Thoughts on NFL Round 2

[Big Al]

Well, went 1-1 this weekend but won a fair amount overall as I went heavy on the Niners/Giants game. Everyone says the Giants choked but they covered the spread and thats the bottom line. The way I saw it, basically with the plus 3 I was in the drivers seat all the way in that game, with the worst possible result at the end being a tie. I'll take that everytime. If you ask me, the Niners choked by not covering. Anyway, onto this weeks games.

Pitt at Tenn, Titans minus 4. I like Tenn in this spot, though not huge. They seemed to be playing great ball at the end and, as I stated last week, I dont think too highly of Pitt. I think Tenn minus 4 is the play but dont go overboard.

Atlanta at Philly, Eagles minus 7 1/2. Atlanta is playing their third road game in a row, thats a killer. I questions the Eagles offense though with the QB situation. I think 7 1/2 is a bit high but I give the edge to the Eagles based on the Falcons playing their 3rd straight road game. I am staying away from this one but if you feel you must play it, I would say take Philly and give the 7 1/2.

SF at Tampa, Bucs minus 4 1/2. This is the game that I am going to bet heavy this week. Gruden, with the extra week off will have this team primed and ready to go. I think they will cover fairly easy. I like the Bucs at minus 4 1/2 a lot.

Jets at Oakland, Raiders minus 5 1/2. Hard to bet against the Jets the way they are playing. Still, going to Oakland against a solid group of veterans is a tough task. I am staying away from this one, could go either way.

Kind of similar to last week, playing one game light and one game heavy.

Look forward to your thoughts/comments.--Big Al--

[Clarkmeister]

Philly/Atl - I like the Falcons here. 7.5 is simply too much to lay against a team that has been blown out only once all year. The falcons D has been playing respectably, and a rustyand gimpy McNabb really doesn't scare me. Vick just seems to find a way and do what is needed. If their O line plays like it did last week, they win the game. Of course, Philly's D is light years better than GB's, so easier said than done. I still take the points.

Ten/Pitt - I love Tennessee here. Pitt really has been overrated all year, and their defense continues to be exposed against teams willing to throw the ball. Tennessee dominated the regular season game, leading 31-7 with 5 mins to go in the 4th quarter and I don't see any reason why they won't repeat.

TB/SF - I think the Bucs are simply the better team here. The points scare me a little, but I certainly can't bet on Frisco. Slight lean towards Tampa.

Oak/Jets - Same basic line as when these two played earlier in the year in Oakland. The Jets could have easily won that one and they are playing even better now. I have lots of respect for the Raiders, especially at home, but I think the Jets are the play here. They shouldn't be getting 5.5 from anyone in the league right now.

gl

[MtSmalls]

I'll throw in my two cents worth, and thats about all its worth. I am a big Steelers fan and should have been chugging antacids instead of beer yesterday. That being said, I don't think you can "Love" Tennessee here. Yes they got blown out in the last meeting, but both teams are better now than they were before. Maddox makes mistakes, but keeps on throwing and throwing on target. In the earlier game he tossed 3 INT's before being injured. I don't expect that to happen again. The Steelers can put up 20-30 points on anyone right now. The only question is can they stop anyone right now. I would (and will) stay away from this game entirely....

[Big Al]

Clarkmeister-dont know if you know this, but the one game the Falcons were blown out in-it was their third road game in a row.

[scalf]

/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif i feel very strongly that pitt -4 and tampa -4.6 are magor wagering opportunities...fine..rule em out..or one if ya want...but a well rested home team with a better record...playing teams which expended a huge effort to get there...well..it's a major opportunity..jmho..gl /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[Wildbill]

Just as much as round one usually favors the dogs, round two strongly favors the favorites. That bye makes it even stronger. Key reason is its desperation time so the number doesn't become a factor as good teams show no mercy here, especially with rest and the anticipation they build up not playing for a week. So I advise you to have very strong feelings about a dog before taking them because likely they have to have a good chance to win outright to get you the cash. Avoid betting value in this particular round because it generally dosen't matter.

My view is Tampa is strongest play of the playoffs as an extra week is exactly what they need. Niners don't get a crowd to feed off of here and I see them going real quietly. Probably same for Steelers as comeback winners often just falll apart early next week and NFL playoffs are not the time to fall behind in, especially on the road. Notice most big comebacks are at home. Jets I give a better shot to as they didn't work hard last week after early going. Falcons look overmatched, Eagles should get a big win.

[Clarkmeister]

Al -

Just my personal opinion, but I think that the result of that game had more to do with their opponent than the 3rd consecutive road game. 3 in a row on the road definitely isn't a good thing, but Tampa had already beaten them on their home field. It's not surprising then that they would blow them out in Tampa. Plus, their D simply matches up beautifully to stop Vick.

