A very fun and tough hand Party 10-20

[Jason Strasser]

Four handed. This hand is vs. teacuppoker who is a very aggresive player who I am very sure wins in this game. I respect his play but he is far from a nit.

I have $2300, he has me well covered. UTG folds, teacup makes it $70 to go on the button, SB calls I call with 7s6s.

Flop: [ 8c, 9h, Kc ]

SB checks I lead for $140 teacup calls sb folds.

Turn Tc. I check, teacup bets $400 I call.

River Th. I check and call $1200.

Results and thoughts to come later.

-Jason

[technologic]

several thoughts come to mind...

could be TJ or T7, but i feel like villain would not bet that much on the river with that kind of a hand...

another is AA with Ac, figuring you for AK perhaps.

there is a good possibility that villain saw the club as a good scare card against you, since you seem to have indicated on the flop that you had a somewhat made hand, and that he's following through on the river.

i believe that the latter is probably more likely which may have made you to call? hmmm

[muzungu]

Jason-

Damn, this is a tough one. Let's go street by street here.

Flop: ya, leading is good, check/calling and playing back on any 5/T/club might be worth considering.

Turn: OK, this is clearly the crux of the hand. My first thought is that any 7,J, Q or club will make a one card straight or flush here, that is not so good for you. I guess you are playing as if you are "drawing"- check-calling for a safe card and then hoping to pick off a river bet. This seems reasonable, but perhaps there is better.

I think my first thought here was to lead, hoping for a bluff raise. One big question with this plan is how you stand if he calls. This is roughly the same as check/calling, but I don't know which leaves you in a better place in terms of the river action. I guess I would probably go with whichever of the two seemed more consistent with eliciting a big river bluff.

River: well, i think you got what you were looking for here. I don't have a sense of what this bet means at this level, at my stakes this is usually a bluff. The thing is, the river compromised many of the made hands that beat you, so if he can make a full bet like this with QJ or a small flush that is a really ballsy play. I think he is gonna play a set faster on the flop. I call and expect to be winning maybe half the time. Perhaps less, but definitely enough to call. In terms of specific reads, I feel like the level of play here is high enough that you can't pin it down much further. I think you are gonna see something like:

flush: 25%
KT: 15%
flopped set/QJ: 10%
bluff: 50% (I don't see him betting any losers for value like this.)


Edit: arrgh, didn't realize we were 4-handed here. I guess that means he will bet the occasional loser for value, and be a little more willing to keep firing on the river with QJ/small flush. Sigh... read first, then think, then type.

-muz

[AZK]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see him betting any losers

[/ QUOTE ]

I see him betting a big K like this as the river now counterfeits 89.

[muzungu]

Umm, that is a silly reason to bet, if you put him on 89 he is not calling $1200, so why worry about that hand? Only worry about what he can call with.

[Jason Strasser]

Muz, nice post.

Here is the thing for me. The turn was a very interesting card. If I had bet the turn two things happen:

1) He may give up on a bluff or decide that his AK AA or whatever hand that I beat is no good.

2) He may be able to semibluff me off the hand.

If have to say, this, IMO, is not a very easy situation if I bet the turn and get raised. Yes its four handed, yes he's aggressive, but gosh if I lead turn and he called or even raised I still wouldn't have a great feel for where I was.

As the hand went, the river is real tricky. My opponent may value bet (esp 4 handed) many hands that he believes are good because the value of my hand is pretty well concealed. I have no doubt this bet could be a flush, but it could also be a bluff or AK or even AA. He probably doesnt think I'd check a flush or a boat or three of a kind even to him on the river in this spot. I tend to block a lot of rivers and he knows this.

Anyhow, this hand might've been easier if I had checked the flop and kept things under control with a pretty crappy draw.

-Jason

[Jason Strasser]

To echo muz, this logic makes no sense.

-Jason

[Rotating Rabbit]

Ok well i'll go out on a limb here:

Some very smart thoughts above. But I wanted to highlight one thing which concerns me: The T/images/graemlins/club.gif is the ultimate scare card for anyone who it didnt help. When hero check-calls this turn, villian should realise his bluff equity is zero for nearly all rivers. Two possibilities, either T/images/graemlins/club.gif helped hero in which case a river bluff has a very low % of success, or the T/images/graemlins/club.gif didnt help, but hero has a decent made hand he's probably not going to part with.

The T on the river does not give villian cause to believe his bluff equity has increased. Heros check-call-check looks massively likely that hero has a strong 2pair hand. But, and this is the crucial point, given that hero called the boogey turn, villian has cause to believe hero will call again. This does not look a smart place to bluff.

