Did the flop miss my opponent?

[TripleH68]

Hero holds 22 in SB. All fold, hero raises, BB calls.

Flop: K /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Assuming BB does not hold pp, what are the odds this flop missed him?

Flop: K /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Is it correct to say this flop more likely missed him?
How much more likely than in the first example?

Please feel free to make any further assumptions as necessary.

[LetYouDown]

Well, can you narrow the range of hands that he has? Does he call with 7-4 preflop? How do you define "missed"? If the opponent holds Q-J, does the gutshot on hand #1 count?

If you're simply looking for pairs, then the calculation becomes much easier.

[TripleH68]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, can you narrow the range of hands that he has? Does he call with 7-4 preflop? How do you define "missed"? If the opponent holds Q-J, does the gutshot on hand #1 count?

If you're simply looking for pairs, then the calculation becomes much easier.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can we try it simply looking for pairs and see what we get? At first I am just interested in how much a pair on the flop makes a difference. Thanks for the help.

[AaronBrown]

How about looking at it this way? If he holds a K, 9 or 5, he has you beat. If he holds any pair but 2's he also has you beat, although the flop missed him, and you said you wanted to ignore pocket pairs. As LetYouDown said, he could have a straight possibility, but we'll also count this as a miss.

If he would call on any hand at all, there is a 65% chance that the flop missed him, that is that he doesn't hold K, 9 or 5. However, if we assume that he would require at least a Jack high to call and that he doesn't have a pair, the chance that he missed the flop goes up to 86%.

[kiddj]

assuming a random hand: flop 1 misses 65% of the time; flop 1 misses about 80% of the time

If you narrow the hands that your opponent will defend with in his BB, the chances are much higher that he hits. (Like if he plays any K, or Kxs, or K6 or higher, or any Ace including A9 and A5.)

[kiddj]

[ QUOTE ]
However, if we assume that he would require at least a Jack high to call and that he doesn't have a pair, the chance that he missed the flop goes up to 86%.

[/ QUOTE ]

How would narrowing the hands he could have increase the chance that the flop missed?

[Siegmund]

[ QUOTE ]

How would narrowing the hands he could have increase the chance that the flop missed?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you know your opponent is playing high cards, then most rag flops will miss him , while most broadway flops will hit him.

It's a well known effect in the case of playing against limpers. If you are one of those crazy forum people who thinks Q5s is a playable hand, you are often ahead on a 7-5-2 flop but often way behind on a K-Q-J flop.

Vs. the big blind the effect isn't nearly so dramatic because the range of hands for the blind is so much wider.

I suspect the OP's intent in asking this question about the blinds was simply get the easy answers of 38C2/47C2 and 42C2/47C2, according to whether he is dodging nine or five cards, and avoid considerations of which cards someone not in the blind might be playing.

[pzhon]

To answer a different question:

22 wins 47.6% against a random nonpair on a K95r board. 22 wins 45.3% against a random hand.

22 wins 50.6% against a random nonpair on a KK5r board. 22 wins 48.1% against a random hand.