Continuation Bets

[Macedon]

I would like to hear people's opinion on Continuation Bets in NL; specifically, how much is reasonable and what can your opponents read from betting too small or too big.

Here is a typical case where this problem might arise:

You have AKs/AQs in late position or the button.
One or two players merely match the BB.
You raise 3 times the BB (or some amount close to that).
The Big Blind and MP1 calls.
[The pot: $9]
Flop: 2-5-9 rainbow

[For the sake of argument, assume that your opponents are average players and their stack sizes are equal to yours. I am looking to reproduce a very generic example here.]

If both opponents check, how much would you lead out and bet?
Pot size: $9
2/3 pot: $6
1/3 pot: $3
Or would you check behind them?

If you bet pot size, aren't you saying, in effect, that your hand is vulnerble, for if you did have a better hand wouldn't you (in their opinion) either bet small to get them to call OR check and let them see a free card so you can punish them on the turn?

If you bet 2/3 of the pot wouldn't your opponents suspect that you don't have THAT decent of a hand and you are trying to buy the pot? Or perhaps the bet is small enough to give them decent enough odds (actual or implied) to see the turn, especially if they were lucky enough to hit one of their low cards.

And if you bet $3, aren't you sending out the signal that you hold a poor hand and are merely hoping that your opponents have a worse hand? Wouldn't that be a reasonable conclusion for your opponents to draw from such a meagre bet? Or would they suspect you have a monster and are trying to suck them in, or induce a re-raise?

As you can see, there are so many variables involved with a continuation bet. Are there any good tips/thoughts anyone has for determining what to throw down? I'd appreciate comments.

[capone0]

Always make the same bet whether you have an overpair or overcards. If you don't vary what you do, they can't possibly put you on a hand. If they do flop something big or call you bet which should be around 2/3rds to me on the flop, then you can either go on if you think your ahead with overs or easily fold. Betting pot can potentially get you pot committed with out many outs or no outs if they potentially have a set. Then again your table image matters and the table matters. There is no definite answer to this question. If there was "everyone" would do it, and that's never true. Also if you keep the same line every time, you might come across as easy to read. So sometimes you bet small when your big, and vice-versa. You bet big against certain opponents. You can't really put "rote-rules" to memory with poker. Opponents, cards, feel always matter.

[TheWorstPlayer]

It's drawless, so I bet 2/3. 3-way I'm betting 90% of the time at least. Unless the guys are very loose in which case I might check behind.

[mosuavea]

[ QUOTE ]
It's drawless, so I bet 2/3. 3-way I'm betting 90% of the time at least. Unless the guys are very loose in which case I might check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats pretty much my line

[BZ_Zorro]

Personally I don't like continuation bets at $25/$50 because people will call with middle/bottom pair far too often. At $100 I do it occassionally.

Continuation bets are used to achieve three things:

1. Take the pot when you have nothing
2. Hide your hand. Good players never know if you have it or are continuation betting.
3. Intimidate your opponents by constantly betting at them. This also provides information as most SSNL players will played scared against an intimidating opponent.

(1) is simple enough. Achieving (2) and (3) requires one very important thing: consistency.

The idea is to give away as little information about your hand as possible. To do that, you have to bet your A high the same way you bet good hands. If you pot a good hand (say an overpair or tptk on the flop), do it with AK too. It can be scary to do so but once you get into the rhythm it'll become automatic.

I normally bet a bit over 2/3 pot for a continuation bet and most other hands, I think it represents a strong hand and allows you to get away cheaply.

Again, I don't recommend coninuation bets below $100NL unless at a tight/scared table. Some more experienced posters may disagree though.

[amoeba]

against multiple opponents I don't like to make a continuation bet. I like checking behind.

[amoeba]

I agree that at lower limits its not that useful.

I'll also give the correlary, at lower limits if you raise preflop with big pocket pair and overcard flops (especially an ace), you can rep the ace with a flop bet but once called, don't try to move opponent off ace weak kicker by representing ace strong kicker with a turn bet.

[RatFink]

If you bet, you need to bet the same way you would if you held KK on that flop. It may hurt, but anything else can spoil this hand and future hands when you do have KK/AA.

Think of your bet as a semi-bluff of a 6 out draw. You may get a fold, you may get a free look at a river card.

Consider who your opponents are. If you are betting a semi-bluff into two calling stations, I'd check behind. They aren't folding and will give you a free card anyway. All the reasons for making the bet are removed.

You'd like to get two folds here, but you're probably not. On a drawless flop people tend to hold on to their pre-flop convictions and will repeat the actions they took their on your aggression then.

[unlucky513]

when i miss a flop like this and its checked around to me, i usually like to bluff at this pot by folding. think about it, your opponents will NEVER put you on AK if you fold!! try it out, its killer.

[mosuavea]

[ QUOTE ]
when i miss a flop like this and its checked around to me, i usually like to bluff at this pot by folding. think about it, your opponents will NEVER put you on AK if you fold!! try it out, its killer.

[/ QUOTE ]
404 - teh funny not found

[unlucky513]

douche bag.

