Turn pot odds decision

[SGS]

I have AKo (no heart) in the BB of a 5/10 six max game at party. I raise two limpers and theres 3 players to the flop.

Flop [ 7h, Jc, Qh ]

I bet and am called in both places.

Turn [ 3h ]

I check and the first limper bets, other limper calls. Call or fold?

SGS

[cmwck]

3 outs to the gutshot, no more than 3 more for your two overcards. So, 6 outs getting 6.5:1 odds to call.

Looks like its a marginal call. But since you're closing the action I'd probably call.

[SkittleBrau]

You don't say if one of your cards is a heart. If you have a heart, then I would call. Otherwise I would muck.

[Stefan_K]

I would have bet the turn, but as the hand was play i would have called the turn bet.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't say if one of your cards is a heart. If you have a heart, then I would call. Otherwise I would muck.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have AKo (no heart)

[/ QUOTE ]

[joker122]

i think check-folding, check-calling, and bet-folding are all going to end up showing about the same EV: minimal.

[Jonny Melon]

Here's a question: If the river is the K /images/graemlins/heart.gif, the first limper bets, and the second limper folds, are you calling? The answer to that should tell you what the right line is.

Jon

[StellarWind]

The decisive factor IMO is having to play the river from first position. I fold but would call from the button.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's a question: If the river is the K /images/graemlins/heart.gif, the first limper bets, and the second limper folds, are you calling? The answer to that should tell you what the right line is.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't understand your point.

I think we all agree that your hand is worth very little when K /images/graemlins/heart.gif hits. Even if this call is correct the +EV associated with this call opportunity is so slight it wouldn't influence my turn decision.

We have seven real outs of uncertain value and that is the key issue. I would also take a small EV allowance for two possibilities:

1. One of my three heart "outs" hits and it goes check-check-check-MHIG.

2. Everyone is drawing and it goes brick-check-check-check-MHIG.

You do pick these pots up from time-to-time and I would keep going if I thought the decision was otherwise very close. But the seven real outs look more like five and trying to make money on the river when I improve is going to be very tough.

Notice that if you had the button both your implied odds and your chances of scoring a free showdown pot would greatly improve. It would be worth pushing to stay in. [To make a point I'm ignoring the fact that the meaning of the turn bet and call would be much more ominous if I hadn't checked in front of them. Humor me.]

[tighterr]

These cannot be counted as full outs because an out is a card which will you win you the hand for certain and with a possible flush these cannot be considered outs for sure. Fold the hand before your dead money.