AQo - OOP no pair

[donger]

Add this to the piles and piles of 'I hate playing overcards' posts that litter HU/SH.

Villain is 50.94/13/1.2 after only 54 hands.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero.. ? with the intention of ?


Final Pot: 6.50 BB

[zephed]

[ QUOTE ]
Add this to the piles and piles of 'I hate playing overcards' posts that litter HU/SH.

Villain is 50.94/13/1.2 after only 54 hands.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero.. ? with the intention of ?


Final Pot: 6.50 BB

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This is an awkward and common situation. I'm not sure why no one has responded. It's a pretty tough decision, imo. Maybe that is why no one has responded yet.

OOP on the river with the nut no pair against a loosey somewhat aggressive who has just called you.

Preflop I put him on:
AQ-A8, KQ-KT, QJs, QTs &amp; JTs (maybe), JJ-66.

He'd definitely cap Q's and up, probably Jacks, but I'll keep them in the list for now in case he likes to be tricky.
13% pfr is healthy aggression preflop, I'll estimate that he'll cap AK.

I like the 3-bet preflop.
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Flop: Easy continuation bet OOP.

On the flop I think he'd peel with any overcards, but raise medium over pairs, probably down to 9's.

We can eliminate 7's and usually J's thru 9's, because he's likely to play those more aggressively by now. With 8's and lower, he may just try to take it to showdown with a good hand paying as few bets as possible.

Flop range:
AQ-A8, KQ-KT, QJs, QTs, JTs, 88, 66.

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Turn:
You have a good bluff card, so I'd bet and hope to win it here. I'd really hate him to just call. I wouldn't mind bet/folding, as far as having to make correct decisions go.

He flat calls. I'd rule out AA-KK, AK, but may want to reinsert a PP lower than K's in. If they tried to slowplay the flop, they aren't very likely to raise the turn now that the K fell.

Any hand with a K will call us down, lower pairs, and flush draws. Sometimes naked aces. I won't eliminate any aces yet.

Undercards are probably folding now, but we'll get some oddball calls here and there.

Range:
AQ-A8, J/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif, KQ-KT, TT-88 (discount since they will often be raised on flop), 66.
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River range:
AQ-A8, J/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif, KQ-KT, TT-88 (discount? since they will often be raised on flop?), 66.


Here's my range that he'll call a bet with:
AQ-A8, KQ-KT, TT-88, 66.

You lose against/combos:
KQ-9
KJ-12
KT-12
TT thru 88-14 (discounted by 4)
66-3 (discounted)

Total of 50 combos that beat us.

You win against/combos:
AQ-4.5 since we split
AJ-12
AT-12
A9-8
A8-4 (discount, since it's not happening like this often)

Total: 40 hands we beat, and I think I was generous. What do you think of these ranges, let me know.

We should check then. I don't think we'll ever bluff and win the pot. Should we call, or fold getting 7.5:1?

If he rarely bluffs, we can lay it down since we are only getting 7.5:1 on a river call. If he is very aggressive and probably bluffs enough, I think this is a close call. Otherwise, I'd say fold.

He will probably check behind his lower pairs in fear too, so we save bets sometimes if we check. Gives us more reason to fold river.

PS, I'm a fish who doesn't like to be bullied, so I'd probably check-call.

[spydog]

You can't check-fold the river. I think he raises the flop with an overpair and/or raises a K on the turn. Either way, I think you would have heard from a better hand by the turn. The river card didn't change anything, so I think you are ahead of a weaker Ace. Maybe he has a PP and was planning to raise the turn but feared the King. He won't raise the river with that pocket pair if he didn't raise the turn, but he will bet if checked to. So, the question is will he call with a worse ace? I think so. I value bet this river.

[spamuell]

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Here's my range that he'll call a bet with:
AQ-A8, KQ-KT, TT-88, 66.

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You need to discount the Kx hands because they frequently raise the turn. Value betting seems good here.

[zephed]

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Here's my range that he'll call a bet with:
AQ-A8, KQ-KT, TT-88, 66.

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You need to discount the Kx hands because they frequently raise the turn. Value betting seems good here.

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Oh, I think you are correct. Too much typing going into a tiny box here.

At least I got a discussion started.

[zephed]

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Here's my range that he'll call a bet with:
AQ-A8, KQ-KT, TT-88, 66.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to discount the Kx hands because they frequently raise the turn. Value betting seems good here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I already mentioned that I was being generous with the aces. What range of aces do you think should be included here? I think that makes a big difference. I'm leaning towards as low as AT now.

[spamuell]

I already mentioned that I was being generous with the aces. What range of aces do you think should be included here? I think that makes a big difference. I'm leaning towards as low as AT now.

Maybe ATo and A8s. I don't really know, though, it's hard to tell because the villain's stats are unconverged and many players with similar stats can have very different raising standards.

[adamstewart]

I think this is a value bet with your nut-no-pair.

I'd feel pretty confident folding to a raise, too.



(As an aside, if you had something like A,T or A,8 I'd be more inclined to check-call in order to try to induce a bluff).


Adam

[zephed]

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I already mentioned that I was being generous with the aces. What range of aces do you think should be included here? I think that makes a big difference. I'm leaning towards as low as AT now.

Maybe ATo and A8s. I don't really know, though, it's hard to tell because the villain's stats are unconverged and many players with similar stats can have very different raising standards.

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It's a river bet anyways, it's hard to just let them take it after showing no strength anywhere.

There's probably a small bit of value in the river + folding is sucky + plus our mouse was already over the bet/raise button...

[spamuell]

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plus our mouse was already over the bet/raise button...

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Best reason ever.

Of course it's a clear check if multitabling.