Detroit vs. San Antonio

[miami32]

I would like to start a thread on thoughts on the series. Thoughts that have to do with strictly betting purposes though. If one has an opinion on either side please back up your claim with reasoning. Now who does everyone like and why? Also any thoughts on over under and the series winner bets?

[Kevroc]

PISTONS SERIES (+220)

Guard Play, Coaching, Experience, Price

[heropretend]

i'm just gonna watch the games, bet small, find a decent capper, and bet halftime scores. i think i'd rather just talk abuot the game over a beer and get back to some live poker.

gl

[PokerGoblin]

I am looking at Det @ +6 1/2 in game 1. Coming off a layoff SA will be rusty, especially in the first half. Both teams have the experience, but I think the game will be much closer than 7 points.

PG

[Sly_Grin]

Not an NBA expert but I think San Antonio will win the series, though that has no bearing on the one wager I actually made. I took Detroit at +700 to win in 7 games. I think this is a far better wager than Detroit +220 for the series. In fact, if the series simply goes 7 games I will lock in a profit by taking San Antonio on the money line.

[homedog]

You gotta love the defensive matchups in this one.

If Tony Parker can cover Steve Nash, he can handle Chauncey.

Bruce Bowen on Rip.

The most interesting one the other way might be Tayshaun trying to stay with Manu Ginobili. (I think Manu is still so underrated. Don't forget that this guy won Argentina the Gold.)

Both teams have won the championship the past 2 years so I don't see experience necessarily being in Detroit's favor.

If it wasn't for that crazy Derek Fisher shot last year in game 5, San Antonio might be going for 3 in a row.

If Detroit is gonna have a shot in this thing the Wallaces are gonna have to dominate. Amare Stoudamire showed that it's possible.

My money is on San Antonio from a mid season future. But at these numbers, I don't fault anyone for backing Detroit.
I almost hedged the other night when I saw it jump to +240. But injuries aside, I can't see San Antonio losing.

[Runner Runner]

SA at -6.5 at home does have some value. I don't buy the "San Antonio will be rusty" argument, and would tend believe that the Pistons will be physically and emotionally drained from their long series.

With that being said, San Antonio is playing great basketball right now on both ends of the floor. I expect them to win by double digits tonight.

[heropretend]

after looking at a few things, i'm going with detroit tonight and will place a small bet on the under in every game. i cant see detroit collapsing, but on the other hand, i can see the spurs guard play coming out a little out of control with the long layoff. i agree that manu is underrated and possibly the 2nd best player in this series, but i've gotta wonder how effective he'll play (will he get careless/overzealous...he's facing ball hounds like rip, lindsey, and prince...great matchups for detroit here). game 1 upsets aren't very rare, i think the pistons did it last year, so get em detroit!~

[lastsamurai]

with my experiece with sports betting..sometimes the line makers are trying to tell you something... dont fall into this detroit trap...i would take san antonio -6/6.5 and then take detroit game 2.

The great thing about taking detroit this series is that you could aways hedge this bet!

[llabb]

Long series betting strategy and matchup analysis:

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After finishing betting the conference finals, I took some time to review all my different types of plays. I've discovered that I do all right with individual games and props, but that I've done much better with betting the entire series.

After I do my matchups and analysis, the teams I like to win the series are usually favored, and I do not like the heavy odds I would have to lay. So what I do is select the team to win in a certain amount of games. Usually I pick 2 games (for example, Miami over Washington in 4 or 5, and Detroit over Miami in 6 or 7), and I occasionally hedge 1 or 2 other outcomes. This has resulted in an average line of -160, which is much better than series lines of anywhere from -200 to -500.

I've been quite fortunate so far and done better than I expected. I started in the conference semi's, and have gone 6-0, up 21 units.

For the finals, I like San Antonio in 6 or 7, which results in a net line of +105. If I wimp out and hedge, I would play smaller amounts on SA in 5 and Det in 7 to break-even, and that would make my net line on SA in 6 or 7 to drop to -180.

Trying to decide which one to do, by gametime. Any suggestions? Bank the past wins and play it safe, or use them to freeroll and go for more?

