Bet the river?

[iceman5]

$5/$10 NL (Hero $1100) (Villain $1200)
Villian just sat down and I dont know him. In the hand jst before this one he bet KJ into a AJ4 flop and called a healthy check raise. He hit a K at the turn and won.

Im in the BB with KJ. 4 limpers including villain who is on the button.

Pot is $50 and the flop is KT4. I check to see the action. It gets checked to the button who bets $40. I decide to call. Everyone else folds and were heads up.

Pot is $130. The turn is a 2. I check, he bets $50 and I check raise to $150. He calls.

Pot is $430. River is another King. I dont think he has a king but if he does, I can only beat K9 or lower. I think check/call a modest bet is better here than betting myself. He might call with a lower king but he also might bet it himself if I check. He probably wouldnt call a bet with AT but might bet it himself if I check. Agree or not?

[etizzle]

I like a bet here.

Instead of thinking about the hands that you beat, think about all of the Kx hands that will call you if you bet.

Considering he may very well call a 200ish bet with AT, I think you absolutely have to bet it here. The only hands you can lose to here are KT and KQ.

I would fire the 200 or so and probably not pay off a raise.

[iceman5]

Well if you think he would play K9 or K7..then he would play K2 or K4 also which beat me. If hes dumb enough to pay K9, what makes you think he wouldnt raise the river with K9 since he has trip kings?

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
He probably wouldnt call a bet with AT but might bet it himself if I check. Agree or not?

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt he's value betting AT on the river.

I'd prefer to lead the river about $200. If villian is fishy enough to call a healthy check-raise on second pair (described on the first hand), I think he'll call this bet with plenty of 2nd place hands here, but check behind many worse hands.

I'd also take a different line on the flop: I'd prefer to check-raise to $120, blow the other limpers away and lead 2/3 to 3/4 pot on the turn. I think I have the best hand, and I would prefer the other limpers with possible hands like AJ, AQ, QJ, J9 to fold in front of me rather than give them a cheap shot at getting a straight.

Garland

[iceman5]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He probably wouldnt call a bet with AT but might bet it himself if I check. Agree or not?

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt he's value betting AT on the river.

I'd prefer to lead the river about $200. If villian is fishy enough to call a healthy check-raise on second pair (described on the first hand), I think he'll call this bet with plenty of 2nd place hands here, but check behind many worse hands.

I'd also take a different line on the flop: I'd prefer to check-raise to $120, blow the other limpers away and lead 2/3 to 3/4 pot on the turn. I think I have the best hand, and I would prefer the other limpers with possible hands like AJ, AQ, QJ, J9 to fold in front of me.

Garland

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume if you play it that way and 1 of the limpers calls your check raise you are done withb the hand?

[etizzle]

ok so there are 4 hands that beat you, assuming he raises preflop with AK and would reraise the turn with TT or 44 (I think these assumptions are pretty safe). So KT, KQ, K4, and K2 beat you.

Lets say his range of hands is any K except AK.

There are 24 combinations of Kx where x does not equal 10, 4, 2 or Q.

There are 13 combinations of Ks that you lose to.

Therefore you should be ahead here ~65% of the time, and a bet should show profit.

Wether or not you have to pay off a raise is probably read depenedent, but I doubt he is that much of an idiot to raise again with K7 after all the strength you've shown.

If you add in the chance that he might call with AT I think you gotta bet it.

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
I assume if you play it that way and 1 of the limpers calls your check raise you are done withb the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, this all depends on the limpers and the turn card; however, in most instances, yes the cold-call screams a monster hand 80-90% of the time. This is why a check-raise is so valuable here. Not only do you have a sucker at the end willing to call a big check-raise on inferior hands, but you also get to define the other limpers' hands in case they want to play too. Calling the flop does nothing but encourage other limpers to call along with any piece/any draw.

However, a little knowledge goes a long way. If you know that one of the limpers will not slowplay big hands and will call on big draws like QJ (I assume the board is rainbow, so no flush draw) or with many inferior hands, then by all means lead the turn (of course if villian button also calls, it may complicate the issue as the pot swells, but I would probably stop putting money in the pot at *that* point as the odds that I'm beaten by at least one of my two opponents have greatly increased).

Garland

[captZEEbo1]

check-call works well. Some hand like QJ might bluff here, expecting your two lower pair just got busted. Does AT call the turn check-raise? I like check-call. It'd also be nice to know if flop is rainbow or not.

[iceman5]

Villian called a flop check raise with 2nd pair so I assume he would call with AT this time. Yes the board is rainbow.

I checked to him hoping he would take a stab at it but he didnt. He had K6

[piki]

What makes you so sure he has a K? Just from the other hand you posted, I see him calling your CR with a lot of hands. He could have a set and you will get sucked out, but [censored] happens. I like a value bet on the river, and would seriously consider a fold to a huge reraise since he has to know what your hand is.