[Macedon]

Thank you for the responses. When giving a Continuation Bet a try, it has been my observation that it works much better with B&M games than it does with the online community.

Perhaps it has something to do with my reputation as a player, or perhaps it the reality of facing faceless people who can care less about making ridiculous calls. (Psychologists could easily explain this phenomena I'm sure)

Either way, I still think you risk giving too much away when you check behind. Sure, you might be beat, or you might be up against a caller who could catch something on later streets, but there does seem to be an EV in betting and taking down the occasional decent pot. And besides, wouldn't your opponents pick up on your weak-tight pattern and start stealing pots from you?

I like the advice to bet the same (2/3 of the pot) whether you have it or not, but I wonder if this can lead to a potential leak in one's game. If an opponent is savy enough to put you on this type of betting, they could milk you on 4th street and 5th street when you offer up continuation-continuation bets.

Here's the conundrum: You want your pre-flop raises to be respected much like you want your continuation bets to be respected for the time will come where you will need to represent a decent hand when you don't yet have one AND there will be a time where you DO have a nice hand and you wouldn't want the whole board ignoring your raise and seeing the flop.

[imported_anacardo]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that at lower limits its not that useful.

I'll also give the correlary, at lower limits if you raise preflop with big pocket pair and overcard flops (especially an ace), you can rep the ace with a flop bet but once called, don't try to move opponent off ace weak kicker by representing ace strong kicker with a turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't find the situation quite as grim as all that.

I find continuation bets extremely useful even at NL $25.
If you really do your homework, you can find the occasional tight player that will fold a better hand (e.g. weak ace to underpair) to your second barrel on the turn. These guys are rather rare at these limits, and of course counter their bluffability w/ solid play in other areas, but they're certainly valuable to note. I'm a big fan of the "represent the ace" tactic, including the near-instant giveup to a caller.

[TheWorstPlayer]

The key is to know what to do on the turn. If the opponent is always calling the flop with any pair, but then folding the turn, then you want to fire two barrels with AK and you will show a great profit. If he is calling turn bets with any pair also then you definitely don't want to fire a second barrel with AK but you can get him to call two streets with any pair so you should be value betting your TT on that Qxxx board. You just have to know your opponents.

[-Skeme-]

Almost always the same as my bet with a monster.

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that at lower limits its not that useful.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I am playing only 25 NL and, except of course when I'm at a table full of calling stations, I make a good amount of money off of continuation bets. At this level alot of times you are betting the best hand even when your cards don't hit. I check behind LP most of the time in multi-way pots on a 9 high, but if a Q or higher flopped I'll bet it and usually take it down. Alot of players late at night (when I've been playing lately after work) will call alot of raises preflop and dump on the flop when they miss.

[amoeba]

I think repping the ace on the flop is fine. but firing a turn shot is often incorrect at these limits.

you are playing against guys who call preflop raises with ace weak kicker so it seems unlikely that he would call the flop then fold to turn bet, especially when most of the time you probably won't be betting full pot on the turn.

[amoeba]

hmm, its been a while since I've played 25nl so maybe you guys are right.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
Again, I don't recommend coninuation bets below $100NL unless at a tight/scared table. Some more experienced posters may disagree though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I make continuation bets all the time if its checked to me. (I play $50 or $25NL) I take down enough hands with continuation bets that its definitely worth continuing.

And I agree that your continuation bets have to be consistant with your good hand bets. 2/3 pot is good.

[BZ_Zorro]

[ QUOTE ]
I make continuation bets all the time if its checked to me.

[/ QUOTE ] What about out of position?

I often bet flops that are checked to me, I don't see that as a continuation bet but rather a position play with any cards.

[Macedon]

Just as an aside...

I believe Dan Harrington mentions in his tournament book that you should bet 1/2 the pot when you are continue betting.

[amoeba]

right I've read that too. I think its good idea against the type of players he is playing against but perhaps not at the limits we play at.

[Macedon]

Amoeba,

No, not that Dan Harrington. I was talking of another Dan Harrington. This guy plays Party Poker at the .50/1.00 limit. He is a 19yr old from California who likes to play after 11pm when his nagging mom has gone up to bed. [He promised her that he would apply for the Walmart stock boy job (tomorrow!), but she doesn't believe him.] Anyway, he wrote a fascinating poker book, which although not widely read, is a real page turner.

On page 36, in the Chapter labeled POT, he suggests betting half the pot and then smoking the rest.

[amoeba]

what the?

I don't get it.

[kurto]

Its so board specific.

If I raised preflop out of position and have only 1-2 callers, I'm going to make a continuation bet 90% of the time regardless of the flop.

If I raise with pocket Jacks and an ace hits on the flop, I'll rerepresent the ace.

If I have AK and miss the flop, I'll represent a Pocket Pair.

I modify this depending on the other players and how I think my image is (have I been running good? do I have a good sized stack? Have I played a hand in a while? Have I shown mosters lately? etc.) at the moment.

Now, if I'm in in EP and I raise with pocket Jacks and the flop is AK8 and there's 4 others in the hand, I'm done with the hand.