Very Standard Fold

[Jason Strasser]

This is very standard yet I bet a vast majority of you will never make this fold.

Four handed. Blinds 250/500. You are big stack with a little over 5k. You are the BB. UTG with a little over 2k folds, button with a little over 2k folds, SB goes all in and its one more chip for you to call and you have any two cards.

-Jason

assume regular party 200 sng

[Sabrazack]

At an extremely tight and passive table i might actually fold this, but on a standard 10+1 table, which is what i currently play, there is no way im folding. If SB doubles up here through your fold he will be up to 1k and the mid stacks dont't have enough chips to confortably wait him out.

[1C5]

I am proud to say I have made that fold before.

[LeVoodoo]

Keeping the bubble alive is a topic that is often discussed on this forum and i wouldn't be surprised at all if most actually did fold in this case. I even read a while back that someone folded AA in a similar situation.

[The Yugoslavian]

They should be capable of folding here....this has been gone over on this board like a bajillion times.

No00oob! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Yugoslav
Who thinks the more interesting question is how small does UTG's stack have to be for a fold here to not be a good idea...

[Jason Strasser]

I never see people make this fold in a 200 sng.

[tigerite]

It's a fold, and it's obvious why, you only have to look at the relative positions.

[astarck]

Why would you fold? For 1 chip more you can have the chance of knocking him out and being itm. If you fold he has 100% chance of getting 500 of your chips. If you call he has at best 80% (and more likely 50%ish) chance of getting 501 of your chips?

Maybe I'm off and/or this is way over my head, but I can see no reason at all as to why you should ever fold any hand for 1 more chip...especially when you have half the chips on the table.

[LeVoodoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I'm off and/or this is way over my head, but I can see no reason at all as to why you should ever fold any hand for 1 more chip...especially when you have half the chips on the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold and push any two next hand to take the blinds from the tight medium stacks.

[astarck]

[ QUOTE ]
Keeping the bubble alive

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't think of that...heh.

[astarck]

Yeah, it is easy to see why now. Just took that one key phrase.

[astarck]

I realize this is 3 posts in a row...but oh well.

What if you had a good hand?

What if you weren't big stack?

[BDarch]

[ QUOTE ]
I realize this is 3 posts in a row...but oh well.

What if you had a good hand?

What if you weren't big stack?

[/ QUOTE ]

you fold with no matter what hand you have and if you had a smaller stack you would call.

[J-Lo]

your hand doesn't matter, it's a call not matter what or fold no matter what kind of scenario for only 1 more chip.

If you are one of the medium stacks, it's an easy call, because your goal is to get ITM now, AND THEN start gambling for 1st. RIGHT GUYS?

[adanthar]

To make this fold I would have to know for sure that UTG and MP were both not willing to spite call with AT. They have a few too many chips and you have a few too little to really do this comfortably without that.

But no, nobody folds this in most games regardless, even when they really should.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
I never see people make this fold in a 200 sng.

[/ QUOTE ]

be thankful....in over 1500 sngs (granted they were all at the 33s and below) i have only seen one person besides myself play the bubble properly and that was 2+2er maulik.

[Freudian]

I never fold a good hand here, but I will fold a very poor one.

I think people are often wanting to get fancy here, believing they can make much more money by going after the other two stacks than they make by knocking out the SB for his 500 chips+your 250. The problem is this: the two other stacks aren't going to fold everything when they have 4xBB. So suddenly after pushing any two into the medium stacks and have them call with KJ to beat you (and a call is even more likely by you screaming out you want to keep the bubble alive by making an absurd fold), you are down to 3k while fourhanded instead of being ITM with 60% of the chips.

[durron597]

Jason, this is not exactly the same situation, but what do you think of the check behind on the river here? (For similar reasons). 14 players, 3 pay, 2+2 Atlantic Trout SnG. The SB is left with less than 6 BB.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t9185)
Button (t2275)
SB (t3025)
BB (t2070)
UTG (t4445)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t450</font>, Hero calls t450, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls t375, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t1500) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t300</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1000</font>, SB calls t700.

Turn: (t3500) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t700</font>, SB calls t700.

River: (t4900) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: t4900

[FieryJustice]

I wish you wouldnt post such things.

