Low set, lots of aggression on the turn.

[MarzH05]

Table hasnt been too aggressive pf, so I decided to limp with this hand. I have noticed villain get really aggressive when he thinks he has the best hand. From what I have seen, he does this with what is probably the best hand(hasnt been caught bluffing yet, but I have not played that many hands with him.) Normally I rr this flop with a set, but this time I decided to play it a little slow because the flop was not very scary to me. Instead, I decided to rr on the turn. When he came over the top I did not know what to think. Then he typed in the chat log "I could have the nuts". Which just made me instantly fold. Does anyone call this? I think this was played just like a 78, but what characteristics of a villain would cause you to call this, if ever? It just seems like this fold defeats the whole purpose of me limping with low pp. Lets say he did have the straight, and played it a little slower, I would have probably lost even more money. So how do you guys maximize your win/loss with low sets?


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.5 BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP3 ($37.5)
CO ($73.45)
Button ($14)
SB ($50.7)
BB ($49)
UTG ($66.2)
UTG+1 ($136.57)
MP1 ($55.1)
Hero ($49.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls $0.50, MP3 calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($2) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $2</font>, Hero calls $2, MP3 folds, SB folds.

Turn: ($6) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $46.5 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $62.50

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
No showdown. BB wins $62.50. </font>

[MarzH05]

Just saw that this hand is much like Allin3High's post(It wasnt at the top a minute ago). So I will read that and see what I can come up with.

[AllIn3High]

Actually this is a little different, it looks like BB bet an open-ended straight draw w/ 87 on the flop and hit on the turn. If hero had raised the flop the decision would have been closer - i don't mind the fold here even though villian could easily play two pairs like this.

I raise a flop like this every time, especially with 2 players left to act behind you - you're simply given them far too good odds to call with straight draws.

To answer you low set question - I usually don't try to minimize "my losses", I try to maximize my winnings, so I'll raise, re-raise and push most of the time. Set over set is rare and people overplay their hands far too often to fold sets most of the time.

[MarzH05]

It just seems to give away my hand too much to rr all the time with a flopped set after I have limped. Like I said, about 95 percent of the time I do rr though, just decided to switch it up on this flop that was not too scary. What other hands do you rr with on the flop to hide a set?

[AllIn3High]

Overpairs, draws (only with position), TPGK, two pair, all depending on my opponents standards for betting out.

[swolfe]

raise the flop

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
It just seems to give away my hand too much to rr all the time with a flopped set after I have limped. Like I said, about 95 percent of the time I do rr though, just decided to switch it up on this flop that was not too scary. What other hands do you rr with on the flop to hide a set?

[/ QUOTE ]

you should be raising the flop with more than just sets. raise with your strong draws as well.

[Jester999]

[ QUOTE ]
raise the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

With four guys in there limping around you must raise the flop. But since you didn't, I would have to have a VERY VERY VERY strong read on my opponent to lay this down.

Actually, at this level I was much into 'reading' but instead I'd insta-call and more often than not I'd be ahead. At this level if you never laid this kind of hand own you'd be +EV.

[snappo]

I would raise the flop.

[swedeD]

I think your read can be right. His chat talk is strange. Would he say that with two pair? I don't know, maybe, but most of the time people talk stuff like this, they want a call.

How well does villian know how you play? If he know your are really tight, he maybe is trying a move here, but I doubt that. If he is not stupid and don't have the straight, he most be afraid of the straight just like you. You limped PF, you called a bet after the flop that was giving you ok odds to draw, your reraise after the turn was pretty solid. There is much better spots to try a move against a tight player then here.


[ QUOTE ]

At this level if you never laid this kind of hand down you'd be +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I sure hope that. But I just don't want my flopped sets to be +EV, I want them to make big money in the long run. After all, they have to pay for all the hands when I don't flop a set with low/medium pp. A few laydowns with good hands can sometimes be the difference between making money and breaking even.

[Jester999]

[ QUOTE ]
I sure hope that. But I just don't want my flopped sets to be +EV, I want them to make big money in the long run. After all, they have to pay for all the hands when I don't flop a set with low/medium pp. A few laydowns with good hands can sometimes be the difference between making money and breaking even.

[/ QUOTE ]

What you just wrote doesn't make sense in reference to what I wrote.

[swedeD]

I reread your post. I don't suggest you should fold every time someone are raising you when there is a possible straight or flush, of course not. If you know you fold to many hands after making "reads", then insta-calling can be a good idea to start with.

But even if it's +EV to always call in this kind of situations, where you have flopped a set and face the possibility that someone has drawed out on you, it can be -EV playing your low pp because you don't make enough to cover all the times you don't flop a set. Making reads and fold some of your big hands are essential to make most hands +EV in the long run. That was my argument against your advice to insta-call. Why doesn't this make sense in reference to your post?

[Jester999]

I don't want to come off as arrogant or annoying as I'm up here to learn like everyone else. I am just starting to give advice on this forum and I don't want to give bad or dangerous advice. Some of the suggestions on some of these threads fall into that category. I'm not a great player, but I am a winning player who has played his way up from the $25 NL games to the $200 and $400 NL online games and I play regularly deepstacked in the 2/5 300 max buy in game in Shreveport. Okay, disclaimer done...:)

I think you're 'overthinking' here.

