Who makes an all-in stand with 57o here?

[CarlSpackler]

If I push, I’m going to get called here by the big stack 100% of the time, unless he’s a good player and knows it’s in his best interest to fold and keep me alive. Since my hand was terrible, and the other ss was going to be in the blinds the next 2 hands, I decided to fold. At worst, I get to choose one of the next 3 hands to push against probably 2 opponents. In the best case scenario the other ss busts, although this is very doubtful unless he’s a complete donkey. Due to the stack sizes at the table, I was obviously just trying to sneak into the money at this point.

33sng – bb t300

Table Table 11993 (Real Money) -- Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: jimmyd3404 (1435)
Seat 2: HERO (500)
Seat 7: Gromitt (5085)
Seat 10: JohnD226 (980)
HERO posts small blind (150)
Gromitt posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif ]
JohnD226 folds.
jimmyd3404 folds.
HERO folds.

[adanthar]

Yeah, I really hate getting 2.5:1 as a short stack against a random hand so I fold.

[schilling38]

this is pretty fishy of me to ask but the 2.5:1 comes from the fact that if he pushes and is called then there is 1000 in the pot and he risked his last 350 with the push so its 1000/350 or 2.8 to 1. Is this math right?

[schwza]

yay, ICM analysis!

if hero folds he has 350 left. equity = .09
if he pushes and wins he has 1000. equity = .185.

his equity is .405 against a random hand (for simplicity, count as .405 win and the rest lose instead of chops). so his equity if he pushes is .405 * .185 < .09 so he should fold.

so according to icm, it's a fold.

if hero doubles up, he'll have 1k on the button, so he has a chance to steal blinds on the next two hands, whereas if he folds he'll probably fold the next two hands and hope someone busts, or else hope to get lucky on the BB. so is this a case we should ignore icm and push? i think it probably is. partly b/c i think that the other players will play very tightly for 1 orbit, probably much tighter than ICM implicity assumes they'll play.

so i'd push.

btw, 35/100 = 1/2.85, so the odds are 1.85:1.

[schilling38]

[ QUOTE ]

btw, 35/100 = 1/2.85, so the odds are 1.85:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this. How is 350 to win 1000 1.85:1 ?

[schwza]

1000 in the pot total, so 650 of other money. 650:350 = 1.8:1. i personally always think of it in terms of 350/1000 = need 35% equity (or 1/2.85), but the more standard way to write it is 1.85:1.

[schilling38]

thank you for the explanation

[schwza]

no problem.