[raptor517]

quit making people better. however, an argument can be made about this situation, even though you are making the play to keep pwning the bubble. it may not be worth sacrificing the 751 chips in the pot for that extra bubble edge if the players you are up against dont play a correct calling game on the bubble. i think its very close here, and an argument can be made either way. holla

[microbet]

Small stack now has 1000 chips. The medium stacks only have 2000 chips. The big stack just announced that he is going to push with absolutely any two.

The medium stacks will now be correct in opening up their calling standards a lot.

[Jason Strasser]

Durron,

Vs. a decent crop of players and such, I think I'd do whatever I can to take all of the villain's chips in this hand. I'd probably put him on the three step plan to having no chips on the flop. (bet flop turn river). I doubt you can really destroy people on the bubble with the small stack around because blinds arent so big. There are quite a few chips here you can make, and its not likely you can make them up by bullying people on the bubble.

-Jason

[Sabrazack]

The more i think about this the more i want to call. If i call and loose, the bubble is preserved and all the l337 2+2ers in the middle stacks will think im a total donk for not preserving the bubble and maybe be more weary of calling me. And if i win, well, i win 751 chips /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[LethalRose]

im not a sng player but could someone clarify what exactly the advantage of folding here for 1 chip...

Im hoping this isnt a correct strategy in an MTT..

[ChuckyB]

Perhaps I'm missing something/everything but why would I ever fold in this situation for one chip with 1001 on the line?
Is it to preserve a tight image? So people still think my moves carry some weight this late in the game? Or is to make them think I'm a total fish?

Where I'm at right now, I can believe anyone would give up 1001:1 pot odds pre-flop.

[lastchance]

Again, because you can exploit the tight medium stacks on the bubble.

But I'm never making this laydown simply because my opponents are calling with AT when I push any 2.

[curtains]

Probably once you make this play, UTG should move allin with any 2 cards, since basically all 3 players will fold such a large majority of the time. You fold because you have already shown you want the bubble to stay alive, BB folds because of the button being short on chips, and button folds most hands because maybe someone will call UTG and bust him (not to mention the fact that it seems youve given him the green light to steal from you on the bubble).

Personally I don't fold here but ok it's hard to quantifiably measure how many chips it's worth to have this bubble situation. I just don't think it's worth it, yes sometimes you steal all the blinds, but really I've had these situations come up unintentionally so often and things just didn't work as planned. It's beautiful when it does, but really by just calling you have great chances to win first place anyway, it just psychologically feels like you had more control those times when you steal your way all the way to 8000 chips and then win (note that you are almost never going to steal your way to higher than 8000, so you are making this fold where if you called you might end the hand with 5500 chips...just for the chance that you can just steal everyones blinds and get to like 7000-8000, which won't happen as often as everyone seems to think.) I'd rather not pass up such a clearly +CEV play here.

[microbet]

Next hand if it is folded around to SB and SB pushes, BB will be +$EV to call with

ATs+, AJ+, 66+, KQs (7.7% of hands)

That is still a pretty tight range, but I suspect if you told BB that you push with any two (which you just did) they would open their calling range further.

I tried to take this analysis further, but it gets too long to go into further hands.

How -$EV is folding? From about 1% to about 3.6% of the pool depending on SB's pushing range and the hand you are holding.

I'm just putting some stuff up for consideration. I understand the point, but think this may be marginal. If the blinds were 150/300 and the SB had 301 chips, I think it would be more clear and at 100/200 - SB with 201 it would be obvious.

[citanul]

i think that many of the posters who play the 200s would make this play when it was actually correct, but i don't know for sure if i like your example as a spot where it is actually correct.

you have to consider the maximum amount of chips that you're going to get from the bubble, and also the amount of chips your giving up.

the number of chips you're giving up is some random function of basically how good your hand is, since your opponent is going to be all in with any two.

on the other hand, once you make the stacks 1000 2000 2000 5000, and the guy with 1000 is likely going to be all in the next hand also this happens:

either on the next hand you call and win, you call and lose, or someone else calls and wins or calls and loses, or you all fold:

situations: (rounded figures)

you call and win: 6k 2k 2k, but nothing at all gained by your previous fold.

you call and lose: 4k 2k 2k 2k, i'm not loving this, and you're utg.

