you are too. His PF play may have been a standard steal, but it could easily be JJ as well. You could put him on JJJ easily with his move as a thinking player wanting to cut the odds down for you on your straight/flush draws you might have with him having what he thinks is the best hand. Against a weaker player, he might not make this move, as so eloquently stated in TOP, "Just as you can't put a weak player on a hand, you can't put them on a thought either."

TT

[durron597]

Thanks for actually addressing both the preflop decision and the first post flop decision, I thought both of those were very interesting too.

Preflop - he might put me on a bluff here and spite call. Might. I decided not to take the risk of him calling with a medium ace, and thought there was a chance of me taking the pot away from him on the flop. I do like pushing here though, I think this is a choice between two correct plays.

First flop decision - In retrospect I think betting 2400 here is basically me saying "I am trying to trap you by donkbetting" and taking advantage of my loose image to stack him. What I am afraid of is the flat call - I expect him to think that I will bluff off the rest of my chips if he has a strong hand, thus the reraise is not as strong a move as a call. Calling is the new raising.

When he does push, I agree with your analysis completely.

[AlcateL]

Fair point, not sure if my head is screwed on, and I see your point about it being a good flop to make a move on because you SHOULDN'T call with KQ here in theory, but there is a reason for that. If you assume he has some kind of hand he's almost always ahead of you here, i think ist a fold.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
If you assume he has some kind of hand he's almost always ahead of you here, i think ist a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, what an assumption to make.

Define some kind of hand. He probably has at least one pair, but is it better than TP2K?

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, if you think I am way ahead 50% of the time and way behind 50% of the time then isn't this an easy call getting 2.5:1?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think so yes, but my range was pretty wide, and the fact that this is a satelite (increasing the EV of survival) makes it a much tougher call.

[adanthar]

In this situation, I would push all in PF and expect him to fold the vast majority of time, including some hands I lose to.

Having called, I'm gonna checkraise this because in a sat close to the bubble I don't really want any sort of draw to push and you just know he will...oh well, you still have a call here.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Having called, I'm gonna checkraise this because in a sat close to the bubble I don't really want any sort of draw to push and you just know he will...oh well, you still have a call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you check and he pushes outright, what's your action? If he checks behind and the turn is a card like the 9/images/graemlins/club.gif what do you do?

[locutus2002]

I think its a fold.

I think its unlikely that villain is making this move with air, as hero has called from SB, and leads out.

I count about 35 hands in which your in trouble (AQ-8, AA-6, KK-3, 9T-16, JJ-2) and about 15 hands where your about even like JTc (45% dog). This puts you overall about 25% in the hand and you need to get 3:1 in the pot to make it a CEV call. Its probably CEV--, but even if he could make this move with a more speculative hand, and it were CEV++, I would not make the call because your condition is still good if you fold with 25XBB, and the tournament has the most flat payout structure.

[locutus2002]

Preflop: I don't like a push. 27XBB is too much of an overbet. I might be inclined to call pairs down to 9, and aj++ if I were villain, especially if hero is capable of putting a move on.
I wouldn't pop him back because 4XBB looks like alot for a steal, and any raise is going to leave villain pot committed ATF. I call.

ATF: I like your T2400 bet: solid, and for information. If you check I think villain can push with a much wider range of hands. I doubt villain is calling here, its either push or fold: he either has a hand and doesn't want a draw, or has a draw and doesn't want to make another decision at the turn.

[durron597]

Results: I tanked forever and decided that I wasn't totally crippled if I called an lost, and that he really didn't need to have much to do this, and that if he had a really strong hand he probably would have called and tried to extract more chips out of me. So I called. I got three separate "Wow, great call"s, I wasn't sure if they were sarcastic or not.

After this pot I basically only stole blinds for the next 60 hands except for one pot where I busted a player with 8k chips who raised on the button and I came over the top in the BB with KK. I finished the tournament with 42,000 chips and in second place.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t14455)
BB (t12155)
UTG (t11450)
MP1 (t5010)
MP2 (t8785)
CO (t1425)
Button (t10933)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1600</font>, Hero calls t1400, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t3150) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t2400</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t9308</font>, Hero calls t6908.

Turn: (t21766) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t21766) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t21766

Results:
Hero has Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (one pair, queens).
Button has A/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins t21766.

[Lloyd]

Especially given you're read of him and how you've been playing, I'd put him on a pretty wide range of hands: AA-JJ, AK-AT, KQ-KT, QJ-QT, JT. I could easily see him making this move with a draw or middle pair / draw. He could be bluffing as well. But just against that range you're a 55/45 dog which makes the call a no-brainer.

What about a check-raise line? If you checked he'd probably be the one making a pot size bet and you could put him all-in. It's tough for you to just lead out with a push because that looks like an overbet draw. But a check-raise seems pretty strong.

And don't forget, even if you lose you've got 3500 left. While shortstacked it's certainly enough to come back if you play well and catch some cards.

On the flop call, I certainly don't mind it. He could be on a blind steal and calling with KQ is safe. I would be inclined to push pre-flop if he had tried to blind steal in the past. You've got to think against the range of hands he could be raising with you're ahead. But given that you called, what better flop are you looking for to get all your chips in the middle. Certainly you're not waiting for trips or a two pair and top pair good kicker with a backdoor straight draw is a pretty strong holding.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
What about a check-raise line? If you checked he'd probably be the one making a pot size bet and you could put him all-in. It's tough for you to just lead out with a push because that looks like an overbet draw. But a check-raise seems pretty strong.

[/ QUOTE ]

My problem with a check-raise line is, what do I do if he openpushes or checks behind and a bad card hits the turn?

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What about a check-raise line? If you checked he'd probably be the one making a pot size bet and you could put him all-in. It's tough for you to just lead out with a push because that looks like an overbet draw. But a check-raise seems pretty strong.

[/ QUOTE ]

My problem with a check-raise line is, what do I do if he openpushes or checks behind and a bad card hits the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]
If he open pushes it's not much different of a decision than if you bet and he pushes. Yes, the odds are a bit worse but I'd still put him on the same range of hands possibly with a greater likelihood of a bluff or weaker holding. You'd still have odds to call.

If he checks behind, well you're getting some good information. What strong hand could he have and not make some type of bet on the flop with so many draws? Take a look at the turn and act from there. And if it's a scary card for you, it might be a scary card for him and go check-check. If he pushes, I'm more inclined to narrow the range and fold. But again, you've got good information from the check and the card to come might have actually improved your hand.

[Lloyd]

I'm glad this wasn't a bad beat story, or one where in hindsight you made a bad decision. Trust your instincts. You thought about this hand, put him on a range, and made the right call. You were rewarded by your decision. Nice job. Now start preparing for the ME!!!

[adanthar]

If I CR'd this I would be pushing.

[ QUOTE ]
My problem with a check-raise line is, what do I do if he openpushes or checks behind and a bad card hits the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

If the turn card is the 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif, okay, he can buy the pot. If it's reasonably better, I think I have the best hand now so bet him off it since it's a sat. If he open pushes, do some math.