Commerce 20-40

[stankybank]

Full table. UTG raises to 100. I'm in MP w/ QQ and make it 400 straight. UTG has been raising like this couple times and folding flops that contain Aces and Kings so I put him on some smallish pocket or suited connector. Guy to my left who is wearing a suit and seems like he's been playing poker for a long time calls behind me. He is a true LAG player. Folded around to original raiser who calls.

3 to flop for ~1260 pot. UTG has arounf 2.5K. I got 10K. LAG got me covered. Probably sitting w/ 15K or so. He just won a big pot when he rivered a straight against two pair.

Flop is 973r. UTG checks, I bet 1000. LAG raises to 2500. UTG folds.

What's my plan?

[deadmoney98]

Simple, push or fold. A call essentially forces you to try to get the hand to showdown as cheaply as possible while out of position. If your read is correct and he is a LAG, a re-raise would seem to be in order.

[riverboatking]

is he lag preflop or postflop? what kinds of hands has he shown down?

usually in this case you'll see AA as most players won't smooth call w/KK in this spot (since the action probably won't be heads up, as the third player will now be getting good odds for an overcall preflop).

this is a time where a read is critical and you probably won't get very much helpful insight from posting the hand other then it comes down to knowing your opponent.

[diddle]

[ QUOTE ]
What's my plan?

[/ QUOTE ]

cry.

I fold here barring a read.

[fsuplayer]

i agree with both of the posts directly above mine.

esp. the crying part.

[mythrilfox]

If he's bluffing, don't we want him to continue bluffing?

Does villain know you are likely to lay down here?

Do you think it's possible villain's plan for this hand was to call preflop and raise any (or most) flops?

[Jeffage]

If you just call that flop, you are going to be faced with a LARGE turn bet almost everytime. What do you do when the turn rags, you check and he bets 5 grand? It's either all going in on the flop b/c you think you're ahead or the hand must be discarded.

Jeff

[Jester999]

As usual, I'm just asking questions in this forum...:)

[ QUOTE ]
UTG has been raising like this couple times and folding flops that contain Aces and Kings so I put him on some smallish pocket or suited connector. Guy to my left who is wearing a suit and seems like he's been playing poker for a long time calls behind me.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're descriptions are accurate, wouldn't it make sense that the LAG behind you is also aware of UTGs tendencies? If you guys were heads up wouldn't he seem more likely to be making a move on you here? It seems as if UTG almost provides cover and might make the decision a bit clearer. True?

[ShawnHoo]

Assuming that Suit Guy has AA, why would he raise us here as opposed to waiting for the turn?

(I don't play anything near this high -- just trying to learn.)

[MarkL444]

stupid question:

would any of you guys just check to the lag here? i of course dont know how aggressive he is but if he bets here you could save a lot when UTG is c/r'ing. plus it seems to me that when you bet here you pretty much have to take it down right here or else youre put in a bind.

[SpaceAce]

I do not like it when extremely LAG opponents suddenly start smooth-calling. You said this guy seems like he's been playing poker for a long time. To me, that sounds like you're implying this fellow could be pretty crafty. I think you have too much money in your stack and too much chance of being behind to continue with this hand. I would expect to be shown AA here pretty often.

SpaceAce

[FourKing Hell]

From his perspective.. he has to call 4% of your stack, making it 'correct' to try to make a play at you. But would he call with crap here? Unlikely, unless he's sure he can take the pot away no matter what if you miss. He still has UTG to worry about. Since you reraised, ÜTG would likely be sandbagging almost every flop that hits him, he has the perfect stack size for that. You bet pot, you're committed unless you have AK. This means the LAG can't confidently put a play on you.

I say he's got a hand this time and you're looking at TT-AA or a set. He'll abandon TT, JJ and maybe QQ.

If you move in and he calls, your equity will be a little less than 9% vs a set or a higher pair. So you get about 2K.

If he folds, you get the 9K you have left plus ~1260, your bet and his 2500. That makes ~13760

If you fold, you get 9K.

If he folds you gain 5K. If he calls you lose 7. Clearly, you can't move in vs. the range of hands I'm guessing. He would have to be making a play at you a significant part of the time, and even then it's a marginal situation. Tha alternative, calling, puts you in no better spot. He still won't bet his JJ/TT, might improve, and might bet you off a river card that would have helped you.

I fold.

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming that Suit Guy has AA, why would he raise us here as opposed to waiting for the turn?

(I don't play anything near this high -- just trying to learn.)

[/ QUOTE ]

LAGs make money by betting. I think he's more likely to get paid off by a variety of hands by coming out raising then smooth-calling two raises pre-flop, smooth-calling a big flop bet then suddenly waking up on the turn.

SpaceAce

[Leptyne]

I haven't seen 86s mentioned as a possible holding. I started to say I see a lot of this, but actually I only see it when it hits. In any case he clearly has one on three hands: a bigger pair, a set, or a straight draw. Make that four, because he could also have a lower pair and missed. The straight draw comes to mind because you mentioned that he just hung in there to catch one on the river for a big pot. The flop is where the big decision is made. The turn and the river are pretty standard after you make up your mind. When in doubt go with your first impression, your gut. Don't change your mind. Folding is clearly a choice that's hard to argue with. You're the one that's there and it's your call. If you're going to continue with the hand I would raise, probably $2500, then push the turn if a blank hits, or your Q hits.

[stankybank]

I pushed, he called after a minute.

He had 8Ts. Rivered a straight.

Turn was a 2. Should I have just called and pushed the turn instead? He didn't have a flush draw on the turn.

[Deftoner]

Suprised you pushed, good read. I figured him for a set. Played it well, got unlucky..bummer.

[kagame]

you didnt tell us the guy was absolutely awful!

i was considering mentioning that a decent player might fold KK here if you went all in depending on your image...

good grief nevermind!

i played the 10/20 at commerce two weeks ago, wild and crazy, wish I had the roll!