So in my opinion, the crucial question is: is villian value betting trip tens or AA? For an aggressive player 4-handed, semi bluffing 10J on this turn is all ok, and then he would have reason to believe he could value bet the river, with the bonus of disguise.

Unfortunately he would also play a flush the same way, and with two Ts on board, there are lots of combinations of the flush, and only two combinations of 10Js, and 6 of AA.

Its a close decision, and probably right about 30% of the time you'll win. So a fold/call on the river seems rather academic. I thought you played the hand well though. You got max-ahead/min-behind regardless of who won.

[AJo Go All In]

[ QUOTE ]
But I wanted to highlight one thing which concerns me: The T is the ultimate scare card for anyone who it didnt help. When hero check-calls this turn, villian should realise his bluff equity is zero for nearly all rivers. Two possibilities, either T helped hero in which case a river bluff has a very low % of success, or the T didnt help, but hero has a decent made hand he's probably not going to part with.

The T on the river does not give villian cause to believe his bluff equity has increased. Heros check-call-check looks massively likely that hero has a strong 2pair hand. But, and this is the crucial point, given that hero called the boogey turn, villian has cause to believe hero will call again. This does not look a smart place to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry, but this is basically complete gibberish.

[Rotating Rabbit]

okay, can you elaborate?

[barongreenback]

What bluffing hands could villain hold at this river, whether he decides to bet with them or not?

[muzungu]

[ QUOTE ]
When hero check-calls this turn, villian should realise his bluff equity is zero for nearly all rivers.

[/ QUOTE ]

At this level of play, I don't buy this.

Sure, calling the turn "threatens" to call the river. But if you always call the river when you call the turn and the river blanks, you are allowing villain to play almost perfectly on the river...

...at which point, hero would realize "hey, villain isn't bluffing the river anymore once I call the turn".

... and then hero starts calling the turn with mediocre made hands, knowing that villain will check behind when he misses and his 2 pair or whatever will hold up.

...and then villain realizes this, and starts bluffing once again...

And round and round it goes. As such, calling the turn and folding a blank river with a moderate made hand definitely has to be done from time to time.

-muz

[piki]

I dont like you giving up the lead on the turn. Why would the T scare you? Why does this card stop you from betting? Are you afraid of a flush? I would smell and trap and be weary of your hand at this point. I dont know this Villian, but I would assume since he is betting into you, you are beat. If he respects your play at all, your turn call should indicate you have somewhat of a hand.

Why not just post results in white with your original post? Why keep us hanging here?

I like your flop probe bet. I think this puts you in good position to stack someone. I would not give up the lead on thr turn because I refuse to believe he has me beat. I dont see the T as a scare card for any hand I am advertising, so I would lead out 2/3 the pot on the turn. He he raises me, maybe I get on the defensive, but I am not approaching the turn thinking I am behind.

[Rotating Rabbit]

Sure, absolutaly, but if villian is bluffing he needs hero to fold over 50% of the time on the river. Thats the requirement he needs to make a pot sized bluff. And 50% looks unrealistic.

[AJo Go All In]

But I wanted to highlight one thing which concerns me: The T is the ultimate scare card for anyone who it didnt help.

ok, i'm with you.

When hero check-calls this turn, villian should realise his bluff equity is zero for nearly all rivers.

what? total nonsense. what exactly does a "scare card" mean, anyway? if we are calling 100% of the time, we must not be very scared.

Two possibilities, either T helped hero in which case a river bluff has a very low % of success, or the T didnt help, but hero has a decent made hand he's probably not going to part with.

this is not an argument. you could say this same thing for any river in any situation in which someone check-calls the turn. in other words, more gibberish.

The T on the river does not give villian cause to believe his bluff equity has increased.

again, what? first of all you are not really thinking about this the right way. in general, a bluff is more likely to work on the river than the turn for reasons that have nothing to do with the specific cards that are on the board. that is simply that the guy bet again! so his hand is more likely to be stronger! it is a perfectly rationalizable play to call the turn here with a hand like say, KQ, and then check and fold a river some of the time. and this is true no matter what the river card is.

Heros check-call-check looks massively likely that hero has a strong 2pair hand.

two things, firstly, why do you think this? do you think check-call turn, check river is a particularly strong line? it's not. part of what makes this pot interesting is that j's hand looks a lot weaker than it is.
secondly, given the river all two pairs hands on the turn are now: 1) counterfeited or 2) full houses. in the first case, we obviously can be bluffed off the hand, in the second case, most of the time we wouldn't check it.

But, and this is the crucial point, given that hero called the boogey turn, villian has cause to believe hero will call again.

again, no, not necessarily.

This does not look a smart place to bluff.

this may or may not be true, but it surely doesn't follow from what you've said.