Frankly, I don't know that any team left should be laying more than 7 vs any other team left. These teams are all just too close. Lets be honest - none of these teams are great teams.

Now, Philly's D is no slouch, but I simply don't think its a good bet to lay more than a TD against this team. Remember, no one had ever won a playoff game in Lambeau before either. They didn't just win, they throttled them.

[cheech]

>Plus, [Tampa's] D simply matches up beautifully to stop Vick.<

So does Philly. Same kind of athletic quick defense. Will stack the line of scrimmage, play man. Philly's 2 pro-bowl corners have excellent matchup.

>>Frankly, I don't know that any team left should be laying more than 7 vs any other team left. These teams are all just too close. Lets be honest - none of these teams are great teams.<<

The only reason it is 7 and not more is because of last week's win against an absolutely dead Packers team. This should be a blowout. Philly wins by double digits.

Don't be a bonehead here. Atlanta is simply not that good, and Philly has the Defense (I think there is Tampa and Philly and then a big dropoff between anyone else in the league) to completely shut down Vick. I dont see the Falcons scoring more than 10 points.
I agree with Wild Bill - blowout.

More things to consider:

1) Reid is undefeated in prime-time (8-0 or 9-0, something like that)
2) Reid is undefeated after a bye-week. The Eagles simply out-gameplan people.
3) The Eagles haven't had two losses in a row in a couple of years.
All 3 of these trends point to an Eagles blowout. Don't burn your money on the Falcons!

(was that clear)

-Freddie Fry

[Clarkmeister]

I think I acknowledged Phillys D in my post.

"Atlanta's not that good"

Agreed. Neither is anyone else remaining IMO. I think one can argue which is the best of the remaining 8 teams all day long. Personally, I think Philly is the best by a hair over Oakland and the Jets, but its not like its a blowout.

As for your trends, I tend not to put a lot of stock in historical trends. I remember hearing all last week that GB was like 20ish and 0 in home playoff games and Favre was like 30ish and 0 in sub 34 degree weather. Ooops.

Bet Philly if you like them. I'll take the 7.5 with a underrated team against what I think is a suspect Philly team with a rusty and gimpy QB. As much as I respect wildbill and Big Al, I just don't see how any remaining team can lay more than 7 vs any other team. OTOH, I think Tennessee will beat Pitt handily, so hows that for consistency in opinion. /forums/images/icons/smirk.gif

[Trefo]

How do you not take the Jets.
They have a qb who can go into the black hole and not get rattled. Curtis Martin is back and the defense is pressuring the qb. I would definitely pick the Jets in this game because they will win the game outright. 5 1/2 is way too many pts to give the hottest team in football...i don't care where they playing.
J-E-T-S
Jets jets jets

[Wildbill]

Once again you are getting trapped in value, but value doesn't make much of a difference in this special occasion. This particular week is when favorites generally roll or get beat outright. Remember its the playoffs so teams play differently than they do in the regular season. They hit the panic button sooner and do things that get them into the game sometimes, but more often than not just get them blown away more. What makes this week even more special is the bye. Not only the week off, but an even more special case. The rested team is almost always a better team that had to wait a week to get on the field. They obviously have a great shot at winning a championship as determined by their top two spot in the conference. So they are just dying to get out on the field and put a lick on someone and serve notice that they are out to win it all. There really is no better situation in sports for the blowout. Once in awhile a team falls on its face, but in general the records show the home teams are the clear way to focus here and only if you think you have a team you like to win outright should you consider the points. An even better spot then is to take the money line. In any event I just think its not a wise move to take a team for what you feel are a few extra value points here and hope they keep it close. Next week its a whole different scenario, but simple formula that works most years is dogs round one and home favorites round two. I can't remember in the last few years how many times people got excited for "inflated" spreads on teams off nice wins in round one only to see road dogs get stomped on. Its hard to underestimate the value of a week off at this time of year, a week off from playing a winning team no less. The Jets are the only team I think have a chance to win this week, but I am not that convinced of it. Coming off two big wins at home isn't a good spot to back a team as they go on the road, but I do acknowledge that the way the Raiders have been inconsistent on offense that the door is open to a bad game and an upset. Otherwise I beg to differ, the top 4 teams are much better than the other 4 teams right now, maybe an exception for the Jets is warranted. They aren't guaranteed to win, but they clearly are better teams and deserved their 1 or 2 rankings.

[Clarkmeister]

Wildbill -

I appreciate the thoughtful response.

Two thoughts. First, I personally don't feel that historical trends matter much anymore. The league has changed dramatically in the last 3 years as half a decade of salary cap finally hit every organization. As an example, either the Cowboys or 49ers of the early-mid 90's would decimate any team playing right now. The teams that get byes simply aren't that much better anymore. To me, this is made clear by the fact that teams are capable of falling from the #1 seed to the #3 or #4 seed in the last week of the season.

