How do you play?

[locutus2002]

Bugsy STT $22+$2 1st place only pays $220

4 players left. All players have won/stolen lots of pots.

Hero has consistently been leading out most of the 3 low card flops with continuation bets OOP.
Villain has folded to several all-in bets.

100/200/50

Button Villain (T4100)
SB (T3100)
BB Hero (T4500) 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG (T8300)

Pot has (T500) Villain opens for T600, Hero calls T400.
Flop (T1500) 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

My read is that villain has 2 overs. Would you make another standard continuation bet? Push? or Check?

[schwza]

my default would be to c/r a-i.

[locutus2002]

What if you think there is a high chance villain won't bet (>50%).

[Ben Therre]

60/40 he bets, and I agree with C/R. If Villain does check you still get a free card. You probably have to check the turn also, even if u do hit the flush. If you miss and Villain bets then I would only check raise if you added outs to your draw. Otherwise I would need to consider the size of the bet before I call.
GL

[schwza]

do you have any sense of whether he tends to bet when he misses vs. bets when he hits?

[Ben Therre]

Good point but with four player left the blinds are big enough for most players to make a stab. You never really know though.

[locutus2002]

My sense is that he's not likely to bet this without a pair.

I'm wondering if I should push to pick up the pot, or try to get villain to commit more chips with a c/r or a continuation bet. I'm particularly interested in why based on the stacks and the payout.

My continuation bet and my LAGgy image elicited a push from villain which I half expected.

[Lloyd]

It's dangerous to completely rule out an overpair or set. You should at least consider that as a possible holding, as well as him being on a complete bluff.

You're a slight favorite to overcards and slight dog to an overpair.I wouldn't mind getting all my chips in the middle on this hand.

You can't push the flop because that would be a huge overbet. If you check and he bets 2/3 the pot and you pushed, there would be about 6400 costing him another 2900. Those aren't horrible odds if he has a decent hand but he would certainly fold trash. If he calls you're probably 50/50 to draw out on him (a little better if he has overcards, a little worse if he has an overpair).

If he checks behind you've got a free card and can see if you improve. If he pushes you've got a tough decision. Given that only the winner gets paid I would very likely take the chance that he has overs and call but it's a pretty loose call and I personally don't mind taking risks like that.