someone else calls and wins: 5k 3k 2k. well, you're in the money, but well, again, you gained nothing by folding in that spot except maybe some intergame information that your opponents will think that you're a "bubble king" or something

someone else calls and loses: 5k 2k 2k 1k. well, this is nice, since it's the same situation as you were in before the hand, and the fact that the guy who's now in the bb is the guy with the 2nd most chips is Very good for you.

everyone folds (less rounded figures) 5k, 1750, 1750, 1500. again, not my favorite situation. other people are going to be pushing, and they're going to be calling. they're simply so short, all of them, relative to the blinds, that most of the standard competition at the 200s is NOT getting out of the way "just because it's the bubble."

personally i think that its VERY unlikely that even a player who is very good at keeping the bubble alive and working it will be able to extract say, 1500 chips from that bubble. it's probably pretty unlikely that they'll be able to extract 1000 more chips either. a big part of this is that there really isn't that big a difference in stack sizes between the short stacks. so i don't think that it's all that justifiable to fold for 1 chip, getting 1000 to 1, since well:

if you win the hand, you've got 1000 chips more of equity than if you fold
if you lose the hand, you're in the same situation you were going to fold your way into.

citanul

[curtains]

btw I think the idea of keeping the bubble alive by passing up huge +EV plays is severely overrated, but everyone on 2+2 tells me I'm wrong

(except I asked ZeeJustin on IM just to make sure I wasn't crazy and he said he thinks it's basically stupid and only does it when the decision is only slightly +EV, which clearly isn't the case here. So okay, I'm pretty sure he is also in the camp of this concept being overrated if that means anything to anyone. Problem is that everytime anyone mentions it on 2+2 you get 10 people immediately posting how brilliant a strategy it is.)


PS - Also if it's so #@^%@^ brilliant then why did the BB call me with A8s for 3500 chips when I pushed from cutoff with 5500 and both other players had 800 chips in a $200 today!

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
...the bubble and maybe be more weary of calling me...

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, language pet peeve time people:

weary != wary
weary != leery
weary != wary + leery

weary = sleepy, tired, worn out.

citanul

[citanul]

yes, i agree fully, that passing on BIG edges to preserve the bubble is bad. passing on small ones, quite good.

citanul

[ZeeJustin]

Keeping him alive is not worth 1000 chips.

Yes, I am well aware that your EV on this hand is not 1000 chips, but that is still the relevant number here. Do you see why?

Ok, enough David Sklansky. If you call and lose, it's the same thing as if you would have folded, except for that 1 irrelevent chip. Therefore, we can ignore the possibility of you losing, and only examine when you win.

When you win, you win your opponents 500 chips, and you get to keep your 500. Thats 1000 chips.

If you think keeping those 2 players alive is worth 10% of all the chips in play, you are crazy.

[Gramps]

I think you underestimate the level of spite-calling that occurs in the $215s on a regular basis (on the bubble against the pushing every hand big stack), and it's only bound to increase after you make this play. The masses have adjusted much better to a "pushing any two cards on the bubble big stack" than 6 months ago - they make fewer incorrect folds on average (to my recollection, at least).

Now they want to call you, so they may even make incorrect calls (for them -$EV) that are also -$EV for you (but +$EV for the other two players who get a freeroll shot at 3rd).

It may be a -$EV for you in future SNGs as well (those sort of plays stick in people's mind, and they may take pleasure in looking up your push on the bubble when you really don't want them doing that - whether you're the big stack or a shorter stack trying to maintain FE).

I think if the pot odds scream call, you make it as the big stack on the bubble in the $215s. Under other game conditions where you're only going to get called by a monster, I'd fold and continue stealing.

[citanul]

i'd like to take a moment to interject that of late it appears that people have changed the word "call" to "spite call" in many instances where it really doesn't seem correct.

someone making a bad call and giving you all their chips is not a spite call all the time, it's often just that they stink.

citanul

[SumZero]

Without reading the replies this seems to me like a case where you want to fold in order to continue punishing the 2k stacks. If you knock out the short stack you'll lose a lot of FE.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
Without reading the replies this seems to me like a case where you want to fold in order to continue punishing the 2k stacks. If you knock out the short stack you'll lose a lot of FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

When they have 4xBB you don't have a lot of FE even if you didn't trumpet out to the table what your intentions are by folding to the SB. If the blinds were 100/200 and the raise from SB was a bit bigger than 1 chips you can get the middle stacks to fold a lot of hands since they at least have some time to find a hand they like.

