Folding an overpair

[wheelz]

UTG is 28/19/2...

Have only played a few hands with BB, but she is definitely loose-passive.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (12.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero folds.

[TStoneMBD]

yes i like it. if she is passive like you say she is then its a good fold.

[wheelz]

BB is the passive one, the one doing the betting is the TAG

[TStoneMBD]

in that case im a little confused in this hand myself. its a tough situation here because its pretty much correct for UTG to 3bet the flop with AK as hes up against 2 players and therefore if he has 10 outs his equity is huge plus he has the potential to make you laydown a hand like this on the turn.

the downside to calling down is that your equity isnt really all that great even if you are ahead. the bb may even have you beat at this point and if youre ahead then there are probably 15 cards that can hit the river to make you lose th e pot (3A,3K, 4-4, 5 outs for the BB). most tags also wouldnt play Ax like this also so that makes this holding more unlikely.

youre getting like 16:2 here (8:1) so your equity when ahead is about 5.5BB and your equity when behind is -2BB. your hand has to be good here more than 2/5 times to be profitable and i find that unlikely so i say fold.

[billyjex]

ick... i dunno man.

i want to get to showdown. people can overplay overcards, as well as the TAG could hold 88/99 here.

[stripsqueez]

if you were going to fold to a turn bet perhaps you should of capped the flop - i see lots of tight aggro players who virtually dont stop with AK until the bets get bigger - once you have surrendered the lead it is auto for the other guy to bet

folding an overpair is a big fold - i find it every now and then but only with a decent history supported read

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[spydog]

I agree with Strip. Cap the flop and see if UTG still leads into you on the turn. I doubt he leads the turn after your cap with AK/99/88 because your preflop 3-bet and flop cap means you are representing a strong overpair. If he leads the turn after your flop cap then a fold would be in order.

[wheelz]

But I think our reasonably aggressive UTG's preflop cap and flop 3-bet represents a strong overpair as well.

I've thought about capping here, but in the end I just decided to just try and save a SB. Obviously I'm not sure about this one.

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
But I think our reasonably aggressive UTG's preflop cap and flop 3-bet represents a strong overpair as well.

I've thought about capping here, but in the end I just decided to just try and save a SB. Obviously I'm not sure about this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think 1 SB in a 12BB pot is a good investment for informational purposes. Raising for information is probably highly overrated, but I think it applies here.

[djoyce003]

no way am i folding this. I'd call down.

[sinfulslick18]

if you do cap it on the flop, he should check the turn either way with ak, aces, trying to lure the c/r on the turn. you can then check the turn see the river for free.. he will probably bet out then on the river and you can call to see it for one bb.

-sinful

[imitation]

capping the flop makes this turn fold about a million times more logical, when you call the 3-bet you've basically said, I have overcards, they aren't as good as yours i'm giving up (not always sometimes you are going to call and raise the turn, to lock out BB, but you're obviously more inclined to do that on a more logically draw heavy board). Also if the BB has to call 2 more SB on the flop perhaps you get a better indication of how much they like there hand, but for one more SB they're calling everytime.

Add this all together and how easy the turn would be to fold after capping the flop, I think this is your mistake and not wether the turn fold after the way you played it is (it's probably marginally +EV to fold I'd guess w/out reads).

[TStoneMBD]

i feel foolish. everyone's line of capping the flop is much better than mine.

[wheelz]

Don't feel so bad, you were the only one who suggested BB might have us beat /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[imported_Robert Andersson]

a very good hand to study!

I think you have to able to trust your read to fold here.
OR as above mentioned cap the flop if you plan is to fold to a turn bet ui.

/Robert

[wheelz]

I realize that everyone is right, capping is better because it gives us information, which makes folding the turn easy to do. The issue I have with capping is that it likely slows down JJ or QQ, so now when those hands decide to check to us on the turn and river blanks, we lose at least 1.5 more BB... we're getting the wrong information if we're up against either of those hands.

The preflop/flop action from someone with TAGish stats is enough for me to believe TT is no good, but I realize that it's close and see why everyone wants to cap. I just felt like UTG's flop 3-bet was enough info for me, I didn't need to be bet into on the turn too. But maybe I'm too eager to fold.

[imitation]

Why would you bet the river if you are called after the flop cap on the turn blank???

[wheelz]

OK then 1.5 BB...

I don't know though, I think if I posted this hand but instead hero capped the flop, bet a blank turn, then checked behind on the river when a 2 fell, I'd hear about it.