Can I bet this as a bluff?

[Schneids]

Sorry, opponent is unknown. Usually they aren't.

I raise JT utg 5 handed 50-100. SB 3 bets, we're HU.

AKQ flop. Opponent checks, I bet, opponent calls. I'm pretty sure opponent has a pocket pair under the board.

Turn Ace. Opponent checks, I bet, opponent calls. I'm pretty sure opponent has a pocket pair under the board.

River Ace. Opponent checks. I'm still pretty sure opponent has pocket pair under the board.

[I Play 2 Ski]

wow! against an unknown I would guess not. Even against most known players do you think the would fold small full for one bet on the river enough to make that bet profitable?

[mooks]

bet and fold to a raise

[ALL1N]

I generally play a less erratic (or extravagent, whatever the word) game against an unknown, as I'm sure we all do. And I think it's fair to assume good, bad and awful players do the same, since nobody likes giving excessive action to a nit or getting bluffed out of a pot by a maniac. So if he's unknown to you, you're probably unknown to him, and I can't imagine him taking a pair to the river without the intention of showing down.

[Alobar]

JT utg?

If hes called down all this way with a underpair, hes not now suddenly folding it, espeically when so many aces are on board. What is he going to call you with that you beat? Check behinds dont get much easier than this IMO

edited to add: I just read the post title. Half of what I said still makes sense tho /images/graemlins/smile.gif Hes not folding

[Nikla]

I'd bet.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think he folds?


If you take a typical small blind, with typical 3 bet standards, I think after his flop and turn play we can limit down to 88-JJ, and since people are retarded, maybe a small chance for something like KJs or a KQs. But I think a smaller PP is much more likely. But in that scenerio, he is obviously checking to save himself bets if hes behind, but intending to go to showdown. You can make a case for JJ or TT calling in hopes of a gutshot, but since you have 1 each of these cards, the likely hood of those hands is cut in half, and in that half as likely scenerio the villian still called the turn getting only 5.5-1, hes now folding the river getting 7.5-1 when its even that much more likely hero doesnt hold an ace, thus eliminating more hands villian is afraid of?

I dont play the 50/100 so maybe your typical unkown will call the turn incorrectly but still fold the river when bet at again, but im doubtful

[beerbandit]

i like the bet --- and obviously you can fold to the raise

i def think this is one of the situatios that you could get a better hand to fold with a bet


cheers

[BottlesOf]

Some people say bet and you can easily fold to a raise? I really don't think you're getting c/rd here. If your read is right and it seems logical, there's no real threat of a raise. If he has a Q or something, is he suddenly gonna fall in love and c/r? Doubtful. I think it's a pure bluff question, with an outside chance of him folding something weak.

I don't think a bet is worthwhile against an unkown. I also have no idea what an unknown/averag 50/100 SH player is like.

[fnord_too]

As I count it, you are getting 6:1 on your bluff. Do you think he mucks an underpair 17% of the time? Kind of hard to imagine someone calling the flop and turn on that board then suddenly folding here. What does the river change from his perpective? The only times he is behind on the river is if he was behind on the flop and turn (assuming he has an underpair).

[sthief09]

I don't see him paying off with a pair under the board. it's one thing for him to chase a gut shot and pocket pair under the board, but it's another thing for him to call when he's so "obviously" beat

[Luv2DriveTT]

I am not a short handed expert, and I don't spend nearly enough time in this forum, but the thread was pointed out to me by a friend. Its such an interesting one considering the responses that I'd like to chime in - I think the best play is to check. Betting here is just wasted, most players won't call a river bet unless they have at a minimum deuces for a house - which of course beat your hand.

You are not going to get anyone with a pair to lay down at all... betting is just pointless spewing.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[StellarWind]

He just improved. Fine time for him to fold.

I don't see it. If he's dumb enough to chase JJ/TT I doubt he's tossing it now. Betting is not a percentage play.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
He just improved. Fine time for him to fold.

I don't see it. If he's dumb enough to chase JJ/TT I doubt he's tossing it now. Betting is not a percentage play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is true. Players will often call the flop and turn with JJ/TT because there's some chance of them being good and some chance of them improving. Although he did "improve", relatively he didn't unless schneids has exactly JT and he knows this, when schneids bets the river again it's an obvious value bet because he'd check behind with his weaker hands, so he can fold.

The thing is that a lot of people in this thread are just like "if he called this far with a pair then he won't fold the river" but at higher levels that may not be true because it's easy to recognise that players frequently bet-bet-check and a river bet is really unlikely to be a bluff here.

Of course, if the opponent is a complete donk this all goes out the window, and as we don't know whether he is, checking might be the right play. It probably depends on the ratio of thinking players:donks at 50/100, and I have no idea what this is.

[MAxx]

my gut tells me that it is much more likely for someone that is loose enough to go the river with an under pp on that board to call the river as well than decide it is time to make a "good fold".

i would want somekind of read to make this bluff. six to one on your bluff may be a good prop vs some known players, but i dont particularly think so vs an unknown that 3bet pf and has called this board on flop and turn already.

[MEbenhoe]

You're getting 6.5:1 on your bluff here so if Villian folds 13.33% of the time this is breakeven in terms of value. However, lets say that you estimate this as being a marginal +EV or -EV bet. No one has mentioned what effect showing down JT in this situation will have on the future play of hands. If you bet this hand here and show down a loser it gives you freedom to value bet more liberally on the river in future hands as your opponents will start to call you down with lesser hands, but at the same time it may limit your ability to bluff further on in this game. So given the feel of this game and what you want to be able to set yourself up to do in later hands should likely have a large impact on your decision of whether to check behind or bluff at the pot here.