[iMsoLucky0]

I have made this play numerous times at the 215s. This situation is fairly rare though. Every time it arises though, I will use plays like to this to my advantage and rule the table. A while ago I posted two complete bubble hand histories that contained several situations like this. I'm too lazy to find it now though.

[TheNoodleMan]

[ QUOTE ]
im not a sng player but could someone clarify what exactly the advantage of folding here for 1 chip...

Im hoping this isnt a correct strategy in an MTT..

[/ QUOTE ]
IMO, its even more correct in a MTT. The chips that can be accumulated in a MTT bubble scenario are HUGE.

[freemoney]

no the bubble is very different, it isnt right.

[freemoney]

i dont agree i will fold if blinds are 200/400 and SB moves all and its like 400 more for me to call alot of times here, but i dont think it is right to fold here, its too obvious.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

IMO, its even more correct in a MTT. The chips that can be accumulated in a MTT bubble scenario are HUGE.

[/ QUOTE ]

However, in an MTT scenario you can't singlehandedly preserve the bubble in this fashion, you can only hope to help it along. Thus there's even less guarantee that this little maneuver will actually earn you much of anything.

[curtains]

This only works in top class tournaments where you know that the big stacks will be using the great strategy of keeping the bubble alive at all the tables, thus ensuring a neverending bubble. (I usually rely on this tecnique in the Stars $11 rebuy tournaments)

[microbet]

I have them printed out on my desk. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Ryendal]

[ QUOTE ]
dont agree i will fold if blinds are 200/400 and SB moves all and its like 400 more for me to call alot of times here, but i dont think it is right to fold here, its too obvious.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is it so important that is obvious ?

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]

Is it so important that is obvious ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it is since the middle stacks now know you will push any two. What do you think happens with their calling range when they have that information?

[Ryendal]

That is why I asked. I believe it's almost the same ...

[microbet]

Look up at my earlier posts.

[Ryendal]

Yes, but even if it is obvious, the opponent know even you can hold a real good hand ... and will he take the risk to be out of the tournament on a weird call like KT, A3o or whatever ?

By essence a call is semi-suicidal here ...

[microbet]

He will lower his standards. That may mean from only calling with QQ+, to calling with 99+, AQ+ or it could mean calling with KT. Whatever it is, in particular, it will lower his standards and that does have a cost to you. There are other costs, and there are advantages too. This is just one point to consider, but you can't forget that you will affect their calling standards.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, but even if it is obvious, the opponent know even you can hold a real good hand ... and will he take the risk to be out of the tournament on a weird call like KT, A3o or whatever ?

By essence a call is semi-suicidal here ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Next hand BB will have 1500 to call to win 2500 chips against a random hand. He would be correct to call with a huge range of hands.

If I knew you would push any two I would call with KT, A3 and plenty of worse hands. Why? a) because I know I am a favourite on average b) because I know big stack will push my blinds every time until three handed and fold when short stack raises his BB.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
btw I think the idea of keeping the bubble alive by passing up huge +EV plays is severely overrated, but everyone on 2+2 tells me I'm wrong

(except I asked ZeeJustin on IM just to make sure I wasn't crazy and he said he thinks it's basically stupid and only does it when the decision is only slightly +EV, which clearly isn't the case here. So okay, I'm pretty sure he is also in the camp of this concept being overrated if that means anything to anyone. Problem is that everytime anyone mentions it on 2+2 you get 10 people immediately posting how brilliant a strategy it is.)


PS - Also if it's so #@^%@^ brilliant then why did the BB call me with A8s for 3500 chips when I pushed from cutoff with 5500 and both other players had 800 chips in a $200 today!

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the above. There's a major case of FPS going around here in these types of situations IMO. When you break down the possibilities, it often just doesn't add up to be the right play (passing up a highly +cev call to supposedly continue to rape the blinds unfettered - which you'll be successfull doing a much smaller % of the time than people seem to think).

Of course, if I'm the super-short stack pushing in the SB, go with the 2+2 consensus.

[Ryendal]

[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yes, but even if it is obvious, the opponent know even you can hold a real good hand ... and will he take the risk to be out of the tournament on a weird call like KT, A3o or whatever ?

