Hypothetical overpair hand

[iceman5]

OK, so we all know that calling a raise with a pocket pair and then leading into the raiser when you hit a set is a very profitable play. Although, I rarely seein anyone do it. Usually they check raise the flop or turn.

So in a $5/$10 game, if you make a standard raise to $40 and get a caller who then leads into you for the pot (or close to it) do raise him, which is exactly what he wants you to do if he has a set? For htis hand we assume thae player is pretty good although I dont know if he leasd with sets. He might or might not and hes good enough to mix it up.

So you raise to $40 with KK. He calls from the blind.
The flop is T62 rainbow and he leads out for $80. You both have full stacks.

The normal play would be to raise with your overpair, but if I was the caller, thats exactly what I would want him to do. Is there any way to combat this play when you dont know if hes actually doing it or not?

The only thing I can see him having is a set or JJ, QQ. Maybe a smaller pair if he thinks I have AK?

I try to note anyone I see lead with a set when Im not in the hand, but I always get freaked out when I see someone do this.

[Jonny]

I would raise to 200. Then if he reraises, you fold.

Or if he leads on the turn for a decent amount I think a fold may be in order. This is assuming a drawless flop though. Once you factor in semibluffs, I think you have to call down a bit more.

If he smooth calls your flop raise, I check behind on the turn on a drawless board and usually call a riverbet.

Overall though, I don't think I can give it up that easily on the flop, and I think you need to take control of the hand. Make him say he has you beat.

Nice post.

[AZK]

[ QUOTE ]

OK, so we all know that calling a raise with a pocket pair and then leading into the raiser when you hit a set is a very profitable play. Although, I rarely seein anyone do it. Usually they check raise the flop or turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

People check-raise/wait for the turn in case the guy has overcards since people have a propensity to autobet the flop if they raised preflop.

The whole leading into the raiser with a set idea is better when you make it 40 to go UTG with XX and he reraises with AA/KK, then when the flop comes XYZ you lead into him...get it?

[iceman5]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

OK, so we all know that calling a raise with a pocket pair and then leading into the raiser when you hit a set is a very profitable play. Although, I rarely seein anyone do it. Usually they check raise the flop or turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

People check-raise/wait for the turn in case the guy has overcards since people have a propensity to autobet the flop if they raised preflop.

The whole leading into the raiser with a set idea is better when you make it 40 to go UTG with XX and he reraises with AA/KK, then when the flop comes XYZ you lead into him...get it?

[/ QUOTE ]

So you agree that raising to $200 or so and then if the board is drawless..checking behind on the turn?

When I first started playing (and for a long time) I would raise the flop and bet the turn also. Now I get a little less anxious to pot commit myself with just a pair.

If I was the caller and had a set on that flop, I would lead out, call his raise and if he bet the turn , I would check raise him all in. Its too late for him to get away.

I hate to get trapped by this same play even though i almost never see anyone play it this way.

The reason Im asking this is that yesterday, this exact hand came up. The caller lead into me and I just called fearing a set. Then the lucky fool hit his set at the turn and I called him down. He had 33. (I forgot what I said the hypothetical flop was the real flop was ten high with no draws and no 3) T62 I think.

Now, obviously if I raise the flop he will fold. But if I knew he had 33, would it really be correct to raise? He has 2 outs. I cant figure out if I really screwed this hand up or if he just got incredibly lucky which made me look stupid.

[AZK]

I can't give you a set answer. It depends on how loose/tight i'm playing at the moment and aggression, and how the other guy plays. SOme guys I call down cause they have TPTK, other guys have me smoked. How can you come up with a definite right play, it's impossible... without any read and no idea on the internet, I probably call the flop, see what he does on the turn.

[BobboFitos]

Ice,

On a drawless board with AA or KK (esp AA where no overcards hurt) I dont really see any crime in calling the flop - if you raise it squeezes them off hands you dont mind in (2 out underpairs, at most 5 if pair plus kicker lower then AA or KK) raising becomes more correct when you dont know what cards you want to see (or dont want to see*) and want to price out a possible draw they could be leading into you with.

I also think raising the flop / checking the turn / calling a river bet or betting if checked to is not the optimum line on a drawless board.. What are they "bluffing" at the river? Are they value betting a worse hand? This line has more merit on drawing boards where you make them pay to draw on the flop, exercise pot control on the turn, and snap off a busted draw on the river.

In your hand I think you just got unlucky.

A corrolary is though, once thye lead into you on the flop do they shut down or give further action unimproved?

[iceman5]

[ QUOTE ]
Ice,

On a drawless board with AA or KK (esp AA where no overcards hurt) I dont really see any crime in calling the flop - if you raise it squeezes them off hands you dont mind in (2 out underpairs, at most 5 if pair plus kicker lower then AA or KK) raising becomes more correct when you dont know what cards you want to see (or dont want to see*) and want to price out a possible draw they could be leading into you with.

I also think raising the flop / checking the turn / calling a river bet or betting if checked to is not the optimum line on a drawless board.. What are they "bluffing" at the river? Are they value betting a worse hand? This line has more merit on drawing boards where you make them pay to draw on the flop, exercise pot control on the turn, and snap off a busted draw on the river.

In your hand I think you just got unlucky.

A corrolary is though, once thye lead into you on the flop do they shut down or give further action unimproved?

[/ QUOTE ]

On this hand, if I raised the flop, check the turn, and called the river...couldnt he have JJ or QQ there? My play looks like Im trying to be aggressive with an unimproved AK doesnt it?

After this hand, I tried leading out like this guy did with an underpair and I got raised all 3 times. This is exactly why leading with a set works and why I get freaked out when someone leads into me after I raised with a big pair. I just hardly ever see anyone do it.

The point is that one of us has 2 outs and I cant seem to figure out what to do.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]

On this hand, if I raised the flop, check the turn, and called the river...couldnt he have JJ or QQ there? My play looks like Im trying to be aggressive with an unimproved AK doesnt it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, he could have QQ/JJ, but I think you win same amount (or more) vs that range if you call flop, then if turn blanks he checks you bet he calls and riv you can value bet or he bets you call he checks you might grey area value bet there.

I think him having specifically JJ/QQ is a pretty small range to exploit money from. Does this guy ONLY play pocket pairs?

[iceman5]

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On this hand, if I raised the flop, check the turn, and called the river...couldnt he have JJ or QQ there? My play looks like Im trying to be aggressive with an unimproved AK doesnt it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, he could have QQ/JJ, but I think you win same amount (or more) vs that range if you call flop, then if turn blanks he checks you bet he calls and riv you can value bet or he bets you call he checks you might grey area value bet there.

I think him having specifically JJ/QQ is a pretty small range to exploit money from. Does this guy ONLY play pocket pairs?

[/ QUOTE ]

He plays 8 tables and Im alomst positive that he wont call raise without a pair, especially out of position.

[mgsimpleton]

i used to seriously fear sets as well and just call down if led into... then i decided that i'm willing to get stacked more often with my overpair. after a few incorrect folds of overpairs, i now just suck it up and accept that i might get stacked now and again. of course, if the flop goes he leads, i raise, he calls, then he check raises turn all-in... i'll sometimes fold depending on my read. anyway the point is i think it is + EV to play overpairs aggressively... opponents are often too impatient to wait for sets and will often try to outplay you/assume you're bluffing with AK.

[captZEEbo1]

Not raising your overpairs is sometimes a good play. Because all the sudden the 3rd flush card comes, and he freezes up, assuming your flop call meant flush draw. It depends on the opponent, and if it's multiway or not.