CEV and $EV, do people generally agree with Paul Phillips' model?

[A_PLUS]

I am creating a tool, where I can easily analyze final table situations when I am in all-in or fold mode. I was planning to use the method that Paul Phillips used in his analysis of the WPT championship "collusion" hand. Also, I am planning to exhand this past 3 players, so do you think it loses any value?

Here it is:

Three players (a, b, and c) remain in a tournament, with chip counts of Ca, Cb, and Cc, where T = Ca+Cb+Cc. The probability of player a finishing in each spot are estimated as follows:

P(a1) = Ca / T
P(a2) = P(a2/b1) * P(b1) + P(a2/c1) * P(c1)
P(a3) = 1 - P(a2) - P(a1)
where P(a2/b1) = Ca / (T - Cb)
and P(a2/c1) = Ca / (T - Cc)

Similar calculations apply to the other two or more players players.

[schwza]

you should do a search for icm. i think it may be the same as what you described but i'm not sure. icm seems to be the most popular model, but it also has some detractors. if you google independent chip model you get to a good site that dethgrind made.

[A_PLUS]

Yeah, I am pretty sure this is the same formula, from the ICM. I think the ICM is far from perfect, but definitely gives a decent approximation of results.

Especially if you dont look at the results in exact dollar figures, but more as something like utility (from econ). That way you can use the results to make decisions without relying on the exact $ figures attached.

[A_PLUS]

Thanks for the heads up, very good explanation given.