First week of the NFL

[keats]

Does Week 1's lack of knowledge of the opponenet, and how your team is going to play favor the offenses or defenses in terms of an over/under?

[callicles]

I would guess the games a bit lower scoring, you might want to look it up. The offenses are probably slightly more rusty then the defenses. I like the line of Baltimore +3 at home against the Colts Week 1. I think it might be what someone on this forum would call my play of the millenium. This will be an important game for the Ravens an payback will be on the minds of the Ravens because the Colts kicked them out of the playoffs last year.

[ttleistdci]

I don't think it favors either. If anything, it favors the really good handicappers who can exploit the fact that a lot of the oddsmakers are still very unsure of some teams.

[keats]

[ QUOTE ]
I would guess the games a bit lower scoring, you might want to look it up. The offenses are probably slightly more rusty then the defenses. I like the line of Baltimore +3 at home against the Colts Week 1. I think it might be what someone on this forum would call my play of the millenium. This will be an important game for the Ravens an payback will be on the minds of the Ravens because the Colts kicked them out of the playoffs last year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the input, but the Ravens missed the playoffs last year. Indy beat Denver and then lost to NE right?

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think it favors either. If anything, it favors the really good handicappers who can exploit the fact that a lot of the oddsmakers are still very unsure of some teams.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget that what you are really trying to exploit as a handicapper in the NFL is the perception of the teams by the public. The best bet I made all of last year was NE pk +100 vs. Indy in the playoffs. I still think about that and can't believe it was possible to get NE at even money at home in the snow.

[ThaHero]

Great advice. I can't believe that was the line!

Another instance is the Chargers. Who'da thunk it? I believe they covered every spread last year and given the public thinking they were a weaker team I'm sure there were good moneylines on them as well. I didnt have the chance to bet on football last year but I cant wait for this year because its my favorite sport.

[callicles]

"Thanks for the input, but the Ravens missed the playoffs last year. Indy beat Denver and then lost to NE right?"

I meant they knocked them out of the playoff race with the loss in Week 15, Baltimore finished 9-7. Oops.

Yes, the Ravens did miss the playoffs but they missed Jamal Lewis for 4 or 5 games due to injury and suspension, J. Lewis also had a bum ankle when they played Indy, they added a #1 and #2 WR they did not have last year, the game with the Colts last year was close and was on Indy's home field track now in Baltimore, and the Ravens D is arguably as good as NE's D with a great secondary to cover the Indy WR's and the Colts did basically nothing to improve their D (a couple rookies is all). I just like this line and I think this should be a pick'em I think the public is in love with the Colts and Manning and that is why the line is favoring Indy. Boller should be better with his WR and a healthy Heap and Lewis.

I sorta like the Ravens as a sleeper AFC Champ pick for what it is worth.

[sublime]

. I still think about that and can't believe it was possible to get NE at even money at home in the snow.

i can almost guarantee that the same people who drove that line down would do it again in a heartbeat.