Lucky or good? (hand feedback please)

[AndrewtheBold]

I think I played this right but I hate feeling like I got lucky. Would anyone care to comment on this hand?

$25 NL Hold'em - Tuesday, June 07, 21:02:11 EDT 2005
Table Table 37023 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: loafer18 ( $6.29 )
Seat 2: thecsm ( $28 )
Seat 4: Scott73299 ( $54.42 )
Seat 6: n0n4m3 ( $33.13 )
Seat 7: KidDerby ( $24.43 )
Seat 8: RCrawf010 ( $8.75 )
Seat 9: laszlo1 ( $49 )
Seat 10: MEGA001 ( $38.72 )
Seat 5: HERO ( $24.75 )
Seat 3: peytonethrid ( $0 )
HERO posts small blind [$0.1].
n0n4m3 posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Qc Qh ]
KidDerby folds.
RCrawf010 calls [$0.25].
laszlo1 folds.
MEGA001 calls [$0.25].
loafer18 folds.
thecsm folds.
Scott73299 folds.
HERO raises [$1.4].
n0n4m3 folds.
RCrawf010 folds.
MEGA001 calls [$1.25].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5c, 2c, 4h ]
HERO bets [$3].
MEGA001 raises [$8].
HERO is all-In.
MEGA001 calls [$15.25].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Js ]
** Dealing River ** [ Qd ]
MEGA001 shows [ 4c, 4d ] three of a kind, fours.
HERO shows [ Qc, Qh ] three of a kind, queens.
HERO wins $47.5 from the main pot with three of a kind, queens.

My reasoning: I raised preflop and he called. He has to expect me to play aggressively when rags flop. Thus if he flopped a monster (which he did), why would he not slowplay? His raise is too large for me to call with most hands. It's large enough that he could be semibluffing (any ace gives him at least a straight draw). Alternatively, he could be betting a vulnerable overpair. In either case, I like the all-in reraise. Am I crazy?

[nebben]

Yes.

[RiverTheNuts]

with stacks that short you cant get away from an overpair without a very strong read, he could easily have a 3 or any overpair below queens... push and hope he doesnt show you the bad news

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
with stacks that short you cant get away from an overpair without a very strong read, he could easily have a 3 or any overpair below queens... push and hope he doesnt show you the bad news

[/ QUOTE ]

the stacks were 100BB...easily large enough to get away from an overpair.

[sourbeaver]

What it all goes down to is the flop. Do you want to back that overpair with your stack ? If yes, then push. No sense in risking second guessing yourself on later streets.

On a board like that though, you're only beating a semi-bluff or JJ-TT.

[Guin]

You are indeed lucky.

I have been playing the NL25 at UB and have found that a low flopped set has to bet 2x pot in order to get flush draws to fold.

The range of hands that he could be on should include a set as the only thing he is doesn't want to see is your pocket 5's which isn't likely since you raised preflop.

I have been having lots of issues of how to deal with sets vs. flush draws as UB seems to enjoy putting them on river. Right now I 2x pot raise on flop and then push turn which has improved my win rate at these levels as I bust overpairs, busted flush draws, lower sets, for huge pots. I am sure that this won't work at higher levels but guys just hate to fold at this level.

Guys get great implied odds to call your pre flop raise with small PP as it is easy to get away from or to take down stacks.

Guin

[unlucky513]

i think you'd have to put him on a set on this flop. he limp/calls before the flop. on the nasty flop you bet, he raises. this is where you should/could get away from your hand. since you didn't, i think a better line would be to call the flop raise, see what he does on the turn... and either push/fold the turn.

yeah you got lucky, but so did he. nh.

[Guin]

I don't understand why you think the villian got lucky. He hit his 1 in 8 shot and got his money in with the best of it. If he missed I am sure he would have folded to the first bet.

Guin

[IbrakeFORrivers]

I think it was a 50/50. Depends on the read. Most likely, your move is textbook play for pocket pairs esp of the QQ KK AA variety. JJ be careful. More often than not, you'll win hands esp. 1v1 on the flop. In my opinion, I think THAT guy got lucky.