[AJo Go All In]

this is a good point and i was telling j before that this is what worries me. the problem is there aren't a whole lot of traditional "bluffing hands" the guy could have, i.e. missed draws. given that the river is a T specifically. because now all straight draws beat us. and obviously all flush draws beat us. so for him to be bluffing, he would have to have called the flop with something like A9 and then decided that he was up against a K that he could take the pot away from. or would have to have called the flop with nothing planning to take the pot away, less likely because he had a player behind him yet to act on the flop.

[hansarnic]

Given that it's 4-handed & he's good / aggressive I'm not sure about your line on the flop. Of course your lead may be a monster, but 4-handed it's more likely a medium-strength hand or draw that can't stand a big raise.

How often will he re-raise your flop lead with nothing?
How often do you fold if he puts in a decent re-raise?

If the answers are frequently and always then surely most times you end up paying $140 and not even seeing the turn.

[Rotating Rabbit]

Okay you've essentially said what some other dude said which was that hero could still fold the river. What I was/am saying, evidently not clearly enough, is that in situations when there is a check-call line vs a big bet on a board-defining turn, theyre more likely to call than fold a river bet. Thus making a bluff on the river a bad play.

Obviously firing a second barrel represents a stronger hand. But transforming the origin, if this phrase means anything to you which I suspect it wont, the river card has not helped bluffing chances.

And obviously by strong 2pair I meant AA or strong K improving to Aces up/kings up on the river...

But more than anything else dude, stop being so goddam rude!

[jayheaps]

I would have check raised the turn. I think the semi-bluff is very likely and you need to charge the draw. If he has AA or AK, you probably arent getting any more $$ out of him anyway.

[theBruiser500]

i don't like this hand at all. on the flop, the texture of that flop in a 3 way pot you have to check or bet more, as it is you are just value betting for them. on the turn i don't like the check at all, you said he migt give up on a bluff he was going to make but what are you talking about, he raises preflop, board is K98, he calls a flop bet and you think he's bluffing. he also calls flop with a guy to act behind him

[theBruiser500]

you are paranoid and don't give anyone credit for a hand ever. this is the same thing in all your posts

[sirtimo]

would Villain play A /images/graemlins/club.gifT this way?

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
you are paranoid and don't give anyone credit for a hand ever. this is the same thing in all your posts

[/ QUOTE ]

i think jason's image vs your image has alot to do with this, though.

but this is true.

[Jason Strasser]

Brusier,

You may have a point about me being paranoid in some of the hands I post here. I dont think its fair to judge my play in general by hands i post here. Obviously the hands I post here are the ones I'm not sure about my play, so I kinda appreciate what you are saying in a way.

This opponent always humps pots off me. He's a good shorthanded player. He's real capable of calling my bet on the flop with garbage or a weak holding and trying to push me off the pot later. I'm not sure why you think I'm being paranoid by just accepting this fact. We are shorthanded here.

With regards to the hand, I dont understand your comment about the texture of the flop. I'm not sure about why I have to bet more, but I would appreciate it if you explained it to me thoroughly. You are the first player to mention it and Ive asked quite a few good players about this hand.

What would be your plan for this hand?

-Jason

[NegranuFan]

When you take the lead from him off the flop and he calls, I feel he is representing either a medium-Strong K, or even trips.
Once you check the turn, it looks weak so he could be betting with pretty much anything, but I think he feels that 1 pair is good... until you call. (I personally would have raised all-in here... hard to put the guy on QJ, and I hope he has trips and calls, in which case I do get blooped on the river..)
Once you call, that looks like either a slowplay of a monster(QJ getting lucky after a pot steal attempt on the flop), or, most likely, bottom 2 pair. Once the river comes with the paired board and the flush, he feels that maybe he has counterfeighted you. Its hard to figure for the straight, but the bet sizeis good because the worst you can call with here is a straight. Either way teh bet relative to your stack size suggests taht he feels he is good with the counterfeight, and wouldn't be too afraid of an all-in, but he would RATHER you not call.
Now, unfortunately that does not give you a whole lot of information but it does seem weak to me. Id call and expect to see either JT, like was mentioned b4 or Kx, however I wouldn't be overly surprised to see 88 or 99 (give you the lead, take it back on the turn to end the pot, bet once improved, and beating straight and flush draws...).
Either way it doesn't seem like too much of a flat bluff.

not the graetest analysis anyhoo but I still call.
So when are you going to post that he hit quads? lol

[muzungu]

c'mon strassa, I wanna know what happened here.

[Jason Strasser]

Oh.

MHIG. He had a very funny played AA here with no club.

-Jason