By essence a call is semi-suicidal here ...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Next hand BB will have 1500 to call to win 2500 chips against a random hand. He would be correct to call with a huge range of hands.

If I knew you would push any two I would call with KT, A3 and plenty of worse hands. Why? a) because I know I am a favourite on average b) because I know big stack will push my blinds every time until three handed and fold when short stack raises his BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well even here, if I was medium stack, I believe to wait is more +EV than to take the risk of a call. You can hit the short stack with KT or A3o for example ...

[HoldingFolding]

1. You have never seen anyone make this fold.
2. This is the correct way to play the bubble
3. Ergo nobody is playing the bubble correctly
4. Medium stacks should fold to your steals with anything other than premium hands

So do you find at the 200s that your opponents do consistently fold or does your 98s get played back at by KTo? I know it does at the 33s (I'm tempted to add 'these days' here)

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course, if I'm the super-short stack pushing in the SB, go with the 2+2 consensus.

[/ QUOTE ]

No consensus.

[SuitedSixes]

Let me introduce you to:

Mr. Small Stack Hanger-Onner Guy. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Board=singletable&amp;Number=164 6743&amp;fpart=&amp;PHPSESSID=)

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yes, but even if it is obvious, the opponent know even you can hold a real good hand ... and will he take the risk to be out of the tournament on a weird call like KT, A3o or whatever ?

By essence a call is semi-suicidal here ...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Next hand BB will have 1500 to call to win 2500 chips against a random hand. He would be correct to call with a huge range of hands.

If I knew you would push any two I would call with KT, A3 and plenty of worse hands. Why? a) because I know I am a favourite on average b) because I know big stack will push my blinds every time until three handed and fold when short stack raises his BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well even here, if I was medium stack, I believe to wait is more +EV than to take the risk of a call. You can hit the short stack with KT or A3o for example ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait for what? In two hands you have 1250 chips with blinds of 250/500 and possibly going up before the blinds hit you again where you once again will be put all-in by the big stack. Only chance you will have to open a pot is by going all in for your 1250 chips when you are UTG (and an even bigger big stack will be BB). Sure, you might get AA but chances are you won't.

[Ryendal]

Well in the worst case, I become the short stack, and since the big stack ( since it's obvious ) want to keep me alive ( now ) all is fine ;-)

[Gramps]

Okay, majority. A lot of hating going on with my sub-par precision of language tonight (getting hated on for "spite" calls as well)

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me introduce you to:

Mr. Small Stack Hanger-Onner Guy. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Board=singletable&amp;Number=164 6743&amp;fpart=&amp;PHPSESSID=)

[/ QUOTE ]

I had almost forgotten how brilliant that post was.

!

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

Yugoslav

[ZeeJustin]

In case my earlier post wasn't play, this fold isn't just bad, it's absolutely terrible. By no stretch of the imagination is it borderline. It's on par with the 43o post I made (which was a complete joke for those that missed it). I can't believe people are actually arguing over this.

[microbet]

No hate meant by me. Citanul probably meant it though.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
No hate meant by me. Citanul probably meant it though.

[/ QUOTE ]

No worries, and I think you're right.

[pzhon]

What are your estimates on your place distributions at (6k,2k,2k) and (5k,2k,2k,1k)? The ICM is not reliable for this, but your intuition must disagree with mine. After the bubble, you can still use a big stack to steal from two smaller stacks, since so much of their equity comes from hoping the other player gets knocked out in third.

[viennagreen]

i think that this would be a better example if blinds were 150/300

with blinds as high as 250/500, you're not going to be able to bully the medium stacks as much.

so put me in that camp that would never make this fold--- i just don't think that you gain as much as you think by keeping the bubble alive in this situation.

[Bigwig]

I doubt the vast majority make this fold. But I do, and I'm certainly not alone.

[BradleyT]

With 250/500 blinds this game is already over anyway.

Edit - meaning a fold is retarded.

[raptor517]

first off, the game is NOT over already. if you know how to play a stack here, you can do at 70% better than a n00b on this bubble with yer stack. holla

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
first off, the game is NOT over already.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. Having half of the chips does not even mean you will survive the bubble.

[ QUOTE ]
if you know how to play a stack here, you can do at 70% better than a n00b on this bubble with yer stack.