[etizzle]

I think the key thing at work here is that this is not really the type of board that would ever be bluffed at 3 times.

A decent player should fairly often lay down an underpair in spots like this. It sure doesn't look like the running aces should have changed anything, so the underpair has to think that Shneids thinks he's not folding, if that makes sense.

A bet could work here.

[wrto4556]

A good player would have folded earlier. Obviously, he's not a good player, so he's probably calling the river.

[MAxx]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is that a lot of people in this thread are just like "if he called this far with a pair then he won't fold the river" but at higher levels that may not be true because it's easy to recognise that players frequently bet-bet-check and a river bet is really unlikely to be a bluff here.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing to me is that a player that calls the turn with TT or JJ here is likely a donk. Either that or they don't have much respect for Scheinds. Calling a turn bet here with TT or JJ is bad... and therefore, this player is likely to make a lessor bad choice and call again on the RIva.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He just improved. Fine time for him to fold.

I don't see it. If he's dumb enough to chase JJ/TT I doubt he's tossing it now. Betting is not a percentage play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is true. Players will often call the flop and turn with JJ/TT because there's some chance of them being good and some chance of them improving. Although he did "improve", relatively he didn't unless schneids has exactly JT and he knows this, when schneids bets the river again it's an obvious value bet because he'd check behind with his weaker hands, so he can fold.

The thing is that a lot of people in this thread are just like "if he called this far with a pair then he won't fold the river" but at higher levels that may not be true because it's easy to recognise that players frequently bet-bet-check and a river bet is really unlikely to be a bluff here.

Of course, if the opponent is a complete donk this all goes out the window, and as we don't know whether he is, checking might be the right play. It probably depends on the ratio of thinking players:donks at 50/100, and I have no idea what this is.

[/ QUOTE ]

again JJ and TT are half as likely because we hold JT. Not only did villian "improve" on the river, it helps him by the fact hes prolly pretty sure schneids hasnt been betting an Ace the whole way. Its not like schneids 3 bet preflop either, so villian has to put schneids on a much wider range of hands here, and since there has been no action besides check/bet and the 3rd ace is going to make villian more likely to think schneids has been "bluffing" the whole way anyway, hes even that much more likely to call. I just cant for the life of me imagine villian folding here 1 in 6 given the way hes played the hand.

[arkady]

you know what...you don't have a choice here. You are just not going to win this pot if its checked through or much less if he bets. On the other hand if he called the turn then the river just helps him. So heh....you have to bet, but you are getting called a lot. unless he folds JT /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
As I count it, you are getting 6:1 on your bluff. Do you think he mucks an underpair 17% of the time? Kind of hard to imagine someone calling the flop and turn on that board then suddenly folding here. What does the river change from his perpective? The only times he is behind on the river is if he was behind on the flop and turn (assuming he has an underpair).

[/ QUOTE ]

Bleh, a later post clued me in that I count bad. 13:2 != 6:1. I still don't see an underpair folding if they called this far enough to justify bluffing.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The thing is that a lot of people in this thread are just like "if he called this far with a pair then he won't fold the river" but at higher levels that may not be true because it's easy to recognise that players frequently bet-bet-check and a river bet is really unlikely to be a bluff here.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing to me is that a player that calls the turn with TT or JJ here is likely a donk. Either that or they don't have much respect for Scheinds. Calling a turn bet here with TT or JJ is bad... and therefore, this player is likely to make a lessor bad choice and call again on the RIva.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point.

[Stormwolf]

you also have to consider % of accuracy of your read

[BabyJesus]

No reason to bet here. If he's calling you down with an under pair, he's going to call you on the river if he's calling you on the flop and turn. You have 0% fold equity here against a pocket pair.

The ONLY hand I could see folding here is maybe JJ or TT that was trying to hit the straight. Any other pair 99-22 decided to call you down from the beginning unless a J or T showed up. The river didn't change anything for them if that is the case. You won't get c/r here by very many hands. But you're getting called by any almost every pair.

An underpair isn't suddenly going to get wise that he's beat when the flop is AKQ then more aces come off the board.

Check behind, it's not even close.

[Girchuck]

Could he also have QJ?

[bicyclekick]

Don't bet the river. Not gonna do any good.

[turnipmonster]

I am not sure that by calling the turn he is just calling to for a 2-6 outer and plans on folding a full house on the river.

[I Play 2 Ski]

[ QUOTE ]
you know what...you don't have a choice here. You are just not going to win this pot if its checked through or much less if he bets. On the other hand if he called the turn then the river just helps him. So heh....you have to bet, but you are getting called a lot. unless he folds JT /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

unfortunately, you are getting called more times than makes this bet profitable against an unknown player.

[Rudbaeck]

I propose a simple solution: Bet once every 7.5 times you are in this situation. (Which by our new gold standard would be anytime you're in this situation and it's less than or exactly 8 seconds past the minute.)

[marand]

Unless he is a very specific type of player who likes to call all the way to the river and then fold (very very uncommon) I think the river bet is very bad.

He would have folded without a pair or at least a straight draw if he was very very loose. You cannot get him to fold the pair (full house) on the river and you can never get paid off by a worse hand.

[TazQ]

Meh, I check.

I think when the flop came he decided to call down no matter what. I'd only bet when I know the opponent to be a good player and can adjust his read during the hand. Like someone who can call the flop and turn with ace high but fold the river to a bet.