is this as easy a fold as i think?

[DMACM]

Big stacked pushed, folded to me on the big blind, This is a good fold right? converters wrong button pushes everyone folds

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t980)
Hero (t1370)
UTG (t1910)
Button (t3740)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t300

[Isura]

I don't think so. This seems like an easy call IMO.

[DMACM]

really? does everyone feel that way? my thinking was that id be a coin flip. the pusher despite being big stack hadnt been aggressive hadnt pushed at all. However he showed T6 after i folded.

[Newt_Buggs]

against 95%+ of the players at your level this is a fold. You can only call this if you are confident that the BS is pushing almost any two.

[applejuicekid]

ICM says you need to win 63% of the time. So it depends on the pushers range. If he's pushing any two this is a call.

[TStokes]

I agree with folding I dont like risking coin flips on the bubble.

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think so. This seems like an easy call IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Why so many folders? The big stack is in an obvious steal situation for one, so that opens up his range, even though he's been tighter.

88 is a good and, and you only have 3xBB left (1xBB in) ... man, you gotta call.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with folding I dont like risking coin flips on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this for real? I can't imagine this is a winning strategy (avoiding coinflips on the bubble). I"m not being a smart ass, I'm just curious as to if this is the consensus on this forum.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
the pusher despite being big stack hadnt been aggressive hadnt pushed at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know. This sort of stuff is really helpful BEFORE everyone makes their initial post...

Still, easy call.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
against 95%+ of the players at your level this is a fold. You can only call this if you are confident that the BS is pushing almost any two.

[/ QUOTE ]

My game must be really off. I mean, really REALLY off.

[therock]

You are better than a coinflip. The other small stack has position on you, so stealing blinds is going to be diffcult. This is a good opportunity to double your chips, take it.

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

against 95%+ of the players at your level this is a fold. You can only call this if you are confident that the BS is pushing almost any two.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


My game must be really off. I mean, really REALLY off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold = Yes

Newt is surely correct if "your" level for OP is anything below $55 (and generally correct at $55). This is just a math question unless you are making a call for image purposes (which you should not be at the $6-$33 levels as you don't cross paths with the same players enough to make a difference especially if you practice minimal table selection).

If Villian's range is any 2, this is obviously a clear call. HOWEVER, if Villian is even somewhat selective this becomes a very clear fold (somewhat selective like say 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T9,98,87). $11-$55 Big Stacks are often far to selective here.

Note that if you switch Hero and SB stacks, this becomes a clear call. The driver here is SB's short stack. Also important is the position of the other medium stack in relation to Hero (although this is not contemplated by ICM, and ICM/Eastbay tool STILL indicates that this is a fold). Unless big stack is pushing quite liberally, this is a fold based on immediate math/ICM results and given future FE implications with stack sizes/positions.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
against 95%+ of the players at your level this is a fold. You can only call this if you are confident that the BS is pushing almost any two.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[schwza]

absent a read, i call here and with 77 also. given that the big stack has been passive, i guess folding is ok, assuming the icm number somebody else quoted is correct. you only need 40% equity to be neutral chipEV - you really need 63% for neutral $EV?

[Unarmed]

I like how NegativeEV drifts in once a week, makes a sick post, and then disappears. Post more please! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
absent a read, i call here and with 77 also.

[/ QUOTE ]

At the $11-$33 tables (marginal at $55's), this is generally not correct. I said some of this in my previous post, but the big stack is generally not pushing with a wide enough range of hands here to make this a profitable call at these levels. You would need a read to the contrary to make a 77/88 call correct. At the higher levels, most big stacks are correctly pushing very very liberally here which makes a call correct. Expected range of hands for pushing big stack is very important.

Also, the fact that big stacks are not active enough at these levels makes the other medium stack's position relative to Hero very attractive (Hero can steal at will because big stack is not taking away that opportunity by pushing first). Increase Big stacks range of hands to any 2 and this is a call- again, this is simply not the case in average at a lower level SnG. Hero's read in this case supports this for the hand in question.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="red">Yes!</font> This seems like an easy <font color="red">fold</font> IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Yugoslav

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
I like how NegativeEV drifts in once a week, makes a sick post, and then disappears. Post more please!

[/ QUOTE ]

EXACTLY! These two posts by NegativeEV in this thread are two of the most well thought out and explained bubble related posts I've read in a long time. From what I've seen at the 11s, in most cases, it would be wrong to put a big stack (even a huge stack) on any two, since they usually do not fully exploit their advantage. Relative chip positions (and my ability to steal later even as one of the medium stacks) plays into my thinking as much or more than the cards in my hand. My first thought in a spot like this is, "If I fold here, can I steal later?" Usually the answer is yes.

Anyway, add me to the list of posters hoping that NegativeEV posts more. From my standpoint as a solid 11s and 22s player, his are some of the most helpful that I have seen - very well explained, backed by the numbers, and also taking realistically into account the tendencies of the typical opponent.

[hansarnic]

Of course it all depends on villain's range but forget ICM you DO NOT need to be a 63% favourite to make calling here correct. You think if the situations are reversed these monkeys are folding 88? AT? KQ? Nope. Your steal equity is nowhere near as high as you'd like it to be in these things, so when ICM gives you a 'value' for folding the hand it's going to be too high if you are making decisions based on ICM and your opponents will call you down with anything.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course it all depends on villain's range but forget ICM you DO NOT need to be a 63% favourite to make calling here correct. You think if the situations are reversed these monkeys are folding 88? AT? KQ? Nope. Your fold equity is nowhere near as high as you'd like it to be in these things, so when ICM gives you a 'value' for folding the hand it's going to be too high if you are making decisions based on ICM and your opponents will call you down with anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you believe your opponents call too often, i think that argues for a fold here so you can likely get into 3rd quickly w/o a showdown.

[durron597]

This is close, and depends on your read of the big stack, and on the relative tightness of the SB and UTG - can you steal from them later?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, add me to the list of posters hoping that NegativeEV posts more. From my standpoint as a solid 11s and 22s player, his are some of the most helpful that I have seen - very well explained, backed by the numbers, and also taking realistically into account the tendencies of the typical opponent.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry to disappoint you guys. I have it on good authority that NegEV won't be posting as much as he should. It's too bad, he is a solid information source.

Scuba

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course it all depends on villain's range but forget ICM you DO NOT need to be a 63% favourite to make calling here correct. You think if the situations are reversed these monkeys are folding 88? AT? KQ? Nope. Your steal equity is nowhere near as high as you'd like it to be in these things, so when ICM gives you a 'value' for folding the hand it's going to be too high if you are making decisions based on ICM and your opponents will call you down with anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

This post is funny to me, in that your logic you're using for calling here is the precise logic you should use for folding. Perhaps if you reread your comments you might see...

Scuba

[curtains]

At a $215 this should be an easy call (because button should always raise any 2 there). At a lower game where you dont think they are raising any 2, which is quite likely the case, then folding should be fine.