[/ QUOTE ]
70% of what? You certainly can't expect to win 70% more prize money, or to win the tournament 70% more often than all but the weakest players.

[iMsoLucky0]

[ QUOTE ]
I have them printed out on my desk. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

That makes me feel so good.

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
I wish you wouldnt post such things.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im going to try to hold myself back here. You have no idea how much ive been hearing this since the article in SI came out. Stop making me feel guilty for posting what I consider an interesting topic for discussion on the damn internet. If you are so bad at poker that you rely on 2+2 to be some sort of 'hidden resource' then bite my skinny white ass. Im not here to cater to anyone and if I want to talk about something poker strategy related dont [censored] give me [censored] about it.

Cheers!
-Jason

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
quit making people better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ibid.

[Sabrazack]

Thanks for correcting me, seriously, english is only my second language and i want to learn to use these more "fancy" words without misspelling them.

[eastbay]

Clearly what is called for here is a Zee/Strassa grudge match to settle the issue.

eastbay

[Sabrazack]

FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!

(Im cheering for Zee) /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Jason Strasser]

Curtains,

Good post.

[ QUOTE ]
UTG should move allin with any 2 cards

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true, but quite often he wont because he's scared of busting as you know.

I guess what this comes down to is the fact that I think I can, over the long run get more chips out my opponents, who are generally tight, then I can busting the bubble. In my experience and judgement at least...

[freemoney]

its really worth 1000 chips though, how many orbits can this last before the 2 medium stacks realizing what is going on take a stand or as curtains says goes all in. the chips are too significant to fold this but that has been said alot

[Sponger15SB]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wish you wouldnt post such things.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im going to try to hold myself back here. You have no idea how much ive been hearing this since the article in SI came out. Stop making me feel guilty for posting what I consider an interesting topic for discussion on the damn internet. If you are so bad at poker that you rely on 2+2 to be some sort of 'hidden resource' then bite my skinny white ass. Im not here to cater to anyone and if I want to talk about something poker strategy related dont [censored] give me [censored] about it.

Cheers!
-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

It wouldn't suprise me if FieryJustice didn't even know what the hell you were talking about when you mentioned the SI article.

Btw folding in the OP is horrible, as other smart posters have explained.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
if you know how to play a stack here, you can do at 70% better than a n00b on this bubble with yer stack.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


70% of what? You certainly can't expect to win 70% more prize money, or to win the tournament 70% more often than all but the weakest players.

[/ QUOTE ]

what do you think n00b implies? the best players? no. it implies the weakest players. holla

[fluorescenthippo]

if you fold this, the short stack will have 1000 chips. This is hardly the "shortstack" compared to the two 2000 ish stacks with these huge blinds.

therefore, the medium stacks' calling standards will be much wider than you would want as the bigstack pushing any two here.

they would (correctly) call your pushes with AT, KQ, 66 etc.

its not likely enough that you can steal 750 twice to make up for folding

the blinds need to be much lower for folding to be an option.

[lacky]

can I see the non-hold back version? please?

Steve

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
yes, i agree fully, that passing on BIG edges to preserve the bubble is bad. passing on small ones, quite good.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

That's it in a nutshell IMO too. In OP's scenario it would be very bad to fold...but this is not to say that preserving the bubble is always wrong...just here it is.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Keeping him alive is not worth 1000 chips.

Yes, I am well aware that your EV on this hand is not 1000 chips, but that is still the relevant number here. Do you see why?

Ok, enough David Sklansky. If you call and lose, it's the same thing as if you would have folded, except for that 1 irrelevent chip. Therefore, we can ignore the possibility of you losing, and only examine when you win.

When you win, you win your opponents 500 chips, and you get to keep your 500. Thats 1000 chips.

If you think keeping those 2 players alive is worth 10% of all the chips in play, you are crazy.

[/ QUOTE ]

nice post. i agree with all of it.

(but it should be "keeping one player alive" in last paragraph, right?).

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
You have no idea how much ive been hearing this since the article in SI came out.

[/ QUOTE ]

i feel like i'm very late on this, but what article in si?

[berya]

"If you call and lose, it's the same thing as if you would have folded, except for that 1 irrelevent chip."

I think this one line says it all and why folding here any hand that looks like anything is almost criminal.