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Thoughts on the matchups:

PG: Billups has edge over Parker. Both these players can score on each other. Parker is quicker, and should be able to get by Billups, but Det's bigs in the lane will slow him down. He's a little soft, and if Det knocks him to the ground like the Lakers did last year, he's in trouble. Billups can post Parker up all day, no prob. They've both been able to score all right in past games.

SG: Hamilton only slight edge over Bowen. Yes, Bowen is a SF, but this is how the defensive matchups will go. Rip is great, and Bowen has no offense, but Bowen has shown he has the ability to lock Rip down. In 4 games over last 2 years against Bowen, Rip is 8, 11, 13 & 15.

SF: Ginobili has edge over Prince. Tayshaun can do a little bit of everything, but so can Manu. Manu is becoming a superstar, with many experts saying he is probably the 2nd best player in the series.

PF: Duncan has edge over Rasheed. Although Rasheed does give Duncan more trouble than most other defenders. They may both severely limit each other's game, but in the end, Duncan provides more than Rasheed does.

C: Ben Wallace has edge over Mohammed. Nazr will be a welcome sight after facing Shaq.

Bench: Spurs have edge. Barry and Horry bring a lot more than Hunter and McDyess, and in fact they often close out the games. SA is also deeper and has a few other bench players they actually use, where Det has no one.

Coaching: Although many automatically give this to Larry Brown, it is fairly even. Both are highly familiar with each other's styles, and perhaps it is even time for the student to become the master.

Styles: Det plays one style, and SA plays that style just as well. In a slow-down series, both sides can play solid defense on the other, but SA has more ways to score. If Bowen continues to shut Rip down, Det does not have enough offense. Also, if SA can open up the floor at all, Det wil not be able to keep up.

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Experts' analysis:

The basketball writers on ESPN and CBS have been predicting each series' outcome. 5 of 6 predict the Spurs in 6 or 7. The top 4, who are each 12-2 or better, all pick the Spurs, including Ford, who is 14-0 and 7-7 for exact # of games.


Happy Finals Wagering.

[scalf]

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i like the spurs and under in game 1..

game one would be the easiest g for deeeetroit to steal; but i think the rest has helped duncan and spurs...spurs can play defense as well as pistones..in fact san antone can shut you down for 6-8 mins' and put themselves up by 10

love the unders

game one under 176 bet it all

gl

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[llabb]

Posted series thoughts. For Game 1, I'm also on the Spurs and Under.

Took the Under 176, and a teaser for Spurs -2 Under 182.5.

[llabb]

The way this game is going, anyone thinking about taking the Under on the 2nd half as well? 37 pt 1st Q, looking like a high 30's 2nd Q as well, for a half in the high 70's. 2nd half line should be around 88-ish.

I've already got the Under on the game. Maybe take 1/2 the amount I bet on that, and lay it on the 2nd half Under. Wouldn't want to lose all the winnings assuming the Game Under hits (looks likely at this pt), but am willing to press my bet for another 50%.

[llabb]

2nd half line is 87. After a quick scan, it seems that a majority of the Det-SA games go lower in the 2nd half than 1st half. Same for a majority of SA and Det's Game 1's in their other series so far this playoffs. Gonna take 2nd half Under for 1/2 my Game Under amount. The Game Under seems like a winner already (crossing fingers), since they'd need to score a 104 2nd half to ruin it. Here goes nothing.

[llabb]

JUH-noh-BLEEE!! Incredible SA game, after a horrible, rusty start, they just dominated!

Tonight I was very fortunate, as absolutely everything just went my way. 4-0 on the game, for the under, teaser, parlay, and 2nd half under. 4-0 on props, as written in the other thread. Net +39 units. Now if I can only keep from bleeding it away on the other games...

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]
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i like the spurs and under in game 1..

game one would be the easiest g for deeeetroit to steal; but i think the rest has helped duncan and spurs...spurs can play defense as well as pistones..in fact san antone can shut you down for 6-8 mins' and put themselves up by 10

love the unders

game one under 176 bet it all

gl

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[/ QUOTE ]

This is clearly a scalf post. Welcome back.