[ QUOTE ]
I sure hope that. But I just don't want my flopped sets to be +EV, I want them to make big money in the long run. After all, they have to pay for all the hands when I don't flop a set with low/medium pp. A few laydowns with good hands can sometimes be the difference between making money and breaking even.

[/ QUOTE ]


Alright, let's parse a bit. If I understand it correctly, +EV simply means if I make the same play in the same situation over time, it will show a profit. In the case, I believe it's that simple especially at this level which I think is VERY pertinent. Change just a couple of things like the level (e.g. $1000 NL) or the depth of stacks and I might change my thinking. I'm simply saying that over an extended period of time if our hero calls with his set in this situation he'll make money. Sure, on some occasions he'll be shown a higher set or a straight. But I firmly believe by trying to make a 'big laydown' in this instance he's got a better a chance of costing himself money. As experience improves and hand reading becomes sharper, I think it's possible to get away from dangerous hands in dangerous situations and increase EV. But here, I think you're going to make some huge fundatmental errors if you're not willing to go to the felt with this hand. That's why what you say doesn't make sense in relation to what I've said. The play is simply +EV or it's not. In this case, I don't think it's close. And I think you start messing with yourself, if you're trying to get away from THIS hand in THIS spot. I'm not saying you should never lay down a set. Again, it's just as simple as go the felt with THIS hand in THIS spot.

[ QUOTE ]
But even if it's +EV to always call in this kind of situations, where you have flopped a set and face the possibility that someone has drawed out on you, it can be -EV playing your low pp because you don't make enough to cover all the times you don't flop a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, I'm not talking about the other times. I'm talking about this particular instance. Read through the hand again. He's playing it against the BB. There's a very WIDE range of hands the BB can have that will make this move at the $50 level. He could have any two pair and is now speeding up because he fears a straight himself and a flush draw hit the board. Furthermore, how can he put hero on a set? He doesn't. So, will he flip 87 sometimes? Yup. Oh, well. Reload. But he'll also flip myriad other hands often enough that calling here will show a profit. By laying this hand down in this situation at this level against these types of players, I believe our hero is making a HUGE error. Not just a small error but a HUGE error.

I'll add this also. And you math guys let me know if I'm off. But considering the pot size and the amount our hero must call, he's got to be ahead in the hand a little more than 43% of the time to show a profit. I think he's ahead WAY more often than that. Actually, I don't even think it's close.

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
But even if it's +EV to always call in this kind of situations, where you have flopped a set and face the possibility that someone has drawed out on you, it can be -EV playing your low pp because you don't make enough to cover all the times you don't flop a set. Making reads and fold some of your big hands are essential to make most hands +EV in the long run. That was my argument against your advice to insta-call. Why doesn't this make sense in reference to your post?

[/ QUOTE ]

so, you're saying that with a specific read that this is a laydown? that's obvious...

but having that kind of read (chat notwithstanding) is almost impossible in this situation. looking at it discretely, with the play to the decision point, the hand, the board, the stakes, and the huge range of BB's possible hands, calling here is a must.

EDIT: i think the guy had J/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[PinkSteel]

[ QUOTE ]
...considering the pot size and the amount our hero must call, he's got to be ahead in the hand a little more than 43% of the time to show a profit. I think he's ahead WAY more often than that. Actually, I don't even think it's close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero has to call $36.50 to win $62.50, by my reckoning, which if that were all, would require being ahead 37% of the time (someone flame me if I missed).

But Hero also has 10 river outs and another 21% chance, if he is behind, to put Villain on super-monkey-tilt.

[Jester999]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero has to call $36.50 to win $62.50, by my reckoning, which if that were all, would require being ahead 37% of the time (someone flame me if I missed).

But Hero also has 10 river outs and another 21% chance, if he is behind, to put Villain on super-monkey-tilt.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoops. I was wrong. I was thinking hero had to call 46.50, but 36.50 is right and your numbers are correct. Heh, I was an English major in college. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

But I think we have figured out that in this spot this is an 'insta-call'. Somewhere the gurus from the High Limit forum are shaking their collective heads. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[swedeD]

Ok. I misread your post, and thought you where giving a general advice about this kind of situtations, not an advice for this particular situation. There are a lot of posts (and I have made some myself) that seems to been done just after a few seconds, post like "you have a 50/50 situtation here" without explaining any thoughts or math why the poster has made that conclusion.

I thought your post was one of those, but obviously I was wrong and you have made a lot of thinking before you wrote that post. Thanks for elaborating your thoughts!! I still believe though, considering Hero's read and villians chat talk, that this can be a spot where Hero can save a lot of his stack, folding to Villians push. But I will think trough this hand again. Maybe this is discussion can help me found one of my leaks...

[michaliv]

I would probably call here. There is a chance that he has AJ or maybe just hit J9. If he does have the straight you still have 10 outs.