Retarded Hand 30/60 PS

[theBruiser500]

My plan was to value bet both of them, and if MP2 raises turn then fold. Should I fold when UTG raises though, it's kind of fishy that he limps there (AT AJ A9s?) and plays like this.

PokerStars 30/60 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (10.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.75 BB

[tomahawk]

I don't think you can fold this. It looks like one out of three things. AA that didn't want to limp-cap for deception purposes, a loose 33 UTG limp, or Axs (possibly ATo and AJo also, as you mentioned.

I think the chance of it being the latter is too big to fold this hand. You only have to be good about one in five, spend the 2 BBs and look him up.

[theBruiser500]

...

[Jeff W]

I don't like your turn plan. Isn't a stars 30/60 player capable of raising you w/ a middle pair for a free showdown?

If you are unsure of the strength of your kicker, I prefer to call the turn and bet the river.

You should not fold to UTG's turn raise/river bet. He hasn't shown enough strength to convince you that he has AQ+.

[theBruiser500]

He hasn't shown enough strength to convince me of AQ+ really?? 3 bets me preflop, bets flop, 2 opponents, ace hits (soething me or other guy could easily have) and he raises me on the turn. looks quite strong. as to your "call turn and bet river", i think he will check behind on the turn a lot and i lose value

[Jeff W]

I'm confused. The pre flop 3-better folded the turn.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
as to your "call turn and bet river", i think he will check behind on the turn a lot and i lose value

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're talking about MP2, then I am not worried about him checking behind. If he has a middle pair, I expect him to bet it very often. If he checks behind on the turn, he will often pay off a river bet. If he has something like KQ, then he won't call the turn anyway and he might bet it--if he improves on the river, he may call your river bet. If he has a better hand than you, then you will often induce him to call instead of raise and save a BB.

[roy_miami]

Is this flop call standard? I normally just give up with unimproved AJ to a 3-bettor when I miss. Do the backdoor draws make this a call or do you always call looking to spike an Ace or jack on the turn?

[theBruiser500]

you could do some math on te hand, figure out pot odds and his range of hands and see if is hould call with AJ there...

[1800GAMBLER]

I play it the same and agree with your thoughts to Jeff. I do think you are under estimating the % of the time a 30/60 player does a very stupid free showdown play with a pocket pair here though. Happens a lot but not huge, i imagine it's a mix of frustration, 'he might fold' and 'he might be bluffing with a pocket pair' all of which are pretty crappy reasoning.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
you could do some math on te hand, figure out pot odds and his range of hands and see if is hould call with AJ there...

[/ QUOTE ]

give me his range here and i'll do it.

[Jeff W]

Do you think he should fold to the turn check/raise or river bet from UTG? It seems to me that this line doesn't imply that UTG can beat AJ &gt;5.4/6.4 times.

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think he should fold to the turn check/raise or river bet from UTG? It seems to me that this line doesn't imply that UTG can beat AJ &gt;5.4/6.4 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

MP2 would def play AQ AK like that. So that's 16 times you lose. Assuming KK QQ JJ TT is his pocket pair range that's 24 combinations, your showdown odds are roughly 5:1, gotta win 1/6.

16 times he's legit, so he needs to be bluffing 16 * 1/6, or 2.6 combinations to break even. so if he has 24 combinations of hands to bluff with so, he only needs to decide to bluff 1/10th of the time with KK QQ JJ TT for you to break even.

man, i made that harder than it need to be, but the result is shocking. so it def looks like a call.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 would def play AQ AK like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

MP2 folded to the turn bet--I don't think he would play AQ/AK that way. I think you're confused about who raised the turn because there is no way that AK-AQ, KK-TT is UTG's hand range.

Your analysis is still useful for the situation where MP2 raises us instead of folding--though I think it's even more favorable if you included splitting/drawing out chances.

[1800GAMBLER]

Jesus why do i bother:


BRUISER:
[ QUOTE ]
My plan was to value bet both of them, and if MP2 raises turn then fold.

[/ QUOTE ]


YOU:
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like your turn _plan_. Isn't a stars 30/60 player capable of raising you w/ a middle pair for a free showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]

NOTICE BRUISERS _PLAN_ HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH UTG SINCE HE DOESN'T MEANTION HIM SO WHEN YOU REPLY WITH THAT IT IMPLIES THAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT MP2

[Jeff W]

You are out of line, man. In the post you quoted earlier:

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think he should fold to the turn check/raise or river bet from UTG? It seems to me that this line doesn't imply that UTG can beat AJ &gt;5.4/6.4 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

I specifically reference UTG in my question and note that he check-raised.

And now you condescend to me when I point out that your reply is talking about MP2 and not UTG? Bullshit. I even respectfully noted that your analysis was useful when discussing the situation where we are raised by MP2 instead of when he folds.

[1800GAMBLER]

Fair call my quote was wrong. He def should not fold to the other guy.

[diddle]

[ QUOTE ]
Should I fold when UTG raises though, it's kind of fishy that he limps there (AT AJ A9s?) and plays like this.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hell freaking no.