Secondly, if what you are saying is true, then one is guaranteed of a long term profit, no? Simply bet the money line on the dog and lay the points on the chalk in every single round 2 game.

[cheech]

If you really think Atlanta is not that far from Philadelphia talent-wise, go throw away your money.

Green Bay was decimated by injuries to make their talent much closer.

-Freddie Fry

[Hobart]

I am a Steeler fan/idiot also. Where did their secondary go? what is left of it I should say. Maddox can look great if he stays away from goal line interceptions. Lets not depend on Hank Poteat. I'm staying away from this game bet wise.

[Hobart]

Although I am not a Jet fan the points look good in this game. Last week they looked like they were playing with supreme confidence including the QB ( kinda like the Pats last year ). Take the Jets and the points.

[Clarkmeister]

The Steelers are another example of the parity between the remaining teams. While I like the Titans in this game, it was only a few weeks ago that Pittsburgh marched into Tampa and dominated a game that was damn important to the Bucs.

The Pitt secondary has been problematic all year. The weakness was shown early on against NE and OAK and the game last week shows those holes haven't been fixed yet. Fortunately for them Tennessee isn't exactly the most prolific passing attack left.

gl

[Wildbill]

Teams off 40 point shutouts are usually terrible bets, especially facing rested quality teams. I admit the Jets look good emotionally, just this looks too situationally terrible to get excited about them. I think if you really like them take a small flyer on the money line and hope for the best. I don't see value in the points at all and can't think of a much worse technical situation to be in. Not that I think the Raiders are that much better, just I am sure there are better opportunities to make money out there.

[Wildbill]

Nothing is 100% or even 70% in this business. Its good that you are acknowledging the things that can go wrong and still like a side. If only I could teach a lot of people how to do that...

[Raken]

***Once in awhile a team falls on its face, but in general the records show the home teams are the clear way to focus here and only if you think you have a team you like to win outright should you consider the points.***

That's right, ClarkMeister. Here are the numbers for the last 3 years in the semi's. Margin of victory:
2001
14 by Dog
3 by 3 pt Fav
17
28

2000
18
27
14 by Dog
10

1999
3 by Dog
1 by 5 pt Fav
55
12

In each of the last 3 years, the home teams went 3-1 SU. In those 9 games the home team went 7-1-1 ATS.

So, historically, the best play is to pick a home team and lay the points.

Raken

[Clarkmeister]

Good post.

So the actual ATS record of the home teams in Rd 2 over the last 3 years. is 7-4-1. A few thoughts:

1. The problem we have with a lot of analysis like this is the fact that the sample size is simply too small.

2. The key here (for me) is to determine if the points come into play for the dog few enough times that one can turn a profit simply by betting both sides. If the points come into play sufficiently few times then laying the points on the chalk and betting the money line on the dog is a +EV proposition.

In the examples above, the player would lose both bets once in the 12 contests and half his bet in one other. so we would need an average M/L on those 3 dogs of about +220 (rough estimate) to turn a profit. Pretty clearly that would have been the case over this timeframe, but it is close.

[Clarkmeister]

"Its good that you are acknowledging the things that can go wrong and still like a side. "

Heh, anyone who thinks that its not possible that their opinion is wrong is fooling themselves. Add to that the fact that there is simply a huge amount of short-term luck in this stuff and I really don't see a reason to get all worked up about an opinion.

Recent example: I liked the under in the BCS title game. I had the right side. I lost. Stuff happens, and anyone who doesn't think so isn't being honest with themself.

[Raken]

***1. The problem we have with a lot of analysis like this is the fact that the sample size is simply too small.***

Granted, but you have to go with what you've got. It's better than not having any indication. Additional stats:

1998
20
35
2 by 3 pt Fav
10

1997
16
14 by 14 pt fav
4 by dog
1 by 7 pt Fav

1996
3 by Dog
21
25
One game had a home dog

Home Fav SU: 9-2 cum. 18-5
Home Fav ATS: 6-4-1 cum. 13-8-2

When the home fav won the game 14 of 18 times it was by double digits. Combine that with 13-8 ATS and you have a good indicator of where to start to look for winners.

Raken

[Wildbill]

Lets face it, we both live in the town where there is aren't too many hedged opinions /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

When someone accepts the potential for loss and yet still thinks the odds are in their favor, that is a guy I start believing in. That is what our old buddy Fezzik wrote to me in an email before deciding to go pro, he said he had a nice job, but was bored and wanted to do something else. He admitted he might fail and wasn't 100% convinced it was the thing to do, but he had confidence that he could work at it and make it right. If only more people showed that trait sports betting would be a hell of a lot tougher!