Good spot to steal the pot? (200$ NL 6-max)

[Kjell201]

Only played 15ish hands at the table and no stats on them, but overall the whole table seems to like to hang along until the river but fold there if they dont hit anything good.

Prima 200$ NL. 6-max

Dealt to Kjell201: 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif

PreFlop
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puttoputto : Posts small blind 1.00
Kjell201 : Posts big blind 2.00
alfatron : Calls for 2.00
Addeman : Folds
loveHT : Raises for 4.00
puttoputto : Calls for 3.00
Kjell201 : Calls for 2.00
alfatron : Calls for 2.00

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Flop: 16$, 4 players
T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
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puttoputto : Checks
Kjell201 : Checks
alfatron : Checks
loveHT : Bets 4.00
puttoputto : Calls for 4.00
Kjell201 : Calls for 4.00
alfatron : Calls for 4.00

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Turn: 32$, 4 players
3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
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puttoputto : Checks
Kjell201 : Checks
alfatron : Checks
loveHT : Checks

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River: 32$, 4 players
6/images/graemlins/club.gif
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puttoputto : Checks
Kjell201 : ???


Good spot to try and steal the pot? preflop raiser doesnt seem to like his hand. sb checks again so he probably has nothing and rivercard is a total blank. The only guy who might have a hand is the guy to my left (alfatron) if he maybe checked turn to checkraise.

If you decide to bluff, how much, and why?
Also if you change anything else preflop (fold?), flop (bet out) and turn and how you respond to different actions, and why.

Thanks

[DoomSlice]

I think you need to set up the bluff with a flop bet or check-raise. The way you played it here I can definately see a weak 10 calling a river bet.

[Kjell201]

Is betting out/checkraising the flop really a wise idea with my read on the other players as "likes to call to the river, but fold there unless they have a hand"?

If you checkraise flop, and get reraised by preflop raiser, how do you continue? flop,turn and river

If you checkraise and get two callers, how do you play the turn? If you bet turn and get two callers again, how do you play the river?

At a tight table I can agree with leading out/checkraising but with these loose callers playing a draw aggressively can get me in alot of trouble/hard decisions, no?

[fuzzbox]

alfatron almost certainly has a J (what else will he check call the flop with after a bet and a call ?).
He went for the turn checkraise just like a good little lamb.

I check/fold the flop, because I hate to hit my Q and get action from alfatron with QJ/JT etc

[Kjell201]

[ QUOTE ]
alfatron almost certainly has a J (what else will he check call the flop with after a bet and a call ?).

[/ QUOTE ]

My description of the players are that they are loose and like to hang along until the river. Since were not giving him credit for being a good player there is a LOT of hands he could have that he calls the flop with but folds the river with.
KQ, K9, Q9, Q8, Ax, 99-22, all come to mind. And any hand containing a T he'd play the flop like that and might fold a bluff depending on its size.


Seems people aren't taking the reads much into consideration, and in this hand I'd say they are very important.
Two replies think I should checkraise the flop with an OESD against people that arent likely to fold at all. That can't be correct can it?

[Ghazban]

Stealing with 3 other people seeing the river is almost impossible. I don't trust the conclusion that "the whole table seems to like to hang along until the river but fold there if they dont hit anything good" when you've only got 15 hands with them.

[swolfe]

not at all. one of those other 3 people still in the hand has a J and will call.

[fuzzbox]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
alfatron almost certainly has a J (what else will he check call the flop with after a bet and a call ?).

[/ QUOTE ]

My description of the players are that they are loose and like to hang along until the river. Since were not giving him credit for being a good player there is a LOT of hands he could have that he calls the flop with but folds the river with.
KQ, K9, Q9, Q8, Ax, 99-22, all come to mind. And any hand containing a T he'd play the flop like that and might fold a bluff depending on its size.


Seems people aren't taking the reads much into consideration, and in this hand I'd say they are very important.
Two replies think I should checkraise the flop with an OESD against people that arent likely to fold at all. That can't be correct can it?

[/ QUOTE ]

On one hand you say they call on the flop and turn with any old pair, but on the other you say they will fold anything other than a J or TT on the river. I dont know of too many players who play like that. If they like their pair, then they play it to the death.

15 hands aint enough to decide that they call with crappy pairs on flops but fold em on rivers. I personally wouldnt bluff this spot - but you go right ahead.

[Kjell201]

[ QUOTE ]

On one hand you say they call on the flop and turn with any old pair, but on the other you say they will fold anything other than a J or TT on the river. I dont know of too many players who play like that. If they like their pair, then they play it to the death.

[/ QUOTE ]
The flop bet was 1/4th of the pot so the other players calling tells us nothing about their hands. The turn check gives us no information about ep and the guy to my left, but preflop raiser pretty much gives up, so we can assume that he's not very likely to have anything.
Knowing that, ep again check the river so its pretty safe to assume he also has nothing.
The only guy that with any logic could have a hand is the guy to my left.
With him on a possible range of KQ,K9,Q9,Q8,Ax (folding),99-22 (might call) and AT,AJ,KJ,QJ,KT (raising or calling), I think theres a case to be made for bluffing.
Say I bet around 10$ I only have to get them to fold 25% of the time. With the range above on the guy to my left the EV is huge, but we have to consider that pfraiser and ep might call sometimes.
I still think it's +EV.

[ QUOTE ]
not at all. one of those other 3 people still in the hand has a J and will call.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
alfatron almost certainly has a J (what else will he check call the flop with after a bet and a call ?).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this AT ALL. Could you explain why he would "almost certainly" have a J when I say they would call that small pot bet, and check turn with any A, any gutshot or other draw and any pair?

[MarkL444]

no

[DoomSlice]

Waiting until the river to bluff at the pot seems like... well... a bluff. Show some aggression somewhere if you are going to make a bluff like this.

Is someone really going to 3-bet you without a J? If you get reraised you can easily fold. Hopefully a check-raise will get one or two to fold and trap some money in the pot so that a river bluff will show some more profit.