Question about variance?

[KyleH186]

I know ROI can be all over the place, however should my ITM ever be a significant amount lower than my average over a small stretch of say 100 tournies?

I realize how incredibly small the sample size is but usually when im running cold my ITM stays at least within a few % points of 40-45%. Over my last 100 tournies it has been 30%.


Sorry to make a post like this, i know how unpopular they are, but they usually deal with ROI, not ITM.

[The Yugoslavian]

Meh.

[ QUOTE ]

I just get high and play.


[/ QUOTE ]

-- Frozen

Yugoslav

[wulfheir]

I have tracked about 200 SNGs, my ITM has always been in that 40-45 range, but my ROI has been all over the place.

[mosdef]

Yes ITM is more stable.

Take somewhat typical distribution of finishes for a good player.

1st:15%
2nd:10%
3rd:15%
OOM:60%

Let X equal the random variable equal to 1 if you ITM, 0 otherwise. Let Y equal the random variable equal to your ROI in a tournament. Calculate the variance of both. Variance of Y is much higher.

You can repeat the exercise with cumulative winnings and ITM finishes after n tournaments, to answer you actual original question.

[pergesu]

I had a 400-game stretch with a -ROI. Sucked balls. Had a solid 24% ROI for the 800 games before it, and have recovered well over the most recent 300.

Maybe I suck, maybe I'm lucky, but the best players (of which I'm not one) all say that shitty runs are inevitable.

Don't sweat it, just get high and play /images/graemlins/smile.gif

edit: And to answer your question a tad better after rereading it, my ITM dropped from like 42% to 26% or something. Again, not saying it was just a bad run, but if you do run bad for a while, it's gonna hurt a lot.

[FieryJustice]

This [censored] has been happening to me lately. I was starting to think that I suck then I realized that I lose almsot every coin flip i take. It is crazy, but thats how it is. I went from 20% roi down to 5% and am now slightly above breakeven, like 1% roi over my last 300 or so games. Needless to say, it sucks. Losing to a 3 outer on the bubble every time will make you lose. /images/graemlins/smile.gif