Premeditated bluff. A good one or just a reckless gambool?

[Tilt]

PLO 1-1. 5 handed.

I have been at the table 3 orbits with very little action so far. I have been quiet and passive, really no hands to play. Villain has been moderately aggressive postflop. Until this hand there had been no raises preflop.

My stack is about 95, Villains has me covered.

I am BB with 6D,5D,10H,JS. Villain raises to 3. I call.

Flop (pot = 7) 3C, QD, 7D

I check, villain bets 7, I raise to 21, villain calls.

Turn (pot = 49) Ks

I lead out for 49.

Thoughts? I was pretty sure he had aces, at least one suited. I called his preflop bet with the intent of representing trips if I hit any decent draws. Obviously after the flop call I was pretty unsure whether my diamond outs were good. But I figured I had at least 8 sparkling clean outs and possibly 9 more if my diamonds were good.

A good bluff or reckless, obvious bluff?

[Ribbo]

You wouldnt be calling that flop with KK, so I would have to ask myself did the king help you. If i had the ace high flush draw I would say no and call. If i just had bare aces I would probably fold.

[estuhl]

I think that this bluff is almost completely worthless. Looking at the line here, you've called the first raise you've seen at the table by a known aggressive player post flop out of position with a really marginal hand. I think this is a fairly easy pf fold. You check-raise a diamond flop with a gutshot and a low diamond draw. Your villain calls. At this point, I would be hard pressed to put the villian on anything but nut diamonds or a set. Turn is an offsuit king, which gives you a couple more straight outs. My major problem is that if the villian is holding nut diamonds, many of his probable raising hands with that holding will include high straight features. He might have picked up a second pair or duplicated some of your straight outs. Worst case scenario, you're betting into top set with some redraws. I think I release here.

[Tilt]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that this bluff is almost completely worthless. Looking at the line here, you've called the first raise you've seen at the table by a known aggressive player post flop out of position with a really marginal hand. I think this is a fairly easy pf fold. You check-raise a diamond flop with a gutshot and a low diamond draw. Your villain calls. At this point, I would be hard pressed to put the villian on anything but nut diamonds or a set. Turn is an offsuit king, which gives you a couple more straight outs. My major problem is that if the villian is holding nut diamonds, many of his probable raising hands with that holding will include high straight features. He might have picked up a second pair or duplicated some of your straight outs. Worst case scenario, you're betting into top set with some redraws. I think I release here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going with a read. My read was AA. I thought he'd limp KK, so the king didn't scare me.

I have no idea what his sidecards are. Obviously I worry that he has the nut diamond draw. I didn't consider whether he would have my straight draws duplicated, but I doubt it, more likely he has a draw that I don't.

I figured he would fold aces, even with a diamond draw, in this situation. I was right. I showed my bluff. I went on to win 4 buyins at the table when people started calling my big bets with weak hands.

I thought this was a good example of picking a spot, and also how important it is to make sure you don't give away a good read on your hand preflop.

[estuhl]

I'm just having a difficult time putting him on aces. There are a variety of hands that I raise with. Many of which you'd be in deep trouble with here. If it were a reraise, I'd agree more. Also, you have not seen him show down a raised hand and haven't mentioned pt stats or previous play experience with this person. That just makes me nervous, personally. Realistically, if I were villian, I'd either put you on bottom two with a oesd or top trips. I hate his line there. His play seems way more weak-tight than anything else.