I keep screwing up md/tpnk out of the blinds

[damaniac]

This is a good-sized leak (I think), since it seems to happen so much and, since these are small pots, if this type of thing is a mistake, it is bigger (ie I have less overlay to cover myself) than a lot mistakes I might make in bigger pots.

This hand is just an example. Small pot, but not tiny (5 sb's when player on end bets). Raggedy flop, sometimes 1 face card, more often doing this with none. I'll flop top pair, or middle pair, or something like that, and check to view the action. Checked to the button or last to act who bets. I raise. In this case, the player is TAGish, not sure about much else except, in talking to him briefly, he is a Notre Dame fan who appears to be either 12 years old or just really really stupid, which isn't relevant to the hand.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

River: (6.16 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

Final Pot: 8.16 BB

So the point is, catching my T aside, he had a Q. The last like 6 times I've done this, they've had tp decent kicker, and I wind up spewing money. Yet the type of players who I check-raise these flops on are TAG/LAGy enough to bet overcards or a maybe a weak draw or baby pp in these situations most of the time (I often would), which would make my play better.

So do you all do this reasonably often, when the flop and players seem right for it, or should I just be chucking these all the time? Is this a marginally profitable play that I've had bad luck with, or does it suck?

[eric5148]

I would've folded that in a second. But I'm weak tight postflop, as far as 2+2ers go.

[damaniac]

In general, what type of situation will you checkraise? Do you need top pair? Backdoor draws? I think that always folding raggedy flops with a decent pair against players who have shown no strength and are capable of folding would be passing up some EV, but I need to show better judgement on when to do this (ie, what types of flops, what kinds of draws I may have, etc), as well as when betting out would be a good option.

[eric5148]

I would want a few more outs, in case the bettor has what he's representing. Like an overcard kicker, ISD, BDFD.

[ArturiusX]

I don't mind this play against general passives.

[macdona1]

your second pair 7, is not strong enough to check-raise. To check-raise a flop like that you need something like 10 10 or JJ. The only possible thing that someone could bet is a Q, and if they are betting the 7 you are probly against A7, which would be the only probable hand for that situation. Just lead and see what happens.

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
The only possible thing that someone could bet is a Q.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true. Many people may bet with nothing when checked to in last position. Also, someone with a hand like Ah4h has a legitimate reason to bet if checked to here.

[ QUOTE ]
Just lead and see what happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the advice though.

[damaniac]

I know I don't have a good handle on this type of situation, that's why I'm asking, but this

[ QUOTE ]
The only possible thing that someone could bet is a Q, and if they are betting the 7 you are probly against A7

[/ QUOTE ]

isn't even close to remotely true. Against an uber-tight passive rock, yes. Against an unknown on the Party 3/6, they will bet a lot more than that.

[sweetjazz]

You also should be considering how likely it is that MP1 and MP3 will fold to your check raise. If they are the types of players who will call two cold with something like A9, or K6, or 86, this makes the hand trickier to play. Note that even though they are sometimes calling with insufficient odds, you are not going to feel good about betting into two or more players on the turn.

But if the CO is likely to betting a wide range of hands here (a reasonable assumption) and you will know how to handle a call by MP1 and/or MP3, then I like it. You also have a (weak) draw to improve to a better hand when you are behind.

To me, it seems like a pretty borderline play, but probably slightly +EV. Don't be frustrated by short-term results; sometimes they will have TPGK here, but often they will not.

[damaniac]

Yeah that makes a lot of sense. I'm not check-raising if a donk or two are likely to cold-call with very many hands because, like you said, even if I am ahead, it's going to be pretty tough to play this on later streets OOP with such a weak hand (I'd probably quit if called in two spots, and often in one spot, depending).

I also had some time to think, and doing this with pairs that are less likely to be outdrawn if I am good (for example, a pair of nines here would be better than 7's, both because bettor in an unraised pot could have something like 88, and because he or someone else has fewer overcards to hit if they call me. And backdoor draws are nice too.

Finally, since, as you mention, this is probably a pretty marignal +EV situation (in general, not this particular one), shortterm results could add bigtime to my swings, so I could in general be playing these well but show a loss for awhile. (I am right that pushing small edges adds to your variance, or do I totally not get that?)

[sweetjazz]

[ QUOTE ]
(I am right that pushing small edges adds to your variance, or do I totally not get that?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically, any time you are putting in bets, you are adding to your variance. You are increasing the amount you can win and the amount you can lose. If you always folded T7 in this spot, you'd always 0.5 BB for the hand. This will cause a small contribution to your variance (since you normally win about 0.02 BB per hand or thereabotus). But once you raise, you're going to lose either *at least* 1.5 BB or win *at least* 4 BB. So your result is going to contribute more to your variance, no matter what happens.

Similarly, playing AA adds a LOT to your variance, because you typically either win or lose a very big pot (at least if the table is not tight passive). Of course, you wouldn't forego the huge edge you have with AA to decrease your variance.

Even when your expectation is much smaller, it's probably not worth worrying about the fact that playing aggressively is going to add to your variance. To be successful one needs a pretty high variance anyway, so the best thing to do is to make sure you have an adequate bankroll and then just brace yourself for the inevitable swinginess of the game.

Or at least that's how I try to approach it. /images/graemlins/smile.gif